Main Menu

The occasional open thread: too epic to fail

Put your Obama conspiracy comments that don’t relate to the current articles here. This thread will close in two weeks.

113 Responses to The occasional open thread: too epic to fail

  1. avatar
    Rickey July 31, 2016 at 9:02 pm #

    Not exactly on topic, but we don’t have an active open thread at the moment:

    “I was in Russia, I was in Moscow recently. I spoke indirectly and directly with President Putin, who could not have been nicer.” – Donald Trump at the National Press Club, May 27, 2014

    “I have no relationship with Putin. I don’t think I’ve ever met him. I never met him. I don’t think I’ve ever met him…I have never spoken to him on the phone, no.” Donald Trump when interviewed by George Stephanopoulos, July 31, 2016

    So was he lying in 2014, or is he lying now?

  2. avatar
    jdkinpa July 31, 2016 at 10:34 pm #

    So was he lying in 2014, or is he lying now?

    Then and now.

  3. avatar
    Rickey August 1, 2016 at 2:00 am #

    In the prior open thread, Doc linked to a Supreme Court case which disbarred attorney Sibley lost on May 2 and wondered what it was about. It was the case in which he was trying to get permission to release the D.C. madam’s phone records.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/us-supreme-court-rejects-dc-madam-attorney-bid-to-release-customer-records/2016/05/02/775993f2-109c-11e6-93ae-50921721165d_story.html

  4. avatar
    Keith August 1, 2016 at 12:23 pm #

    This could be the ultimate secret to a healthy comment posting career.

    Remember, you didn’t say it, is was Sphinxter!

  5. avatar
    Joey August 1, 2016 at 3:11 pm #

    I’m wondering, is it time to declare victory by technical knockout over the evil forces of birtherreport/obamareleaseyourrecords?
    I can access that site about 1 out of every ten times I try

  6. avatar
    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater August 1, 2016 at 3:47 pm #

    So Joel Gilbert’s nonsense is spreading around again. With the NY Post posting the naked picture of Melania Trump birthers are now trying to talk about Obama’s mom and the fake nudes:
    http://www.bizpacreview.com/2016/07/31/ny-post-publishes-x-rated-photos-melania-trump-obamas-mom-brought-372511

  7. avatar
    Thrifty August 1, 2016 at 3:56 pm #

    Hilary is getting her convention bounce and is ahead in the polls again. That of course means Orly is back to cherry picking polls that favor Trump, and complaining that polls that favor Hilary are biased because there were more Democrats included than Republicans.

    It warms the cockles of my heart that as passionate as Orly is about Trump, she lives in California so her vote for him will be utterly meaningless.

  8. avatar
    Rickey August 1, 2016 at 4:38 pm #

    Thrifty:
    Hilary is getting her convention bounce and is ahead in the polls again.That of course means Orly is back to cherry picking polls that favor Trump, and complaining that polls that favor Hilary are biased because there were more Democrats included than Republicans.

    And now the VFW is ripping Trump:

    VFW Supports Gold Star Families

    To ridicule a Gold Star Mother is out-of-bounds

    August 01, 2016

    WASHINGTON — Presidential candidate Donald J. Trump has a history of lashing out after being attacked, but to ridicule a Gold Star Mother is out-of-bounds, said the new national commander of the near 1.7 million-member Veterans of Foreign Wars of the United States and its Auxiliary.

    “Election year or not, the VFW will not tolerate anyone berating a Gold Star family member for exercising his or her right of speech or expression,” said Brian Duffy, of Louisville, Ky., who was elected July 27 to lead the nation’s oldest and largest major war veterans organization.

    “There are certain sacrosanct subjects that no amount of wordsmithing can repair once crossed,” he said. “Giving one’s life to nation is the greatest sacrifice, followed closely by all Gold Star families, who have a right to make their voices heard.”

  9. avatar
    Rickey August 1, 2016 at 4:42 pm #

    Trump is already making up excuses for why he will lose in November.

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-general-election-rigged-potential-challenge

  10. avatar
    Thrifty August 1, 2016 at 4:53 pm #

    What I don’t get is how this is even close, when Trump somehow manages to piss off virtually every group of people that he can. I can understand the Trump devotees who got him to the nomination. And I can understand a lot of people essentially voting against Clinton in the deeper red states. But how is it even close in Florida and Ohio?

    What do you guys think of the New Hampshire results? Where do you think it’ll go come Election Day? 538 is calling it 50/50 in their Polls-Plus forecast, and New York Times rates it as “50% Republican”…. It all gives the impression of a close race in NH. But then Clinton is averaging +3.7 in NH according to RealClearPolitics.

    It’s confusing the heck out of me, and for every election map I plot out on 270towin.com, I can get Clinton up to 269 doing all the states I think are safe for her. New Hampshire puts her over the top but it’s hard to read….

    Rickey: And now the VFW is ripping Trump:

    SNIPPED FOR BREVITY

  11. avatar
    Rickey August 1, 2016 at 5:19 pm #

    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater:
    So Joel Gilbert’s nonsense is spreading around again.With the NY Post posting the naked picture of Melania Trump birthers are now trying to talk about Obama’s mom and the fake nudes:

    If Trump wins, Melania will be the only First Lady we have ever seen sans clothing. And to think that the right wing ripped Michelle for showing her arms!

  12. avatar
    Scientist August 1, 2016 at 6:28 pm #

    Thrifty: What do you guys think of the New Hampshire results? Where do you think it’ll go come Election Day? 538 is calling it 50/50 in their Polls-Plus forecast, and New York Times rates it as “50% Republican”…. It all gives the impression of a close race in NH. But then Clinton is averaging +3.7 in NH according to RealClearPolitics.

    I honestly think Hillary will win every state Obama took in 2012 plus a few (NC, and maybe one of AZ, GA or MO). Trump’s is trending DOWN and everything he’s done in the last few days is accelerating that.

    There is simply no way that taking on Gold Star parents is a winning strategy. His ego couldn’t just say, “hey some people like me, some don’t”

  13. avatar
    justlw August 1, 2016 at 6:35 pm #

    Headline from today: “Trump Veterans Adviser Attacks Khizr Khan As A ‘Muslim Brotherhood Agent’”

    Okay, so who exactly is Trump’s Veterans Adviser, an “official adviser to the Trump campaign”? He’s Al Baldasaro, a name that didn’t ring a bell to me. Oh, but hey, he’s “a New Hampshire state representative”. Now that sets off alarm bells.

    And sure enough, he was part of the 2011 birther hot mess there. And he’s already on Doc’s A-Z list.

  14. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 1, 2016 at 8:08 pm #

    It gets worse…

    Baldasaro cited an article by Walid Shoebat, someone who says Obama is definitely a Muslim because of his name, also a birther.

    http://www.obamaconspiracy.org/2011/07/is-birther-terrorism-expert-a-fake/

    justlw: He’s Al Baldasaro, a name that didn’t ring a bell to me. Oh, but hey, he’s “a New Hampshire state representative”. Now that sets off alarm bells.

    And sure enough, he was part of the 2011 birther hot mess there. And he’s already on Doc’s A-Z list.

  15. avatar
    Crustacean August 1, 2016 at 8:23 pm #

    If you throw Roger Stone into the mix (see article linked above by Rickey), you’ve got this election’s Three Stooges of political dirty tricks. One can only imagine what they’ll come up with in October!

    Dr. Conspiracy:
    It gets worse…

    Baldasaro cited an article by Walid Shoebat, someone who says Obama is definitely a Muslim because of his name.

    http://www.obamaconspiracy.org/2011/07/is-birther-terrorism-expert-a-fake/

  16. avatar
    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater August 1, 2016 at 10:25 pm #

    Remember the times when Republicans hated Obama because he was a narcissist? Oh great times

  17. avatar
    Nancy Ruth Owens Jones August 2, 2016 at 12:22 am #

    Hillary appears to be having mini-strokes. I ignored the comments at first. But, now? Wow! She definitely is having medical issues of some sort.

    On a side note, Breaking, China is getting very active.

