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The occasional open thread: elephants do forget edition

Don’t forget to put your Obama conspiracy comments that don’t relate to the current articles here. This thread will close in two weeks.

135 Responses to The occasional open thread: elephants do forget edition

  1. avatar
    RanTalbott August 7, 2015 at 3:59 am #

    Following up on justlw’s comment in the previous open thread: Trump got his “evidence” about rapists from an article about women who either choose to swap sex for part of their fee to coyotes, or are raped in transit. Which has nothing to do with the people who get smuggled in.

    And Ann Coulter has been claiming that he got his “facts” about illegal alien crime from her latest book.

    So, yeah, it’s typical birther/conspiracy nut stuff: misinterpret valid info, and uncritically swallow claims by dubious sources.

    I didn’t watch the debate (and probably won’t), but I read a “review” of it in the NYT that said the Faux News crew, astonishingly, actually did a good job for a change, pressing the candidates hard on their weak points instead of pitching softballs to let them promote themselves.

    So, that leaves them with only about 99.742% of their past sins still in need of redemption…

  2. avatar
    Reality Check August 7, 2015 at 4:05 pm #

    Doc

    I saw your Facebook post about Windows 10 and OneDrive. I don’t use it that much. I use Google Drive instead. I have found Windows 10 is very buggy. I upgraded my Windows 7 desktop and it is freezing up one or more times per day. Windows 7 was rock solid on the same machine. I downloaded the latest AMD Catalyst drivers this morning and already had my first crash.

    My experience on a couple of laptops is a little better. They were both 8.1 before.

  3. avatar
    Reality Check August 7, 2015 at 4:07 pm #

    Didn’t watch either. Did anyone bring up Trumps Birthering? I am guessing not. Despite what the Birthers think Trump and the other candidates have moved on to trashing Hillary. They are not going to waste time on Obama.

    RanTalbott: I didn’t watch the debate (and probably won’t), but I read a “review” of it in the NYT that said the Faux News crew, astonishingly, actually did a good job for a change, pressing the candidates hard on their weak points instead of pitching softballs to let them promote themselves.

  4. avatar
    RanTalbott August 7, 2015 at 4:30 pm #

    Reality Check: Did anyone bring up Trumps Birthering? I am guessing not.

    You guessed right. Time put the transcript online. No mention of birfering.

  5. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 7, 2015 at 4:59 pm #

    There was a fairly significant cumulative update released August 5 that you should put on if you haven’t already. I have had virtually no problems with Windows 10 on 6 machines EXCEPT the killer bug with file system permissions when OneDrive is installed, what promoted my Facebook post recommending people not install Windows 10 yet. After a lot of work and testing, I have come up with a workaround for that problem. It’s posted on the Microsoft Answers site along with hundreds of other angst-filled comments; however, it’s not for the complete novice who would be uncomfortable setting permissions on a folder, or creating a file share.

    Reality Check: I saw your Facebook post about Windows 10 and OneDrive.

  6. avatar
    Rickey August 8, 2015 at 1:51 am #

    Reality Check:
    I have found Windows 10 is very buggy. I upgraded my Windows 7 desktop and it is freezing up one or more times per day. Windows 7 was rock solid on the same machine. I downloaded the latest AMD Catalyst drivers this morning and already had my first crash.

    My experience on a couple of laptops is a little better. They were both 8.1 before.

    I read a couple of reviews which suggested waiting several months before moving from Windows 7 to Windows 10. I’m running Windows 7 and rarely have a problem, so I see no reason to rush into 10.

  7. avatar
    Dave August 8, 2015 at 9:59 am #

    Erick Erickson has disinvited Trump from the Red State Conference, due to Trump’s comments about Megyn Kelly.

    Erickson is not particularly influential. But the fact that Trump has lost someone this wingnutty seems significant in a canary-in-the-coal-mine kind of way.

  8. avatar
    Lupin August 8, 2015 at 11:22 am #

    Dave:
    Erick Erickson has disinvited Trump from the Red State Conference, due to Trump’s comments about Megyn Kelly.

