Obama Birth Certificate Number proves it’s a fake – busted
ObamaConspiracy.org Original Research
Theory: “Polarik” on the Investigating Obama blog made a statement that piqued my interest being a mathematician and vital statistics expert. Here’s what he said:
The Certificate Number … a CHRONOLOGICAL & SEQUENTIAL INDEX which is assigned on January 1 for the birth year and is incremented each time a birth record is created…
There were about 14,000 births in 1961, and #10,641 [the number on the Barack Obama COLB] is bit low for someone allegedly born on August 4th as far fewer babies are born in the last quarter of the year than the second and third quarters.
Facts: To start off with, Polarik’s birth figure is far off from the actual number. According to Vital Statistics of the United States – 1961, Page 3-15 (# 158 in the PDF) published by the U. S. Department of Health Education & Welfare there were 17,616 births in the State of Hawaii in 1961.
I’m not sure what Polarik’s remark, “far fewer babies are born in the last quarter of the year than the second and third quarters” is supposed to tell us since Barack Obama’s certificate dates his birth in the 3rd quarter. In any case it isn’t true. Hawaiian births are spread pretty evenly across the year. While quarterly breakdowns for 1961 were not available for this analysis, data from 1996, the earliest year available online from the Hawaii Department of Health, was examined, and showed percentages of births for the State of Hawaii to be 25.4%, 24.1%, 25.7% and 24.7% for quarters 1-4 respectively.
Analysis: Applying this percentage breakdown to 1961 totals for the first half of the year, we would have 49.5% * 17,616 = 8,732. Add to that a prorated 34 days (July 1 – August 4) of the 25.7% of births for the third quarter (I have a Master’s Degree in Mathematics, Ron) or 1,691. So the estimated certificate number for someone born around August 4, 1961 would be 8,732 + 1,691 = 10,423 and the Obama’s certificate number is 10,641 or within 2% of where it was estimated.
Conclusion: There is nothing at all out of line in the Barack Obama COLB Certificate number.
[I discovered an independent analysis, making a reasonable assumption that births were evenly distributed throughout the year, arrived at similar numbers. That report is on FreeRepublic.com]
Update: Polarik responded to the analysis over on FreeRepublic.com, saying he had used the numbers from Honolulu instead of the whole state by accident. He still got the wrong answer, even using the Honolulu numbers and what explains Ron’s bogus statement about how births in Hawaii are noe distributed across the year.
It’s obvious, Polarik and his/her cronies are members of a paleoconservative (or neo-confederate) think tank.
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Yeah, that explains a lot.
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NBER is afiliated with various universities and organizations with the typical board of directors set up. You might do better to insure impartiality by using the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics direct link for the same file which is hosted under a .gov web domain.
Vital Statistics of the United States, 1961.
Volume I, Natality. 246 pp.
View/Download PDF 7.7 MB
Data for Hawaii found on page 157 of 246 in PDF, Section 3, Table: 3-1, Table Index: 3-15.
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Thanks, George. I thought I had the CDC link, but I see otherwise. All fixed.
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That’s some good info. Nice work. It’s interesting how if a person questions Obama’s legality to be president, that person is considered some sort of right wing nut case. It is not wrong to question these things. Getting to the bottom of these issues is acting like a responsible citizen. To go along blindly is never the right move. It’s good to question and to have to prove truth. It’good for everyone involved. In this case it’s good for Obama to prove his eligibility and it’s the least he can do before beginning to lead.
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The key is to examine the evidence personally and not let someone tell you what the evidence is or what it means. A healthy dost of skepticism helps too.
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Paul Battis,
Obama did provide proof yet all some have done is call that proof a fake. There is nothing wrong with questioning, but I think there are some that have taken this a bit far. Accusing him of killing his grandmother, digging into what I would consider to be private information that I sure would not appreciate someone obtaining on me. Tax records, his grandmothers duties at the bank, school records, etc., etc. And some of the names I have seen his Mother called are unbelievable. This has gone way over board in my opinion.
Oddly, when McCain had a BC problem, Congress just passed a non-binding SR-511 and the whole issue went away pretty much. The only reason Donofrio included McCain in his pleadings was for “show.”
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I bet due to Hawaii’s climate, Hawaii birth rate is even thru out the year. colder weather climate areas have the birth rates higher in some quarters do to PEOPLE being inside more…. JUST MY GUESS
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That’s reasonable. What one would expect is to see sinusoidal patterns (based on studies I looked at researching Polarik’s BS) that are reversed from north to south. In moderated climates around the equator or islands tempered by the ocean, it should even out (as we see in Hawaii).
See: http://www.popline.org/docs/1102/104819.html
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has anyone looked up(mr and mrs norman asing son)cert#? should be close to same
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There’s no way for a private citizen to look up Hawaiian birth certificate numbers. The real prize certificate numbers, would be for the Nordyke twins.
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“Eleanor Nordyke was issued a certificate of live birth for each of her twin daughters on Aug. 5, 1961. Susan and Gretchen Nordyke we given consecutive numbers 151 61 10637 and 151 61 10638. Obama who was born on August 4th has provided a COLB which shows a certificate number: 151 1961 10641”
http://nativeborncitizen.wordpress.com/?s=Nordyke
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Let’s take the entire attitude of Obama toward our country and the Constitution. Several photos show him turning his back toward the flag during gatherings. Other You Tube photos record him saying the Constitution has been discarded, and he expresses loyalty to Islam. If, he took the Oath of allegiance according to traditional
procedure, that could make him guilty of perjury. ALL THIS CAN DENY HIM THE AUTHORITY OF COMMANDER IN CHEIF, AND CAN NOT ORDER EVEN ONE, SOLDIER TO GO TO IRAQ OR AFGHANISTSAN! NOT ONE SERVICEMAN SHOULD LEAVE TO GO TO ANY MORE ILLEGAL BUSH-WARS, UNTIL HE GETS CLEARED OF ALL HIS ERRORS!
Joe Spenner
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Back off on the coffee Joe
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Joe Spenner: Other You Tube photos record him saying the Constitution has been discarded, and he expresses loyalty to Islam.
I guess a picture is worth a thousand words. But really, whatever videos you have are either out of context or fake.
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