    Thrifty:
    Hilary is getting her convention bounce and is ahead in the polls again.That of course means Orly is back to cherry picking polls that favor Trump, and complaining that polls that favor Hilary are biased because there were more Democrats included than Republicans.

    It warms the cockles of my heart that as passionate as Orly is about Trump, she lives in California so her vote for him will be utterly meaningless.

  18. avatar
    jdkinpa August 2, 2016 at 1:58 am #

    Donald Trump’s New Conspiracy Theory: General Election Might Be ‘Rigged’

    http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/donald-trumps-new-conspiracy-theory-general-election-might-be-rigged

    Wonder if the boys and gals over at Birfer central know about this.

  19. avatar
    Lupin August 2, 2016 at 4:47 am #

    jdkinpa:
    Donald Trump’s New Conspiracy Theory: General Election Might Be ‘Rigged’

    http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/donald-trumps-new-conspiracy-theory-general-election-might-be-rigged

    Wonder if the boys and gals over at Birfer central know about this.

    Looking forward to the Trump riots of November 2016. I have faith that your military will eventually restore order, but fear that Cinnamon Hitler might flee to Paraguay.

  20. avatar
    Lupin August 2, 2016 at 4:50 am #

    Thrifty: What I don’t get is how this is even close, when Trump somehow manages to piss off virtually every group of people that he can. I can understand the Trump devotees who got him to the nomination. And I can understand a lot of people essentially voting against Clinton in the deeper red states. But how is it even close in Florida and Ohio?

    I usually rely on the Princeton Election Consortium. According to them, yes, the situation in FL is iffy, but not in OH, where Hillary leads.

    http://election.princeton.edu/

  21. avatar
    Scientist August 2, 2016 at 6:35 am #

    Lupin: Looking forward to the Trump riots of November 2016. I have faith that your military will eventually restore order, but fear that Cinnamon Hitler might flee to Paraguay.

    Paraguay is building a wall now and they are going to make Trump pay for it.

  22. avatar
    Thrifty August 2, 2016 at 8:56 am #

    I’m hearing there are now reported cases of the Zika virus in Florida. I’m waiting for Trump to blame it on immigrants, even though everyone know it is carried by mosquitoes. I really want to believe Trump and his supporters wouldn’t be that stupid, but you can’t really put anything past them now.

  23. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 2, 2016 at 9:22 am #

    I’ve never read of a case of someone being bitten by an immigrant, although it may have happened.

    Thrifty: I’m waiting for Trump to blame it on immigrants,

  24. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 2, 2016 at 9:26 am #

    Now that leads one to imagine a conspiracy where Donald Trump is not running for president, but rather is out to destroy the country with a campaign that sows hatred and division, and then sparks massive civil unrest when he loses, claiming election fraud (despite the fact that most states are run by Republicans),

    jdkinpa: Donald Trump’s New Conspiracy Theory: General Election Might Be ‘Rigged’

  25. avatar
    Scientist August 2, 2016 at 9:27 am #

    Thrifty:
    I’m hearing there are now reported cases of the Zika virus in Florida.I’m waiting for Trump to blame it on immigrants, even though everyone know it is carried by mosquitoes.I really want to believe Trump and his supporters wouldn’t be that stupid, but you can’t really put anything past them now.

    It may have been brought by migrants from Puerto Rico, where there are many cases, but they are Americans, not immigrants. Or by US tourists returning from infected areas.

    Now that it is here and in the mosquito population, only mosquito eradication, or, eventually, a vaccine, can stop it from spreading into any area where the Aedes mosquito can live. I am glad they can’t survive a NY winter.

  26. avatar
    RanTalbott August 2, 2016 at 10:34 am #

    Dr. Conspiracy: I’ve never read of a case of someone being bitten by an immigrant, although it may have happened.

    I’ll bet that, if you asked “John Miller”, he’d tell you it’s often happened to Trump. Multiple times in a single night 😉

  27. avatar
    RanTalbott August 2, 2016 at 10:38 am #

    Thrifty: I’m waiting for Trump to blame it on immigrants, even though everyone know it is carried by mosquitoes.

    Obviously, they must be immigrant mosquitoes, because no red-blood-suckin’ Murkin skeeter would dishonor the flag by carryin’ a furrin virus.

  28. avatar
    RanTalbott August 2, 2016 at 10:59 am #

    Dr. Conspiracy: despite the fact that most states are run by Republicans

    Or because they are: don’t forget that Trump won the primaries in large part because the “GOPe” is seen as corrupt, too. And terrified that Trump will upset their apple train. Or derail their gravy cart. Or somethin’.

    So it makes perfect sense to the Trumpkins that they’d conspire with the commie-fag-junkie DemocRATs to deny Trump his rightful ascension to the throne of the Seven Kingdoms landslide victory.

    I think this is just another case of Trump spotting a conspiracy theory he can exploit.

  29. avatar
    J.D. Sue August 2, 2016 at 11:14 am #

    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: Remember the times when Republicans hated Obama because he was a narcissist? Oh great times


    Yup. And remember when Republicans hated Obama because he was a celebrity?

  30. avatar
    Thrifty August 2, 2016 at 11:16 am #

    Or when they hated Bill Clinton because he was a philanderer?

    J.D. Sue: —
    Yup.And remember when Republicans hated Obama because he was a celebrity?

  31. avatar
    Thrifty August 2, 2016 at 11:50 am #

    I’m not following either of you here. Their data on Ohio shows Clinton +4% there, but it links to the Huffington Post’s trend line for Ohio, which shows them practically tied, with Clinton ahead by only 0.4%

    Maybe they’re using a methodology that is more complex than just poll numbers, but I’m looking at RealClearPolitics and seeing mostly ties, with Clinton +4% only in a CBS poll.

    But these are also old polls. They’re all pre-DNC. We needs better Ohio data.

    Lupin: I usually rely on the Princeton Election Consortium. According to them, yes, the situation in FL is iffy, but not in OH, where Hillary leads.

    http://election.princeton.edu/

  32. avatar
    Thrifty August 2, 2016 at 11:55 am #

    Scientist: I honestly think Hillary will win every state Obama took in 2012 plus a few (NC, and maybe one of AZ, GA or MO).Trump’s is trending DOWN and everything he’s done in the last few days is accelerating that.

    Arizona MAYBE. It’s still red, but very lightly so. But I don’t believe for a second that Trump will win Georgia or Missouri. Trump is ahead in virtually every poll in both states, and I’m seeing double digit leads in Missouri.

    There is simply no way that taking on Gold Star parents is a winning strategy.His ego couldn’t just say, “hey some people like me, some don’t”

    We keep saying that the next thing Trump says will torpedo his campaign, and we’re constantly wrong. It feels like our version of “any day now”.

  33. avatar
    jdkinpa August 2, 2016 at 4:29 pm #

    Now that leads one to imagine a conspiracy where Donald Trump is not running for president, but rather is out to destroy the country with a campaign that sows hatred and division, and then sparks massive civil unrest when he loses, claiming election fraud (despite the fact that most states are run by Republicans),

    The possibilities for imaginary conspiracies truly are limitless. But thankfully, I’m confident that the majority of voters actually live in the real world.

  34. avatar
    RanTalbott August 2, 2016 at 5:17 pm #

    Thrifty: We keep saying that the next thing Trump says will torpedo his campaign, and we’re constantly wrong. It feels like our version of “any day now”.

    Oh, it’s been torpedoed several times. Where we’ve been wrong is in assuming that it would sink like a normal campaign would have.

    The difference is that his “ship” has more, and better, compartments than a normal one. So, even though some have been holed, and some even flooded (e.g., most non-white groups), there are enough still intact (racists and other xenophobes, low-skill workers screwed by foreign competition, social conservatives screwed by the GOPe’s false promises, and other conservatives unhappy with societal changes) to keep if from sinking. But it’s riding low, and they haven’t been able to pump the water out faster than it’s coming in.