    Erickson is not particularly influential. But the fact that Trump has lost someone this wingnutty seems significant in a canary-in-the-coal-mine kind of way.

    Excellent! The GOP’s long knives are out for Trump. They will alienate their base and perhaps even drive Trump into a third-party run. Either way their goose is cooked. I can’t wait to lap their bitter bitter tears.

  9. avatar
    donna August 8, 2015 at 11:35 am #

    erick ercikson said:

    “If you haven’t heard, I disinvited Donald Trump. [ Cheers and applause ] I’ve got my wife here, I’ve got my daughter here, I have 800 friends of mine here. It’s a family friendly program. If he’s not going to clarify that this isn’t what he meant, I don’t think I want him at my event.”

    BTW,

    #1 in CNN’s PDF of their september debate rules:

    Fulfill the requirements outlined in Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution of the United States

    where are the birthers?

    “Four Popular GOP Candidates Fail To Make AZ Tea Party “natural born Citizen” Presidential Straw Poll”

    they eliminated cruz, jindal, rubio and santorum

    http://www.birtherreport.com/2015/08/four-popular-gop-candidates-fail-to.html

  10. avatar
    Arthur B. August 8, 2015 at 12:08 pm #

    Lupin: The GOP’s long knives are out for Trump. They will alienate their base and perhaps even drive Trump into a third-party run. Either way their goose is cooked.

    Let me go out on a limb: I think one of the big losers here is Ted Cruz.

    Back in the days when he was being particularly outrageous — the government shutdown, the Dr. Seuss filibuster, etc. — I felt that his intention was clear. He sensed (correctly, I believe) that the Republican party was on the verge of a split, and he wanted to position himself as the founding father of the wingnut faction.

    But this would not be the split he was hoping for. There are wingnuts who like Megyn Kelly and Fox News, wingnuts who aren’t ready to embrace misogyny quite this raw.

    I can’t see Cruz embracing Trump in this one — but it may mean that the RWNJ train will leave the station without him.

  11. avatar
    Dave B. August 8, 2015 at 1:14 pm #

    Comment left over at the American News:
    “I’ll bye him a bus ticket back to Kenya or wherever the hell he’s from”

  12. avatar
    Reality Check August 8, 2015 at 1:54 pm #

    I agree with you. As a matter of fact I gave up on Windows 10 and reverted back to Windows 7 just now. The machine was locking up and not turning displays back on when it went into screen saver mode. I could not get it back without doing a power button shutdown. I will also wait several months. before attempting an upgrade.

    I have two laptops that were upgraded from 8.1 to 10 and they seem to run OK.

    Rickey: I read a couple of reviews which suggested waiting several months before moving from Windows 7 to Windows 10. I’m running Windows 7 and rarely have a problem, so I see no reason to rush into 10.

  13. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 8, 2015 at 3:56 pm #

    After fixing some issues (the OneDrive permissions bug) and some other problems related to the upgrade, everything here is running pretty well (that’s 4 Windows 8.1 and 2 Windows 7 upgrades). Cortana continues to be unavailable more times than it is.

    Reality Check: I agree with you. As a matter of fact I gave up on Windows 10 and reverted back to Windows 7 just now. The machine was locking up and not turning displays back on when it went into screen saver mode. I could not get it back without doing a power button shutdown. I will also wait several months. before attempting an upgrade.

  14. avatar
    Rickey August 9, 2015 at 12:21 am #

    Dr. Conspiracy:
    After fixing some issues (the OneDrive permissions bug) and some other problems related to the upgrade, everything here is running pretty well (that’s 4 Windows 8.1 and 2 Windows 7 upgrades). Cortana continues to be unavailable more times than it is.

    I’m seeing a lot of comments about privacy concerns. Apparently the default settings for Windows 10 allow Microsoft to see a lot of information on a user’s computer. Many people are recommending that users decline to use the express installation and set their own privacy settings by using the custom install option.

