There was a neat piece on the PBS NewsHour last evening on trying to figure out who will be elected President in November. They talked about three approaches: polls, models and markets.
Watch Political Polls, Professors Predict the Presidential Race on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.
I don’t think any of those can take into account things like Romney’s “47%” remark, or some surprise world event. Also they do not take into account campaign “get out the vote” efforts on election day.
I have my own forecasting method that literally takes everything into account. I asked, “Will Barack Obama be re-elected?”
While I got the photo above from the Internet, this is the answer I received in the single trial I made with my real Magic 8-ball™.