    In the end, it will limp into port somewhat (but not as far as we’d like) behind the less-leaky SS Clinton, unless something disastrous like a major terrorist attack or other crisis torpedoes it, or the Trumptanic hits a giant iceberg that rips open some of its still-intact compartments. Both of which are unlikely, but still real, possibilities.

    This is different from “any day now” in that it’s a mistake of not recognizing abnormal circumstances that change what would be the normal impact of real events, rather than believing that (mostly) fantasy “events” will have an effect in the real world.

  35. avatar
    Scientist August 2, 2016 at 5:39 pm #

    RanTalbott: Oh, it’s been torpedoed several times. Where we’ve been wrong is in assuming that it would sink like a normal campaign would have.

    There is a difference between the primaries and the general election, both in the audience you need to reach and the skill-level required. It’s like the difference between college football or basketball and the NFL or the NBA. You have to change your game. Many superb college players fail in the pros because they are unable to do so.

    Trump has so far been unable to change his primary game into a general election game. And frankly, with each day, he is getting worse not better.

  36. avatar
    Rickey August 2, 2016 at 6:46 pm #

    Scientist: There is a difference between the primaries and the general election, both in the audience you need to reach and the skill-level required.It’s like the difference between college football or basketball and the NFL or the NBA.You have to change your game.Many superb college players fail in the pros because they are unable to do so.

    Trump has so far been unable to change his primary game into a general election game.And frankly, with each day, he is getting worse not better.

    With the post-convention polls coming in, Nate Silver now has Clinton with a 68% chance of winning.

  37. avatar
    justlw August 2, 2016 at 6:51 pm #

    Scientist: I honestly think Hillary will win every state Obama took in 2012 plus a few

    Down at the bottom of The FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast page, there’s a section called “Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios” which has their odds on some interesting side bets, including:

    • Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 – 80.2%

    …but also…

    • Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 – 79.5%

  38. avatar
    RanTalbott August 2, 2016 at 7:27 pm #

    Scientist: Trump has so far been unable to change his primary game into a general election game.

    Yeah, that, too 😉

    I don’t think that’ll be the “iceberg”, though. Or even an exploding “torpedo”.

    Last summer and fall, I was taunting Trumpkins with the unwisely-confident prediction that the primary voters would “sober up” as voting day approached and dump Trump the way they had dumped “protest” or “novelty” candidates in the past. I think the fact that they didn’t do that means that most of them will stick with him in November.

    His continuing parade of gaffes will cost him some people who are supporting him solely out of party loyalty (one of McCain’s grandkids just announced that she’s not switching parties, but is voting for Clinton this time because Trump is beyond the pale). It may even cost him some of the less hardcore Hillary-haters. But the main damage will be keeping some undecideds from taking his side. So, barring some really dramatic unexpected event, I don’t see either Clinton or Trump rising or falling a whole lot in the polls. Clinton’s margin will widen a little, but it won’t be the Goldwater-scale blowout that nominating a clown should produce, and the race will stay close enough for a major negative (for Clinton, as perceived by the voters) to flip it.

  39. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 2, 2016 at 9:21 pm #

    Some good Hillary debunking from Snopes:

    http://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-freed-child-rapist-laughed-about-it/

  40. avatar
    Roald August 3, 2016 at 9:08 am #

    In case anyone missed it, Corey Lewandowski tried to revive birtherism yesterday on CNN.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/corey-lewandowski-revives-trumps-birther-claims-about-obama-and-gets-brutally-smacked-down/

  41. avatar
    Rickey August 3, 2016 at 11:07 am #

    This story about the impossibility of implementing Trump’s proposed Muslim ban includes a quote from birther John Sampson, who says “What are we going to do, tattoo the crescent on those who are Muslim — are you nuts?”

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/experts-trump-s-muslim-ban-would-cripple-immigration-system-nearly-n621921

  42. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 3, 2016 at 12:04 pm #

    Russian hacking attack on WordPress blogs.

    https://www.wordfence.com/blog/2016/08/profile-russian-attack-ip

  43. avatar
    J.D. Sue August 3, 2016 at 5:55 pm #

    Finally, an answer to the question — how small are Trump’s hands?

    “Editors [at The Hollywood Reporter] have printed a life-size image of Trump’s hands, which they created based on a bronzed handprint hanging in the New York branch of Madame Tussauds Wax Museum.

    The handprint has been there since 1997, after artists from the museum made impressions of Trump for a wax figure. You can find a full-sized, printable version [see link]”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-handprint-size_us_57a23518e4b0104052a0cf68?section=&

    Today, people are taking selfies of their own hands overlaying Trump’s printed hand. https://twitter.com/hashtag/trumpmyhand?f=tweets&vertical=news&src=hash

  44. avatar
    J.D. Sue August 4, 2016 at 4:09 am #

    Happy Birthday, Mr. President!

  45. avatar
    Thrifty August 4, 2016 at 5:08 am #

    Homer and Marge Simpson consider who to vote for:

    https://youtu.be/tLSy8Tl2bjs

  46. avatar
    Thrifty August 4, 2016 at 5:21 am #

    I think there are 2 types of people voting for Trump.

    1) The milder people who don’t really hate him but are more voting against Clinton than for Trump.
    2) The diehard, true blue Trump fans.

    The first group are largely fairly rational people and when Trump loses they’ll grouse a little (because they dislike Clinton), but then pretty much go back to their normal lives and wait for 2020.

    The second group will spend years complaining and hatching conspiracy theories about how the election was rigged. Blog posts will be written. Comment wars will explode all over the Internet with a lot of insanity. Maybe a handful will turn violent. We all know that when a group of really emotional people get together, things can turn ugly. We have police forces for that. I can envision a few smallish groups getting out of control, especially right after the election, but nothing on the scale of a full scale riot (like the kind that would require the National Guard). Cops know how to handle rowdy crowds. Most people of that ilk are old, tired, and kinda cowardly.

    I seem to remember a Birther guy who made a lot of REALLY angry Youtube videos railing against the illegitimacy of Obama’s presidency. These became increasingly incendiary, I think to the point where he said he was gonna go to Washington and, I dunno, put his boot up Obama’s ass or something. Then the Secret Service paid him a visit and he quieted down real quick.

    Undoubtedly, these are the seeds of the next breed of conspiracy theories. There are no rumors surrounding Hillary Clinton’s parentage (because she’s white and has a normal name), but there are sure to be plenty about voter fraud. Without a doubt, any justices she nominates to the Supreme Court will be implicated as co-conspirators (much like Kagan was dragged into Birtherism).

    Lupin: Looking forward to the Trump riots of November 2016. I have faith that your military will eventually restore order, but fear that Cinnamon Hitler might flee to Paraguay.

  47. avatar
    Thrifty August 4, 2016 at 1:01 pm #

    Orly still having a good time cherry picking the polls. She is boasting about a USC/LA Times Poll that shows Trump and Clinton “in a virtual tie”, and of course ignoring every other one that shows Clinton ahead. Including the Fox News poll showing her 10 points ahead.

  48. avatar
    Joey August 4, 2016 at 1:34 pm #

    From politico.com:

    CNN contributor Corey Lewandowski: Was Obama a citizen when he went to Harvard?

    During an animated discussion about his former boss Tuesday night on CNN, former Donald Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski suggested that President Barack Obama might be concealing his true birthplace by withholding his transcripts from his time at Harvard University.

    The discussion began when Angela Rye, a former executive director of the Congressional Black Caucus, responded on “CNN Tonight with Don Lemon” to Lewandowski’s criticism of President Barack Obama calling Trump “unfit” for office earlier in the day by remarking upon the Republican nominee’s history with the so-called birther movement.

    “Did he ever release his transcripts from Harvard?” Lewandowski asked, after Rye referenced Trump’s past remark that Obama got into Harvard as a result of affirmative action.

    Rye hit back, referring to Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns.

    “You raised the issue. I’m just asking,” Lewandowski said. “You raised the issue. Did he, did he ever release his transcripts or his admission to Harvard University. You raised the issue, so just yes or no? The answer is no.”

    “In this moment, I’m going to Beyoncé you. Boy, bye,” Rye responded. “You’re so out of line right now. Tell your candidate to release his tax returns.”