  15. avatar
    bgansel9 August 9, 2015 at 9:25 pm #

    donna: they eliminated cruz, jindal, rubio and santorum

    Santorum was born in Virginia. Why is he ineligible? Am I missing something? LOL

  16. avatar
    bob August 10, 2015 at 2:26 am #

    bgansel9: Santorum was born in Virginia. Why is he ineligible? Am I missing something? LOL

    The birther issue with Santorum is his father: I forget the details, but either he wasn’t a U.S. citizen at Santorum’s birth, or had Italian citizenship at Santorum’s birth (which was then passed on). Either way, it is a claim that even most birthers don’t acknowledge it; Kerchner (IIRC) is the biggest proponent of this “theory.”

  17. avatar
    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater August 10, 2015 at 5:11 am #

    bob: The birther issue with Santorum is his father: I forget the details, but either he wasn’t a U.S. citizen at Santorum’s birth, or had Italian citizenship at Santorum’s birth (which was then passed on). Either way, it is a claim that even most birthers don’t acknowledge it; Kerchner (IIRC) is the biggest proponent of this “theory.”

    Except that’s crap too since not even Mario apuzzo believes this. Santorum’s father came over as a minor with grandfather. His grandfather naturalized in 1930. Santorums father as a minor would have automatically been naturalized with his grandfather. This was well before rick was born. Even using the birther two citizen parent theory he would qualify. Santorums mother was born in America.

  18. avatar
    Rickey August 10, 2015 at 12:10 pm #

    bob: The birther issue with Santorum is his father: I forget the details, but either he wasn’t a U.S. citizen at Santorum’s birth, or had Italian citizenship at Santorum’s birth (which was then passed on). Either way, it is a claim that even most birthers don’t acknowledge it; Kerchner (IIRC) is the biggest proponent of this “theory.”

    Kerchner claims that there is no evidence that Santorum’s father naturalized before Rick was born. The National Archives responded to Kerchner’s request by saying that they could not find a record of Aldo Santorum (Rick’s father) or Pietro Santorum (his grandfather). However, Kerchner also was told that they could have been naturalized in a state, local or county court, in which case the National Archives would not have the records.

    https://cdrkerchner.wordpress.com/2012/03/06/rick-santorum-still-refusing-to-provide-copies-of-naturalization-papers-proving-his-father-was-a-u-s-citizen-when-rick-was-born/

  19. avatar
    Notorial Dissent August 10, 2015 at 12:52 pm #

    It would depend on when the grandfather naturalized. I don’t remember the date at which ALL naturalizations had to take place before a Federal Court, but for most of the nation’s history you could do so in state court and that is where the docs would be, they were never copied or converted to Federal records, so the ARchives wouldn’t have them. Finding them at the state level can be a royal pain or done very easily depending on the state’s record system and practices.

  20. avatar
    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater August 10, 2015 at 12:54 pm #

    Rickey: Kerchner claims that there is no evidence that Santorum’s father naturalized before Rick was born. The National Archives responded to Kerchner’s request by saying that they could not find a record of Aldo Santorum (Rick’s father) or Pietro Santorum (his grandfather). However, Kerchner also was told that they could have been naturalized in a state, local or county court, in which case the National Archives would not have the records.

    https://cdrkerchner.wordpress.com/2012/03/06/rick-santorum-still-refusing-to-provide-copies-of-naturalization-papers-proving-his-father-was-a-u-s-citizen-when-rick-was-born/

    That’s pretty interesting considering Kerchner has this up: https://www.scribd.com/doc/108907280/100-Proof-Rick-Santorum-Born-a-Dual-Citizen-Not-a-Natural-Born-Citizen-Father-still-an-Italian-citizen-in-1958-and-only-perfected-naturalization

    In which he then turns to dual citizenship as a reason for Rick Santorum not being a natural born citizen because his father might have been a dual citizen? Notice the file clearly says Aldo Santorum became a citizen in 1930 before Rick Santorum was born. Kerchner ignores that. He also ignores that his buddy Mario believes Santorum to be a natural born citizen
    http://puzo1.blogspot.com/2015/01/rick-santorum-is-article-ii-natural.html

