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Obama Birth Certificate Number proves it’s a fake – busted Original Research

Theory: “Polarik” on the Investigating Obama blog made a statement that piqued my interest being a mathematician and vital statistics expert. Here’s what he said:

The Certificate Number … a CHRONOLOGICAL & SEQUENTIAL INDEX which is assigned on January 1 for the birth year and is incremented each time a birth record is created…

There were about 14,000 births in 1961, and #10,641 [the number on the Barack Obama COLB] is bit low for someone allegedly born on August 4th as far fewer babies are born in the last quarter of the year than the second and third quarters.

Facts: To start off with, Polarik’s birth figure is far off from the actual number. According to Vital Statistics of the United States – 1961, Page 3-15 (# 158 in the PDF) published by the U. S. Department of Health Education & Welfare there were 17,616 births in the State of Hawaii in 1961.

I’m not sure what Polarik’s remark, “far fewer babies are born in the last quarter of the year than the second and third quarters” is supposed to tell us since Barack Obama’s certificate dates his birth in the 3rd quarter. In any case it isn’t true. Hawaiian births are spread pretty evenly across the year. While quarterly breakdowns for 1961 were not available for this analysis, data from 1996, the earliest year available online from the Hawaii Department of Health, was examined, and showed percentages of births for the State of Hawaii to be 25.4%, 24.1%, 25.7% and 24.7% for quarters 1-4 respectively.

Analysis: Applying this percentage breakdown to 1961 totals for the first half of the year, we would have 49.5% * 17,616 = 8,732. Add to that a prorated 34 days (July 1 – August 4) of the 25.7% of births for the third quarter (I have a Master’s Degree in Mathematics, Ron) or 1,691. So the estimated certificate number for someone born around August 4, 1961 would be 8,732 + 1,691 = 10,423  and the Obama’s certificate number is 10,641 or within 2% of where it was estimated.

Conclusion: There is nothing at all out of line in the Barack Obama COLB Certificate number.

[I discovered an independent analysis, making a reasonable assumption that births were evenly distributed throughout the year, arrived at similar numbers. That report is on]


Polarik responded to the analysis over on, saying he had used the numbers from Honolulu instead of the whole state by accident. He still got the wrong answer, even using the Honolulu numbers.

Update 2:

Table 2-2 of the Vital Statistics of the United States, Volume 1 for 1961 lists the births in Hawaii by month. We find that there were 9,942 Hawaiian births prior to August, making the best estimate for certificate numbers in August between 09943 and 11402. Obama’s number fits neatly in that range at 10641. Obama sits right in the middle where his alphabetical ordering by last name within region reasonably places him. Other analysis has determined that Hawaiian birth certificates are numbered in monthly batches after sorting by surname within geographic region (basically inside and outside Honolulu).


16 Responses to Obama Birth Certificate Number proves it’s a fake – busted

  1. avatar
    sunkawakan December 31, 2008 at 8:19 pm #

    It’s obvious, Polarik and his/her cronies are members of a paleoconservative (or neo-confederate) think tank.

  2. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy December 31, 2008 at 8:21 pm #

    Yeah, that explains a lot.

  3. avatar
    George Orwell III December 31, 2008 at 10:53 pm #

    NBER is afiliated with various universities and organizations with the typical board of directors set up. You might do better to insure impartiality by using the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics direct link for the same file which is hosted under a .gov web domain.

    Vital Statistics of the United States, 1961.
    Volume I, Natality. 246 pp.
    View/Download PDF 7.7 MB

    Data for Hawaii found on page 157 of 246 in PDF, Section 3, Table: 3-1, Table Index: 3-15.

  4. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy December 31, 2008 at 11:21 pm #

    Thanks, George. I thought I had the CDC link, but I see otherwise. All fixed.

  5. avatar
    paul battis January 3, 2009 at 5:52 pm #

    That’s some good info. Nice work. It’s interesting how if a person questions Obama’s legality to be president, that person is considered some sort of right wing nut case. It is not wrong to question these things. Getting to the bottom of these issues is acting like a responsible citizen. To go along blindly is never the right move. It’s good to question and to have to prove truth. It’good for everyone involved. In this case it’s good for Obama to prove his eligibility and it’s the least he can do before beginning to lead.

  6. avatar
    bogus info January 3, 2009 at 6:03 pm #

    Paul Battis,

    Obama did provide proof yet all some have done is call that proof a fake. There is nothing wrong with questioning, but I think there are some that have taken this a bit far. Accusing him of killing his grandmother, digging into what I would consider to be private information that I sure would not appreciate someone obtaining on me. Tax records, his grandmothers duties at the bank, school records, etc., etc. And some of the names I have seen his Mother called are unbelievable. This has gone way over board in my opinion.

    Oddly, when McCain had a BC problem, Congress just passed a non-binding SR-511 and the whole issue went away pretty much. The only reason Donofrio included McCain in his pleadings was for “show.”

  7. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy January 3, 2009 at 7:00 pm #

    The key is to examine the evidence personally and not let someone tell you what the evidence is or what it means. A healthy dost of skepticism helps too.

  8. avatar
    Dark Matter January 22, 2009 at 3:53 pm #

    I bet due to Hawaii’s climate, Hawaii birth rate is even thru out the year. colder weather climate areas have the birth rates higher in some quarters do to PEOPLE being inside more…. JUST MY GUESS

  9. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy January 22, 2009 at 4:59 pm #

    That’s reasonable. What one would expect is to see sinusoidal patterns (based on studies I looked at researching Polarik’s BS) that are reversed from north to south. In moderated climates around the equator or islands tempered by the ocean, it should even out (as we see in Hawaii).


  10. avatar
    mark February 2, 2009 at 8:34 pm #

    has anyone looked up(mr and mrs norman asing son)cert#? should be close to same

  11. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy February 2, 2009 at 9:37 pm #

    There’s no way for a private citizen to look up Hawaiian birth certificate numbers. The real prize certificate numbers, would be for the Nordyke twins.

    Retracing the steps of history, Eleanor Nordyke now realizes that she was in labor with twin daughters while Barack Obama, now the president-elect, was being born at what is now Kapi-‘olani Medical Center for Women & Children.

    Source: Honolulu Advertiser newspaper

  12. avatar
    Vince Treacy August 3, 2009 at 4:18 pm #

    “Eleanor Nordyke was issued a certificate of live birth for each of her twin daughters on Aug. 5, 1961. Susan and Gretchen Nordyke we given consecutive numbers 151 61 10637 and 151 61 10638. Obama who was born on August 4th has provided a COLB which shows a certificate number: 151 1961 10641”

  13. avatar
    Joe Spenner November 19, 2009 at 1:47 pm #

    Let’s take the entire attitude of Obama toward our country and the Constitution. Several photos show him turning his back toward the flag during gatherings. Other You Tube photos record him saying the Constitution has been discarded, and he expresses loyalty to Islam. If, he took the Oath of allegiance according to traditional

    Joe Spenner

  14. avatar
    milspec November 19, 2009 at 1:56 pm #

    Back off on the coffee Joe

  15. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy November 19, 2009 at 3:53 pm #

    Joe Spenner: Other You Tube photos record him saying the Constitution has been discarded, and he expresses loyalty to Islam.

    I guess a picture is worth a thousand words. But really, whatever videos you have are either out of context or fake.

  16. avatar
    Barack Obama May 4, 2010 at 7:29 am #

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