    “Don’t raise the issue if you don’t want to address it,” Lewandowski said. “That’s what happens.”

    Rye shot back, “Two words: Tax. Returns.”

    “Harvard University. Transcripts,” Lewandowski retorted. “You raised the issue. Did he ever release them—“

    Rye then referred to the fact that Obama was the first black editor of Harvard Law Review, as Lemon tried to steer the conversation by asking Lewandowski why it was germane to bring up Obama’s Harvard transcripts.

    “Look, the only reason it’s germane is because she brought the issue up and said Donald Trump raised the issue of his Harvard transcripts,” Lewandowski, a paid CNN contributor, said. “And I just simply said … have those ever been released, and the question was did he get in as a U.S. citizen or was he brought into Harvard University as a citizen who wasn’t from this country?”

    The White House released Obama’s long-form birth certificate in 2011 showing that he was indeed born in Hawaii after Trump stoked the prospect of the president being born elsewhere.

    Off-screen, Rye exclaimed, “Oh, my God.”

    “Whoa. No, no, no, no, no. Don? Don?” panelist Bakari Sellers said.

    Sellers called Lewandowski’s suggestion “blatantly disrespectful,” adding, “You think he’s Kenyan. You think he’s not from here.”

    “I didn’t say that,” Lewandowski said.

    “You just said that, you said that you think he’s not from this country,” Sellers responded.

    Rye interjected, “So where’s he from, Corey? If he’s not from the United States, where’s he from?”

    “Hawaii isn’t a country!” she said with a laugh.

    “You’re the one who’s raised the issue of his race,” Lewandowski said. “So if that’s the issue you’re still dealing with, that’s your problem, not mine.”

  49. avatar
    donna August 4, 2016 at 10:44 pm #

    55 Photos of Barack Obama on His 55th Birthday

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/gallery/2016/08/55-photos-of-barack-obama-on-his-55th-birthday-000665?slide=0

  50. avatar
    Rickey August 5, 2016 at 1:59 am #

    J.D. Sue:
    Finally, an answer to the question — how small are Trump’s hands?

    “Editors [at The Hollywood Reporter] have printed a life-size image of Trump’s hands, which they created based on a bronzed handprint hanging in the New York branch of Madame Tussauds Wax Museum.

    The handprint has been there since 1997, after artists from the museum made impressions of Trump for a wax figure. You can find a full-sized, printable version [see link]”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-handprint-size_us_57a23518e4b0104052a0cf68?section=&

    Today, people are taking selfies of their own hands overlaying Trump’s printed hand.https://twitter.com/hashtag/trumpmyhand?f=tweets&vertical=news&src=hash

    My hands are bigger than Trump’s, and I don’t have particularly large hands.

  51. avatar
    Rickey August 5, 2016 at 2:11 am #

    Thrifty:
    Orly still having a good time cherry picking the polls.She is boasting about a USC/LA Times Poll that shows Trump and Clinton “in a virtual tie”, and of course ignoring every other one that shows Clinton ahead.Including the Fox News poll showing her 10 points ahead.

    The USC/LA Times poll also is a weekly tracking poll, which means that Thursday morning’s results included polling done during the last day of the Democratic convention. Hillary’s number has improved every day since July 28, so there will be a bigger spread in her favor in a few days.

  52. avatar
    Rickey August 5, 2016 at 2:30 am #

    Joey:
    From politico.com:

    CNN contributor Corey Lewandowski: Was Obama a citizen when he went to Harvard?

    One thing that is unclear to me is why Trump and other birthers believe that it would have been advantageous for Obama to attend Columbia and/or Harvard as a foreign student. Is there any evidence that either university gave special preference or special financial aid to foreign students?

  53. avatar
    Scientist August 5, 2016 at 6:33 am #

    Rickey: One thing that is unclear to me is why Trump and other birthers believe that it would have been advantageous for Obama to attend Columbia and/or Harvard as a foreign student.

    Ignorance.

    It’s harder, not easier, to get accepted as a foreign student. Here’s data from MIT for 2012. Acceptance rate for US students – 10.8%; for foreign students – 3%
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kat-cohen/the-truth-about-applying-_b_3654246.html

    And they aren’t eligible for federal grants and loans, which US students often depend on. Most come from wealthy families that pay full freight. A few get aid from their home governments who want them to acquire specific skills, with conditions that require them to return home. Is the claim that Kenya paid for Obama to go to school, when he had never even been there? Or Indonesia when he hadn’t lived there in a decade or more? There may be a few charities that will help in a few cases, but the pot of money is tiny compared to that for US students.

    And of course, transcripts don’t list citizenship anywhere. They list courses taken and grades obtained. Perhaps Corey should examine his own. Or, perhaps he never went to college, or his grades were so bad, he can’t bear to look at them.

    And where are Trump’s transcripts? He claims to have done brilliantly at Penn, but some classmates say differently. Prove it Donnie boy…

  54. avatar
    Thrifty August 5, 2016 at 8:58 am #

    And of course, in Orly-world, those will be polls by “the corrupt globalist media”, which intentionally poll more Democrats than Republicans.

    She thinks this is all a big scheme to disenfranchise Trump supporters. I don’t think she knows what that word means. Polls are non-binding. If these were truly all manipulated polls, the results would show a Trump victory on Election Day anyway.

    I’d tell her, but between censorship and technical glitches, actually communication with Orly is impossible.

    Rickey: The USC/LA Times poll also is a weekly tracking poll, which means that Thursday morning’s results included polling done during the last day of the Democratic convention. Hillary’s number has improved every day since July 28, so there will be a bigger spread in her favor in a few days.

  55. avatar
    Nancy Ruth Owens Jones August 5, 2016 at 10:13 am #

    August 5.

    Happy Birthday, Mr. President!

    Remember, it’s off by one day. I couldn’t find a boy born on the same date as Allen/Obama.

  56. avatar
    justlw August 5, 2016 at 12:09 pm #

    Scientist: And [foreign students] aren’t eligible for federal grants and loans, which US students often depend on.

    Such as the Obamas. Whom we know had such loans, because we can see in their tax returns where they paid them off.

    Corey, you really ought to ask Donald about why he isn’t releasing his tax returns.

  57. avatar
    Scientist August 5, 2016 at 1:14 pm #

    Assuming there is no never-before-seen turnaround and Trump loses, I believe birtherism will have played a significant, if indirect, role. Birtherism created a climate where anything, no matter how false and outrageous, would be swallowed whole by a segment of the population, but not one big enough to win a general election with-as Obama proved. It allowed one spouting that brand of idiocy to capture enough votes to win primaries against a divided field. It also made it almost impossible to stop and pivot to issues the majority care about.

    I was frankly worried that Trump would pivot to the one issue that he could have possibly won on (though the demographics were always against him)-trade. He’s dangerously wrong on that as on everything else, but it was an issue that might have won over swing voters.

    Now, he’s shown himself to be mentally unstable, unqualified to have his finger on the nuclear button. You can’t undo that. Even if he could behave reasonably over the next 90 days-and he can’t-he’s shown his instability and no sane person could trust him in a crisis, He also brought out an unprecedented consensus of experts, especially Republicans and apolitical types, who have never said in any previous election that a candidate was a danger to national security the way that Trump is. They aren’t going to change that position if he tries to pretend to sanity for the next 3 months.

    It’s schadenfreude writ large.

  58. avatar
    Thrifty August 5, 2016 at 2:30 pm #

    Things are definitely looking good for Hillary Clinton and, by extension, the whole United States. The FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus model, which is the most conservative of their 3 models and gives Clinton the worst odds, still gives her a 74.8% chance.

    The New York Times predictor gives her an 80% chance, and has taken states such as Colorado and Pennsylvania out of their list of swing states. That model maps out 10 swing states (though I disagree with calling Georgia a swing state — I’m convinced Trump will win Georgia). They calculate 998 possible combinations that give Clinton the win, and only 24 that give it to Trump (also 2 scenarios which lead to a 269-269 tie). Losing Florida instantly knocks Trump out.