  21. avatar
    William Rawle August 10, 2015 at 1:08 pm #

    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: Kerchner ignores that

    Kerchner’s argument is based on a technicality. Santorum’s grandfather naturalized in March, 1930 and his son (Aldo) came to the US in August, 1930 (he was seven at the time). Aldo apparently didn’t file any forms necessary to claim citizenship until 1961 after Rick was born. But as you point out the 1961 examiner said that Aldo was a US citizen beginning in 1930 when he became a permanent resident.

  22. avatar
    y_p_w August 10, 2015 at 7:03 pm #

    Just as an interesting sidenote for those interested in such things. Apparently in Massachusetts, in addition to ordering from the state, one can generally order a birth certificate from the city of birth. Some cities also issue birth certificates for those whose parents resided in that city (but not all), so they probably get sent a copy of the record to keep in their files. Cambridge is one of them.

    https://www.cambridgema.gov/cityclrk/birthcertificate

    The Cambridge City Clerk’s Office issues certified copies of birth certificates for births occurring in Cambridge and for Cambridge residents at the time of birth.

    I found one city that has an interesting document. It’s apparently filled out and individually signed by the city clerk. I’m thinking it could be typed if need be, but this one was completely filled in someone’s handwriting (probably the city clerk since it matches the signature). It looks like it’s on a half-sheet of paper, printed as a standard fill-in form (with a union printing logo to boot) and one what should be a familiar security paper.

    http://www.thelostys.com/Losty/Russell_Losty_Birth_Certificate.jpg

    And I know Doc C’s policy on naming people who aren’t famous. However, this guy is either deceased or 103, so I’m thinking linking to his BC isn’t that big an issue.

  23. avatar
    RanTalbott August 10, 2015 at 10:08 pm #

    Also slightly interesting is that Losty was born in October, but his BC wasn’t filed until March. I wonder if his parents were farmers who couldn’t get into town during the winter.

  24. avatar
    y_p_w August 11, 2015 at 1:28 am #

    RanTalbott:
    Also slightly interesting is that Losty was born in October, but his BC wasn’t filed until March. I wonder if his parents were farmers who couldn’t get into town during the winter.

    I got it from a genealogy website with lots of background including the address of his residence at birth (maybe where he was born?). They were apparently living at a house (built in 1880) that’s still there. It also sounds like it was the city center even back then. However, the guy was born in 1911, which is right around the time when official birth registration started to become standard. His dad was a “paper maker” (made rulers, notepads, etc) in the city, so not farmers. Don’t know why it was delayed, but I don’t believe there’s anything suspect about it. Even Richard Nixon (born 1913) didn’t get his birth certificate filed until he was an adult, and it was via court order.

    I found it curious because it looks like this particular city fills out the information in their certified copies of birth certificates by hand.

  25. avatar
    RanTalbott August 11, 2015 at 3:12 am #

    y_p_w: However, the guy was born in 1911, which is right around the time when official birth registration started to become standard.

    Ah, I guessed wrong: I figured it probably started becoming common sometime in the mid-1800s and become pretty much universal by the turn of the century.

    I wasn’t suspicious: since moving out to the country, I’ve become more aware of just how isolated farm and ranch life could be before we had paved and plowed roads and fast cars. I thought that might be an example.

  26. avatar
    The Magic M (not logged in) August 11, 2015 at 4:04 am #

    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: In which he then turns to dual citizenship as a reason for Rick Santorum not being a natural born citizen because his father might have been a dual citizen?

    That was the fallback for the fallback.
    Vattelism was the birther fallback for the case that they couldn’t prove Obama was born in Kenya, or that nobody would impeach the validitiy of the Hawaiian BC.
    The dual citizen crap is the fallback for the case it might have turned out Obama sr. naturalized at some point.
    Kerchner’s problem with that is that he can’t even point to something like Vattel but only do some hand-waving about “Founders’ intent”.

  27. avatar
    bob August 11, 2015 at 5:08 pm #

    The 9th Circuit finally calendared Taitz’s Grinols case. (For October 20.)

    Although oral arguments have been tentatively scheduled, there’s no guarantee they will actually occur. The court can (and probably will) decide the case on the briefs.

  28. avatar
    The Magic M (not logged in) August 13, 2015 at 5:07 am #

    BR touts Vattelist professor, neglects to mention he’s not a professor of law:
    http://www.birtherreport.com/2015/08/hawaii-reporter-professor-skidmore-sets.html

  29. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 13, 2015 at 8:16 am #

    Good point:

    http://faculty.piercecollege.edu/Rskidmore/

    The Magic M (not logged in):
    BR touts Vattelist professor, neglects to mention he’s not a professor of law:
    http://www.birtherreport.com/2015/08/hawaii-reporter-professor-skidmore-sets.html

  30. avatar
    RanTalbott August 13, 2015 at 9:57 am #

    The Magic M (not logged in): BR touts Vattelist professor, neglects to mention he’s not a professor of law:

    Also neglects to mention that the OpEd they’re touting is from 2011.

    The other hot item of the day in GerbilLand is that Strunk made ABC’s story about bizarre presidential candidates who’ve filed with the FEC, along with the likes of Crawfish B. Crawfish (yes, he is), Limberbutt McCubbins (a cat), and some others whose species (and, indeed, animate status) can’t be determined.

    I think they’ve scraped through the bottom of the barrel, fallen in headfirst, and are now digging a fracking well.

  31. avatar
    Lupin August 13, 2015 at 10:08 am #

    The Magic M (not logged in):
    BR touts Vattelist professor, neglects to mention he’s not a professor of law:
    http://www.birtherreport.com/2015/08/hawaii-reporter-professor-skidmore-sets.html

    Actually Skidmore does not seem to use or (mis)quote Vattel in his article.

  32. avatar
    bob August 13, 2015 at 11:40 am #

    BR (back when it was called ORYR) published Skidmore’s article in 2011. Junk recycled four years later is still junk.

  33. avatar
    Rickey August 13, 2015 at 11:41 am #

    Pierce College is a two-year college which does not teach law and does not have a pre-law curriculum. I guess that having the title of “Professor” is all that is required to qualify as an expert, as long as you are a birther,

  34. avatar
    Dave B. August 13, 2015 at 12:20 pm #

    Or a castaway.

    Rickey:
    Pierce College is a two-year college which does not teach law and does not have a pre-law curriculum. I guess that having the title of “Professor” is all that is required to qualify as an expert, as long as you are a birther,

  35. avatar
    Dave B. August 13, 2015 at 1:52 pm #

    Birther holding forth on the common law over at the Young Conservatives:
    “Not withstanding that some of the founders were multilingual, Vattel influenced the common law of existing countries including England before the revolution.”

    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/theyoungcons/ted_cruz_says_campaign_contributions_skyrocketed_after_debate/#comment-2185960485

  36. avatar
    Matt August 13, 2015 at 9:32 pm #

    So today I thought I’d see how Jade Helm 15 is going. My parents live in one of the exercise states, so I wanted to make sure they haven’t been rounded up into a FEMA camp.

    While surfing the web, I ran across this nutjob: David Chase Taylor (currently seeking political asylum in Switzerland, as he states every time he posts something) and his news alerts on https://truthernews.wordpress.com/

    Wow! The Obama regime sure has been busy planning terrorist attacks on American citizens! Here’s just a sampling on what’s in store for August: (all headlines are available on the above linked site)

    NFL TERROR ALERT (AUG 13-16, 2015): Obama Likely Plotting Attack on NFL Preseason Week 1 Games

    CIRCUS TERROR ALERT (AUG-DEC, 2015): Obama Targeting Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Circuses—Eco/Domestic Terrorist Attack Expected in 2015