    I am still the eternal pessimist and won’t really rest easy until I read something in the news referring to “President-elect Hillary Clinton”.

    Also I really hope the Republicans do something to stop a maniac like Trump from getting this far ever again.

  59. avatar
    Scientist August 5, 2016 at 3:41 pm #

    Most amazing poll numbers of the day-In the McClatchy-Marist poll among voters under 30, Trump comes in FOURTH, behind Hillary, Johnson and Stein.

    See page 11 here http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article93789227.ece/BINARY/Complete%20data%20for%20the%20McClatchy-Marist%20Poll

  60. avatar
    Joey August 5, 2016 at 5:15 pm #

    Rickey: One thing that is unclear to me is why Trump and other birthers believe that it would have been advantageous for Obama to attend Columbia and/or Harvard as a foreign student. Is there any evidence that either university gave special preference or special financial aid to foreign students?

    Nope.
    And on top of that, anyone attending school as a foreign student needs an F-1 Student Visa to enter the country and attend school. They also need to fill out an I-20 form “Certficate Of Eligibility For non-immigrant student status.”
    Just as President Obama’s father’s complete file with Immigration and Naturalization Service was released under a Freedom of Information Act request, no evidence of foreign student status has ever been found for Barack Obama, II. Without an F-1 Student Visa, there is no public or private scholarship financial aid because you don’t legally qualify as a foreign student.

  61. avatar
    Keith August 5, 2016 at 9:55 pm #

    Thrifty: I am still the eternal pessimist and won’t really rest easy until I read something in the news referring to “President-elect Hillary Clinton”.

    I agree. The biggest danger is complacency. If people start thinking its a fait-accompli and their vote won’t matter, then that is the scenario that can give it to Trump.

    Scientist: Most amazing poll numbers of the day-In the McClatchy-Marist poll among voters under 30, Trump comes in FOURTH, behind Hillary, Johnson and Stein.

    And these are the folks who must especially not fall into complacency. Remember BREXIT. After the BREXIT vote the ‘young voters’ who had voted overwhelmingly to stay were running around complaining about what the ‘older voters’ had done to them. But those ‘young voters’ didn’t turn out to actually vote. Had they turned out close to the average of the other demographics, then the BREXIT vote would have gone the other way.

    Ya gotta vote folks, no matter how far ahead your candidate is in the polls. Ya gotta vote.

  62. avatar
    RanTalbott August 6, 2016 at 3:59 am #

    Thrifty: Also I really hope the Republicans do something to stop a maniac like Trump from getting this far ever again.

    Well, if they could get him to stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue, they could shoot him and claim self-defense. “He threatened us, Your Honor! We’ve got it on video!”. 😉

  63. avatar
    Keith August 6, 2016 at 11:09 am #

    I quite enjoy reading PoliticusUsa.

    It is unabashedly Moderate Democratic leaning (i.e. they strongly supported Hillary over Bernie) and poke vicious fun at Republican foibles. They take exceptional aim at the Koch Brothers and now the Trumpster fire – so you have to approach it with that bias in mind.

    One thing I enjoy is their vast skill (not) at headline writing; in truth they only have about four headlines:
    => “Trump May Have Just Handed The [Senate/House/Election] To Democrats by [insert latest atrocity here]”,
    => “Trump [goes totally insane/throws a tantrum] while [insert latest atrocity here]”],
    => “[Hillary Clinton/Racheal Maddow/some surrogate] Just Cut The Heart Out Of Trump’s Campaign In [Less Than Two Minutes/Two Words/One Sentence]”,
    => “Republicans [terrified/worst nightmare] as [insert latest polling atrocity here]”

    It really is amusing to watch the vastness of their imagination playing it out. Don’t get me wrong, I generally agree with their politics, but you gotta laugh sometimes.

    Anyway imagine my surprise when I noticed a headline that didn’t match the pattern. At all. And even more when I noticed the subject.

    Joseph Farah Objects to Scripture Reading at DNC And Gets Everything Wrong

    I know Farrah has no interest in facts, and lying about the Constitution is just another day at the word processor for him. But lying about the Bible and Jesus? I didn’t think even he would go that far.

    Farah objects to the historical fact, as we were reminded at the DNC by the Reverand William Barber II, President of the North Carolina NAACP, that Jesus was a Palestinian. Farah claims that the word Palestine was invented by the Romans when they renamed the province after the year 79CE revolt (actually it was after the second revolt in 132CE). Except that the word Palestine was applied to the area at least as early as around 500BCE by Aristotle.

    As the author of the PoliticusUSA (Hrafnkell Haraldsson) says:

    It does very little good to have a book you claim to follow, to claim your Bible and your religion is historical and then reject the history that forms its very context. And this is what Farah has done. Even in the terms of his time, both among Romans and educated Jews, Jesus was a Palestinian.

    Of course, when I was about 14 I had a ‘discussion’ with a kid from another church denomination who threatened to beat me up when I suggested that Jesus was a Jew. He claimed that ‘Jesus was not a Jew, how can you even think that, and you’re going to hell you dirty blasphemer’.

    Takes all kinds I guess.

  64. avatar
    J.D. Sue August 6, 2016 at 12:00 pm #

    Farah said, “He was certainly not a Palestinian. He was an Israeli.”

    Well, I’m no historian. But as far as I know, the term “Israeli” only applies to citizens of the modern State of Israel. Jesus was not an “Israeli”, he was an “Israelite”, and not because of state citizenship, but because he was one of the “Children of Israel” (aka children of Jacob, aka Israelites).

    I remember so clearly when PM Menachem Begin used to insist repeatedly, “I belong to the Palestinian people too. Because I am a Palestinian Jew.”

    Just sayin.

  65. avatar
    donna August 7, 2016 at 8:19 am #

    Hillary Clinton Reminds Voters Of Donald Trump’s Past Birther Claims

    Hillary: Four years ago today.

    Donald J. Trump Verified account
    ‏@realDonaldTrump

    An ‘extremely credible source’ has called my office and told me that @BarackObama’s birth certificate is a fraud.

    1:23 PM – 6 Aug 2012

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-reminds-voters-trump-birther-past_us_57a63fbee4b021fd9878cff7?section=&

  66. avatar
    Thrifty August 8, 2016 at 3:06 pm #

    I noticed this in the Twitter feed above. Apparently some rapscallion has created some sort of bot to create the intentionally false Birther-esque rumor that Donald Trump’s tax returns show donations to NAMBLA.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/08/nambla-becomes-donald-trump-s-birther-moment.html

    The bot simply posts the following sentence all over the Internet:

    “Speaking of tax returns, did you hear Donald Trump is refusing to release them because Donald Trump has donated to NAMBLA? That’s what all the best sources, the most tremendous sources are saying.”

  67. avatar
    jdkinpa August 8, 2016 at 6:12 pm #

    Having Klayman on the Trump band wagon should give a big boost to his campaign. /snark

    “no politician, short of the Muslim King Barack Hussein Obama, is more evil than Hillary Clinton” and that she and others who try “to assassinate the Republican candidate chosen by the people” should “be taken to the ‘legal guillotines,’ as they are not just despicable political hacks, but also traitors!”

    http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/klayman-take-hillary-clinton-and-critics-trump-legal-guillotines

  68. avatar
    Dave B. August 8, 2016 at 9:14 pm #

    Here you go, Doc–

    https://archive.org/details/drac_stoker

    Dr. Conspiracy:
    I’ve never read of a case of someone being bitten by an immigrant, although it may have happened.

  69. avatar
    Dave B. August 8, 2016 at 9:18 pm #

    Meanwhile in Alabama, Roy Moore’s up to his ass in alligators. Crazy goings-on outside the courtroom.
    http://www.al.com/news/birmingham/index.ssf/2016/08/roy_moore_headed_to_trial_cour.html

  70. avatar
    Keith August 9, 2016 at 1:49 am #

    Thrifty:

    “Speaking of tax returns, did you hear Donald Trump is refusing to release them because Donald Trump has donated to NAMBLA? That’s what all the best sources, the most tremendous sources are saying.”