    MLB TERROR ALERT (AUG 13-16, 2015): 9/11-Style Bio-Terror Attack & Race War Massacre Trending

    FERGUSON TERROR ALERT (AUG 12-17, 2015): Obama Plotting Wave of Race Riots, Race War Attacks & Massacres in Aftermath of Staged Tyrone Harris Shooting—Active Shooter Attacks by Oath Keepers Expected

    Also, too, this clown REALLY hates Alex Jones 🙂
    https://truthernews.wordpress.com/2012/02/19/10-reasons-why-alex-jones-should-be-tried-for-treason/

  37. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 13, 2015 at 9:35 pm #

    Strange comment at BR from someone posting as White Hat:

    Well, he’s [Donald Trump] winning because he’s doing exactly what we tell him to do.

    It’s nice to have a candidate who actually listens. We haven’t had one this obedient since Palin.

    Read more at http://www.birtherreport.com/2015/08/abc-news-meet-most-interesting-2016.html#s245bDV0mYzkgX5I.99

  38. avatar
    Matt August 13, 2015 at 9:50 pm #

    Story related to my last post:
    How federal agents foiled a murderous Jade Helm 15 retaliation plot

    http://www.dallasnews.com/news/state/headlines/20150807-how-federal-agents-foiled-a-murderous-jade-helm-15-retaliation-plot.ece

    The story is that three men from North Carolina stockpiled a bunch of explosives, ammo, and body armor. The guy that sold them the stuff was concerned, so he became an FBI informant. The feds were none too happy, arrested the men and charged them with conspiracy and amassing weapons.

  39. avatar
    RanTalbott August 13, 2015 at 11:00 pm #

    Dr. Conspiracy: Well, he’s [Donald Trump] winning because he’s doing exactly what we tell him to do.

    Doubly strange because he’s not: the gerbils want him to go Full Metal Birther, and he keeps trying to distance himself from it.

    I saw an interesting analysis recently from Maddow of why Trump is defying our expectations of crashing like previous “vanity” candidates. Most people (including me) figured that, once Republican voters started seeing that Trump would inevitably fail in the general election (not to mention at governing), they’d start switching to a “serious” candidate as they have in years past.

    But a poll a couple of weeks ago also asked them whether it was more important to have a candidate espousing the positions they want promoted, or to have one who’s electable. The chose the former by over 2-to-1.

    Maddow’s take on that is that we’re not just seeing a flash in the pan based on name recognition, but a large segment who really do like having Trump as their spokesman, and don’t care that nominating him would be throwing the election.

    That’ll probably change as the election gets closer, but it does mean that the GOP side of the primaries is likely to remain The Trump Show for months, not weeks.

  40. avatar
    Dave B. August 13, 2015 at 11:44 pm #

    Over at the American News they had an article about the first thing Donald Trump’s going to do when he’s president– they say he’s got the election “in the bag.” I left a comment saying if you want to tell people what to think, the first thing you want to do is tell them what they think they want to hear. Now I can call ’em liars, I can say they operate on the principle that most of their readers are so dumb they can tell them whatever they want to, I can talk about ’em like a bunch of red-headed stepchildren; but that was too much. They took that one down.

    Dr. Conspiracy: Strange comment at BR from someone posting as White Hat:

    Well, he’s [Donald Trump] winning because he’s doing exactly what we tell him to do.

  41. avatar
    bgansel9 August 13, 2015 at 11:51 pm #

    Dave B.: they say he’s got the election “in the bag.”

    Yeah, Mitt Romney thought that too. LOL Remember Karl Rove’s inability to accept the results after the race had been called, and the Unskewed Polls that had the rightwingers absolutely CONVINCED they were going to take the White House? LOL The right sees that they LOVE Trump, but they don’t take into account that even more people are turned off by him every time he opens his mouth (and let’s face it, who is going to call a race when only 25 to 30% of one political party is supporting that candidate?)

    But I for one would LOVE to see a repeat of the last time they talked themselves into a win that didn’t exist. It was quite delicious.