    Its true.

    I’ve read it on at least three different sites already today.

  71. avatar
    Thrifty August 9, 2016 at 6:19 am #

    This Halloween, I’m thinking of going as “President-Elect Donald Trump”. I want my costume to be scary, but do you think that’s crossing a line and perhaps a little TOO scary?

  72. avatar
    Nancy Ruth Owens Jones August 9, 2016 at 4:52 pm #

    Interesting. Is he kin to Mike “Zullo” Moore?

    Dave B.:
    Meanwhile in Alabama, Roy Moore’s up to his ass in alligators.Crazy goings-on outside the courtroom.
    http://www.al.com/news/birmingham/index.ssf/2016/08/roy_moore_headed_to_trial_cour.html

  73. avatar
    RanTalbott August 9, 2016 at 7:13 pm #

    Thrifty: but do you think that’s crossing a line and perhaps a little TOO scary?

    Well, depending on which houses you go to, it could get you laid. Or shot. 😉 And, depending on how his campaign is (not) going at that point, your expectations of which would happen at Clinton fan and Trump fan houses might be backwards…

    If you want to do “tiny hands” with small gloves, the dollar stores have cheap versions of those “reach and grab” tools that might be hackable into an opposed thumb and finger that you could use to make them somewhat functional.

  74. avatar
    RanTalbott August 9, 2016 at 7:28 pm #

    Dave B.: Meanwhile in Alabama, Roy Moore’s up to his ass in alligators.

    Must be fleeing that toxic algae bloom I just heard about.

    They shoulda known better than to put their state right next-door to a swamp…

  75. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 9, 2016 at 9:17 pm #

    Donald Trump code words: “I don’t know.”

    When Trump says “I don’t know” it means, “yes I really meant that outrageous thing I just said, but I’m not willing to own it.”

  76. avatar
    Dave B. August 9, 2016 at 11:23 pm #

    We had this big goofy kid in Tucson who ran against Gabby Giffords in her last election, and then in the special election to replace her after she resigned from Congress. Trump’s latest “I don’t know” kind of reminded me of him and a couple of the stupid stunts he got up to.

    http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a47492/trump-hillary-assassination/

    Funny thing is, he’s got no use at all for Trump.

    Dr. Conspiracy:
    Donald Trump code words: “I don’t know.”

    When Trump says “I don’t know” it means, “yes I really meant that outrageous thing I just said, but I’m not willing to own it.”

  77. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 9, 2016 at 11:39 pm #

    I follow the US Secret Service on Twitter, and they have responded to Trump’s remarks by saying:

    “The Secret Service is aware of the comments made earlier this afternoon.”

    https://twitter.com/SecretService/status/763142627202048000

    BTW, the USSS has an opening for a document analyst. Birthers need not apply.

  78. avatar
    RanTalbott August 10, 2016 at 6:48 am #

    Dr. Conspiracy: I follow the US Secret Service on Twitter

    Is it just me, or does “Secret Service on Twitter” sound vaguely Monty Python-esque? I imagine tweets like “Headed to 12345 South Dirt Road to talk to a Mr. R. Edneck about his threats to the VP. Hope he’s not armed to the teeth like the last one”, or selfies of agents sitting on bales of captured counterfeit money…

    I wonder if they put out the tweet you posted because they were getting inundated with thousands of redundant tips.

  79. avatar
    Lupin August 10, 2016 at 11:10 am #

    One thing this Frenchman finds interesting about the Drumpfelstiltskin campaign is that it is like an ongoing experiment on the First amendment / “where do you draw the line?” issue.

    So I gather that making veiled threats / inciting gun nuts to shoot your President and a SCOTUS judge is OK, right?

    I’m still waiting to see where your establishment will draw the line.

  80. avatar
    Reality Check August 10, 2016 at 12:06 pm #

    The comments by the Trump apologists on his “second amendment” solution for Hillary and her court nominees stretch the bounds of stupidity to Rambo Ickian Birther level stupidity. Also most clips of his statement leave on the part where he says “That would be horrible day”. He is clearly talking about assassination and nothing else.

  81. avatar
    Reality Check August 10, 2016 at 12:10 pm #

    Unfortunately, all it takes for Trump to get a way with it is for his spokespersons like Rudy Giuliani to go on television and lie their asses off and the media will portray it as a 50-50 issue like everything else. Then they will get back to talking about Hillary’s emails.

    Lupin: I’m still waiting to see where your establishment will draw the line.

  82. avatar
    justlw August 10, 2016 at 1:11 pm #

    Reality Check: Also most clips of his statement leave on the part where he says “That would be horrible day”.

    My take:

    1. Noteworthy point: the line about “2nd amendment people…I don’t know” was not in his prepared speech; it was an ad-lib. This to me supports its dog-whistle intent.

    2. The line about “that would be terrible” was in the original. So I believe that was meant to be tied to “What if Hillary owns all the judges?”, not “2nd amendment people”. Point for Trump!

    3. Similarly, people are saying that Katrina Pierson (a generally awful person), when talking to Tapper on CNN, gave the show away by saying “he was just saying what could happen” and how terrible it would be. Again, I believe she was referring to the horror of a US president nominating judges as specified by the Constitution, not putative 2nd amendment remedies. She was completely on message with the campaign’s BS statement that Trump was talking about the unified power of “2nd amendment people”.

  83. avatar
    Dave B. August 10, 2016 at 2:55 pm #

    From Constitution Party presidential candidate Darrell Castle:

    “I’m not a birther; I don’t know where Barack Obama was born.”

    http://www.redstate.com/diary/blbennett/2016/08/09/constitution-party-candidate-darrell-castle-speaks-theblaze-tv-today/

  84. avatar
    J.D. Sue August 10, 2016 at 3:07 pm #

    justlw: She was completely on message with the campaign’s BS statement that Trump was talking about the unified power of “2nd amendment people”.

    —-
    IMO, Trump gets points for changing the media conversation from economics (and his taxes, frauds, etc.) to the 2nd Amendment. He provided the bait, and they swallowed hook line and sinker. Hillary, at least, has been toning down her gun-related rhetoric because she wants Independents, Repubs and Democrat gun owners to vote for her. Now Trump is stirring it up again to try to keep her from getting those votes. Don’t let Trump drive the news cycle!

  85. avatar
    J.D. Sue August 10, 2016 at 6:44 pm #

    For those interested in the Russian connection, there is an interesting article in the Washington Post today. I love this article for its juicy quotes. My favorite quote:

    “We want the best for Moscow — and Donald’s it.”

    From the article:

    Trump’s visits to Russia began in 1987 and lasted until 2013, when he brought the Miss Universe pageant to Moscow and famously wondered on Twitter about Vladimir Putin, “will he become my best friend?” Trump was also deeply involved in discussions to work on the reconstruction of the Moskva and Rossiya hotels in Moscow’s city center. He has bragged about his ties to Russian businessmen connected to the Kremlin.

    “The Russian market is attracted to me,” Trump told Real Estate Weekly in 2013. “I have a great relationship with many Russians, and almost all of the oligarchs were in the room.”

    In November 1996, Trump spent three days in Moscow with Lorber and visited Ducat Place, a site being developed by Liggett-Ducat Ltd., a cigarette company that was owned by Lorber’s Vector Group at the time.

    “We’re looking at building a super-luxury residential tower … which I think Moscow desperately wants and needs,”Trump told the Moscow Times at the time.

    Lorber’s business partner Ben LeBow was also involved in arranging Trump’s trip to Moscow. He bragged about bringing the Trump Organization to Russia in a 1996 interview with the Moscow Times.

    “Donald is the preeminent marketeer and developer in the world,” said LeBow. “We want the best for Moscow — and Donald’s it.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2016/08/10/another-trump-adviser-with-deep-ties-to-russia/?postshare=7491470830444567&tid=ss_tw

  86. avatar
    jdkinpa August 10, 2016 at 7:21 pm #

    Sheriff Joe Arpaio raises nearly $10 million for campaign

    If he loses his race maybe the county can get some of the money back he has cost them over the years.

    http://www.abc15.com/news/region-phoenix-metro/central-phoenix/sheriff-joe-arpaio-raises-nearly-10-million-for-campaign

  87. avatar
    Thrifty August 11, 2016 at 11:03 am #

    I noticed in the Twitter feed above how someone put a picture of Trump above a passage from 1984 that alluded to the Two Minutes Hate. I hadn’t realized until I saw that how appropriate it was to Trump’s campaign. Really, every rally of his seems to boil down to “All those other people are out to destroy you! Only I can save you!” The parallels between Big Brother and Trump, plus their respective fanbases (though I guess in Big Brother’s case it was everyone who wasn’t in prison or dead), are chilling.

    In today’s Two Minutes Hate, Trump called Obama “The founder of ISIS”. It’s funny…. when he gave an actual policy speech a few days ago, I thought he might be making some attempt to turn into an actual candidate. I guess that was more like one of those Youtube videos where a cat does something remarkably human, and someone was lucky enough to have a camera rolling at the time. It probably won’t happen again, and it was pretty amazing that it did in the first place.

  88. avatar
    Thrifty August 11, 2016 at 11:11 am #

    Latest projection at the New York Times gives Clinton an 87% chance to win. It also gives the following breakdown of scenarios for election outcomes:

    1,019 ways for Clinton to win.
    4 ways for Trump to win.
    1 way to tie.

    If Clinton wins any 1 of the following states, she is predicted to win outright: Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, or Missouri.

    Winning any two of these states also gives Clinton the presidency: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire.

    Those are just basically the tossup states. I think she’s polling so strong elsewhere that the states aren’t even considered.

    Betting odds and the 538 polls-plus model are both more conservative, giving her a 76% chance at victory.

  89. avatar
    Scientist August 11, 2016 at 12:04 pm #

    Thrifty: It’s funny…. when he gave an actual policy speech a few days ago, I thought he might be making some attempt to turn into an actual candidate.

    Trump really sucks at reading from a teleprompter; he comes across as wooden. I’ve heard from conservatives for years that Obama only sounds good because he has a teleprompter, yet all the others have one too and none sound even close to as good as him. It’s like saying Ted Williams only hit balls because he had a bat.

    As far as Trump’s policies, his Detroit speech was warmed-over supply side economics. Romney ran on that and lost and he was at least someone you could imagine in the White House.

    But, fundamentally, Trump has displayed enough craziness that to try to run as sane now can’t work. Everyone has seen he is nuts and few weeks of pretend sanity, even if he could do it (and he can’t) won’t convince most people that it’s safe to give him the nuclear codes.

  90. avatar
    Curious George August 11, 2016 at 1:39 pm #

    Sheriff Joe July 14, 2016 deposition excerpt from Flake v. Arpaio lawsuit:

    IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF ARIZONA

    (beginning page 127, line 8)

    Q. By MR. MONTOYA (Plaintiff’s attorney) : Okay.··You’ve actually launched an investigation against the president of the United States, haven’t you?

    A. By Sheriff Joe Arpaio: Which one are you talking about?

    Q. I’m talking about the current president of the United States, that would be Barack Obama?

    A. Which investigation are you talking about?

    Q. How many have you launched?

    A. Well, I know I have sued him and I know I had launched an investigation three years ago.

    Q. And what were you — what were you — were you investigating him for a crime?

    A. Yes.

    Q. What crime was that?

    A. Fraudulent documents.

    Q. Okay.··And did he try to — what do you mean “fraudulent documents”?··What did he do that was a fraudulent document?

    A. Well, when you have a fraudulent birth certificate, I think that’s a violation of the law, no matter who it is and what the document is.

    Q. And where did this alleged crime occur, Sheriff Arpaio?

    A. It could have been Hawaii.··It could have been Washington.··It could have been Arizona.

    Q. So you’re saying that President Barack Obama could have created a fraudulent document in Arizona?

    A. It would pertain to an interest of Arizona.

    Q. How?

    A. Because if you are not a legitimate president or if there’s a problem, I think it would affect the voter situation here in Arizona.

    Q. You know, Sheriff, I’m trying to be fair to you, but I’m very confused now.··I thought you were the Sheriff of Maricopa County and as our sheriff, that you were supposed to enforce the law in Maricopa County regarding violations that transpired in Maricopa County. An alleged animal cruelty, assault and battery, drug dealing, serial killers in Maricopa County. Barack Obama wasn’t born in Maricopa County, was he?

    A. I haven’t come up with that information. I’m going to say it again, the people that I represent, and I do report to the people, came to me, many of them: Sheriff, you are our sheriff, we have information about a fraudulent document, called a birth certificate that ·affects the election, even in Arizona. And I’m not a legal guy, that could affect — that could even be a criminal offense here. I’m not going to get into all of the legal points. But since you brought it up, it didn’t cost the taxpayers any money.

    Q. Who paid for it?

    A. It was a volunteer posse that did this investigation, so it wasn’t something you or the taxpayers had to pay for.

    Q. But they did it under the authority of the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office, did they not?

    A. Yes.

    Q. So you gave your official imprimatur to it, right?

    A. Yes.

    Q. Your official stamp?

    A. Yes.

    Q. And you think that was appropriate?

    A. Yes.

    Q. Are you proud of that?

    A. I don’t get proud of my investigations. I do what I feel is right. I don’t go home and look in the mirror. I think I’ve been a professional guy for 55 years. So I enforce all the laws.

    Q. Your —

    A. And, by the way, that investigation is not done yet.

    Q. Oh, it’s still ongoing?

    A. You asked me the question, how many times did I investigate the president.

    Q. Okay.··So tell me the status of that investigation.

    A. I’m not going to — I don’t have the current status right now.

    Q. Well, what’s your — you’re the one who brought it up?

    A. No, I’m saying that I don’t —

    Q. You said the —

    A. No, I —

    Q. You said the investigation was still —

    A. Yeah, okay.

    Q. — ongoing?

    A. Right, okay.

    Q. What’s going on?

    A. I don’t have the current status.

    Q. Well, then how do you know it’s ongoing?

    A. Because I know it’s ongoing.

    Q. Who’s conducting it?

    A. But I don’t have all the details. I don’t have all of the details right now.

    Q. Who’s conducting it?

    A. I have investigators free of charge, no costs to the taxpayers.

    Q. Who are they?

    A. It’s my volunteer posse member.

    Q. Okay. What’s his name? Or her name?

    A. Well, Mike Zullo.

    Q. Mike Zullo?

    A. Yes.

    Q. How do you spell that?

    A. Z-u-l-l-o.

    Q. Is Mike Zullo a law enforcement officer?

    A. He’s a posse member, which has authority under the constitution of the sheriff.

    Q. Is he POST certified?

    A. No. He gets his authority from the Sheriff.

    Q. You know, Sheriff, I’m not kidding you, stop that.

    A. No you’re asking me the questions. I’m —

    Q. Stop that, Sheriff.

    MR. LEONARD (Arpaio’s attorney):··Well —

    THE WITNESS: You opened the — you opened the door, and I’m giving you —

    MR. LEONARD: Wait, wait, stop, stop. I’m going to object to the form. You’re not asking him a question. You want to get into an argument with him, do it somewhere else.

    MR. MONTOYA: I’m just telling him —

    THE WITNESS: You opened the door —

    MR. MONTOYA: Sheriff, that is —

    THE WITNESS: — and I’m trying to be honest and answer your question, okay.

    MR. LEONARD: Steve, if you’re done with your questions, we can wrap it up and go home.

    MR. MONTOYA: Okay. Okay.··Just one second.

    Q. BY MR. MONTOYA: No, I’m just telling you what you’re doing is crazy and you should stop.

  91. avatar
    justlw August 11, 2016 at 1:44 pm #

    Scientist: teleprompter

    Several years ago, I tripped across something I found interesting — a paper that came out in the middle of 2008 written by an academic of some sort about the use of teleprompters in campaigns. Fairly mundane, went back to the beginning of (teleprompter) time, mentioned classic uses of them, noted that most politicians have used them now for decades.

    And oh, by the way (said the author), it looks like in the current campaign, Obama’s pretty good at using them and McCain is kind of wooden. Just a quick observation; not at all the thrust of the paper.

    And oddly enough, the “OBAMA USES TELEPROMPTERS LIKE THE ELITIST MUSLIM KENYAN HE IS” foment started within days after that document came out.

    Funny, that.

  92. avatar
    justlw August 11, 2016 at 1:47 pm #

    Oh, and Trump gave a speech this morning, in his “attempting to not sound like my head is full of bees” mode, where he was trashing a Clinton speech.

    And he just couldn’t help himself; he had to ad-lib “–she was doing it from a teleprompter“.

  93. avatar
    justlw August 11, 2016 at 1:50 pm #

    Scientist: I’ve heard from conservatives for years that Obama only sounds good because he has a teleprompter

    Except for all the times he’s slayed without a teleprompter. His response to the “they’re taking away our guns!” guy at the PBS town hall stands out as a recent example.

  94. avatar
    Thrifty August 11, 2016 at 2:38 pm #

    Since you mentioned 1988, I’ve been meaning to post this.

    The first presidential election I remember was in 1988. I was alive for the 1984 election, but I was only about 3 and a half years old, so I have no memory of it. In the 1988 election, I was in 2nd grade. I distinctly remember the day after the election, a girl in my class told me “it was a good thing Bush won, because Dukakis would have made us come to school all year round”.

    I have no idea if this was even remotely true, but as an impressionable child, I believed it was and was very glad Dukakis lost. I never thought about this until recently. I imagine the girl’s parents were ardent Bush supporters, and told them this about Dukakis to turn her against him, even though as a 7 year old, she (like me) could not vote. After all, nothing would make you hate a grownup more than him taking away your summer vacation. There is nothing more sacrosanct to grade schooler.

  95. avatar
    RanTalbott August 11, 2016 at 3:59 pm #

    Curious George: Q. How many have you launched?

    A. Well, I know I have sued him and I know I had launched an investigation three years ago.

    So, is he saying he didn’t “launch” the Clueless Clown Posse investigation, which they claimed started five years ago?

    Is he talking about the “separate, criminal investigation”?

    Or is he trying to lay the foundation for a senility defense?

  96. avatar
    Reality Check August 11, 2016 at 4:40 pm #

    I loved the ending of that deposition.

    Curious George: Q. BY MR. MONTOYA: No, I’m just telling you what you’re doing is crazy and you should stop.

  97. avatar
    Thrifty August 11, 2016 at 4:41 pm #

    I think I’m past the point of being amused by Trump’s nonsense.

    I’m mostly past the worry that he’ll be elected.

    Now I’m just bored. I wish the election would just happen already so he’d go away.

  98. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 11, 2016 at 4:53 pm #

    I think the old guy was confused about the time frame.

    RanTalbott: So, is he saying he didn’t “launch” the Clueless Clown Posse investigation, which they claimed started five years ago?

  99. avatar
    Curious George August 11, 2016 at 7:14 pm #

    RanTalbott: So, is he saying he didn’t “launch” the Clueless Clown Posse investigation, which they claimed started five years ago?

    Is he talking about the “separate, criminal investigation”?

    Or is he trying to lay the foundation for a senility defense?

    The deposition was done on July 14, 2016. That would be about 4 years and 10 months after the birth certificate investigation began by the CCCP. Contrary to what Joe says, his memory isn’t good, especially when he can’t remember the name of his attorney sitting in the same deposition room or the last name of his secretary. It’s no wonder that he doesn’t have any idea what’s going on in his department. But, he did remember Mike Zullo’s name.

  100. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 11, 2016 at 9:10 pm #

    Interesting application of data analysis:

    http://varianceexplained.org/r/trump-tweets/

  101. avatar
    Scientist August 12, 2016 at 6:41 am #

    Doc: Any thoughts on the poll that shows Trump only up by 2% in your home state? That is quite a shocker. The Republican Senator is up by 17% in the same poll, so he’s running WAY behind where a Republican normally would,

  102. avatar
    Reality Check August 12, 2016 at 11:27 am #

    I read that article yesterday. I didn’t realize that you could find the originating device for a Tweet. I know web sites can track your browser (Firefox, IE, Chrome), OS, and screen resolution. Privacy is an illusion.

    Dr. Conspiracy:
    Interesting application of data analysis:

    http://varianceexplained.org/r/trump-tweets/

  103. avatar
    bob August 12, 2016 at 12:48 pm #

    RanTalbott: Is he talking about the “separate, criminal investigation”?

    I think Arpaio meant that the Seattle caper started three years ago. But Arpaio isn’t always articulate and precise, even when under oath.

  104. avatar
    justlw August 12, 2016 at 2:38 pm #

    I wonder how many flying monkeys have been there — the house that IP addresses used to be mapped to if they can only be resolved to “somewhere in the US”.

    How a Kansas home wound up with 600 million IP addresses and a world of trouble

    (The company’s fix is great: the default address is now the center of a lake. Some Darwin Award opportunities, there… .)

  105. avatar
    Scientist August 12, 2016 at 4:25 pm #

    Thrifty:
    I think I’m past the point of being amused by Trump’s nonsense.

    I’m mostly past the worry that he’ll be elected.

    Now I’m just bored.I wish the election would just happen already so he’d go away.

    Sam Wang now has Clinton with 271 safe EVs,

  106. avatar
    Thrifty August 13, 2016 at 8:12 am #

    I couldn’t find that, but I did come up with 273 myself:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/y1e3x

    It takes the default list of “safe” states which the site had pre-filled, then gives Clinton PA, WI, VA, CO, and NH, states which are traditionally swing states but where Clinton has a huge lead over Trump. Left several other states open.

    Scientist: Sam Wang now has Clinton with 271 safe EVs,

  107. avatar
    Scientist August 13, 2016 at 9:05 am #

    Thrifty: I couldn’t find that, but I did come up with 273 myself:

    http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

    has Clinton with 271 safe.

  108. avatar
    Thrifty August 13, 2016 at 9:35 am #

    Big victory for Birthers today. A federal judge has ruled that Barack Obama must vacate the Oval Office within 160 days, or by the end of the day (11:59 Eastern time) on January 20th, 2017. 8 years of fighting the good fight shall finally come to fruition!

  109. avatar
    J.D. Sue August 13, 2016 at 9:42 am #

    “The Night That Obama and Hillary Founded ISIS” http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/08/night-that-obama-and-hillary-founded-isis.html

    Excerpt:

    [Obama explained to Hillary] that he had actually been born in Kenya in 1919, and that he was 97 years old. He’d made an American birth certificate out of simple graph paper and aged it with tea bags. (“Honestly, it took me, like, 20 minutes.”) He explained that his parents told him from an early age that he should grow up to become the president of the United States so that he could eventually destroy the country from the inside.

    “Isn’t that the plot of the first season of Homeland?” Hillary asked. Obama nodded. “Kind of. Also a little bit of The Americans.”

    No one had come close to guessing his secret, until Donald Trump. He didn’t know what had given it away. He’d been so careful. Had Donald Trump figured out the secret messages he was sending through his Portuguese water dog, Bo? “Wait, what?” Hillary asked. She was starting to freak out. Obama explained that Bo was actually a supercomputer programmed to bark out messages in Morse code to terrorist organizations around the world, and he thought there was a chance that Donald Trump had seen that Bo’s eyes were really tiny LED screens. “Did you know that when Bo barks,” Obama said, “he’s just repeating the word dog over and over again in a robot voice?”

  110. avatar
    Joey August 13, 2016 at 3:00 pm #

    Nancy Ruth Owens Jones:
    Skewed.

    Birthers: screwed

  111. avatar
    Thrifty August 13, 2016 at 8:06 pm #

    Thanks for the link. Though I can’t agree with North Carolina as a safe Hillary state.

    Scientist: http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

    has Clinton with 271 safe.