  42. avatar
    Keith August 14, 2015 at 3:42 am #

    The Magic M (not logged in) (in another thread, now closed) :

    More birfin’ ’bout Nixon:

    * “Date of filing” stamp should be on one (slanted) line, looks like the year was stamped separately (“no stamp is this crooked”).
    [Actually it likely *are* two different stamps judging from the different look of the “2”. Birther: “But why???”]
    * The “a” seems to have arbitrarily different baselines (lowered and slightly lowered in “California”, not lowered in “March”).
    * What is a “Certificate of Live Dirth”? (cf. “TXE”)
    * Three different letter sizes in “ORDER” (“E” and final “R” being larger than the preceding letter, respectively).
    * The “a” in “male” is clearly from a different font than the ones in “Yorba Linda”.
    * The two “2”‘s in “224” were clearly written in two different handwritings, ergo by two different persons.
    [Actually it looks like the first one was a “1” and was overwritten.]

    Ergo: IT’S A FOGETY!

    You mean like this one: https://youtu.be/40JmEj0_aVM

  43. avatar
    The Magic M (not logged in) August 14, 2015 at 7:04 am #

    bgansel9: the Unskewed Polls that had the rightwingers absolutely CONVINCED they were going to take the White House? […]
    who is going to call a race when only 25 to 30% of one political party is supporting that candidate?

    Exactly. I often point out to Trump on Twitter that he currently has 1/4th of 1/4th of the voters in his pocket (he probably thinks that equates to 50%). And the real mud-slinging hasn’t even started (what with all his former business shenanigans).

    Recent polls have Hillary up +12 to +16 against Trump. And while Trump may still be able to drive up his share of the Republican vote, it’s unlikely anything he says or does will improve his ratings among the general electorate (and yelling “Benghazi” for 6 months on end won’t help the GOP either).

    RanTalbott: But a poll a couple of weeks ago also asked them whether it was more important to have a candidate espousing the positions they want promoted, or to have one who’s electable. The chose the former by over 2-to-1.

    No surprise. The GOP has always prided itself to value “our set of values set in stone” over the will of the majority.

    RanTalbott: but a large segment who really do like having Trump as their spokesman, and don’t care that nominating him would be throwing the election

    It reeks of desperation. They know how popular Hillary is and that a run-of-the-mill candidate would suffer a worse defeat than McCain and Romney.

    Now I don’t want to invoke Godwin’s Law, but the rise of a demagogue who tells people the (self-proclaimed) “oppressed” everything they want to hear eeriely reminds me of another such person in my country nigh a century ago.
    (Trump isn’t Hitler, of course, but the pattern by which he attempts to rise to power is very similar.)

  44. avatar
    Lupin August 14, 2015 at 9:51 am #

    Surprise, surprise! RedState Eric Erickson finally meets the Gerbil Base of the GOP and discovers they are imbeciles, thugs or both.

    http://www.redstate.com/2015/08/14/can-we-recalibrate/

    For someone who claims to be a Christian, he seemed to have missed the passage about “you shall reap what you sow.”

    Pushing Trump amongst the Gerbils (with nothing less than the truth!) is already paying delicious dividends. I need to order more popcorn.

  45. avatar
    Rickey August 14, 2015 at 11:16 am #

    RanTalbott: Doubly strange because he’s not: the gerbils want him to go Full Metal Birther, and he keeps trying to distance himself from it.

    I saw an interesting analysis recently from Maddow of why Trump is defying our expectations of crashing like previous “vanity” candidates. Most people (including me) figured that, once Republican voters started seeing that Trump would inevitably fail in the general election (not to mention at governing), they’d start switching to a “serious” candidate as they have in years past.

    But a poll a couple of weeks ago also asked them whether it was more important to have a candidate espousing the positions they want promoted, or to have one who’s electable. The chose the former by over 2-to-1.

    Maddow’s take on that is that we’re not just seeing a flash in the pan based on name recognition, but a large segment who really do like having Trump as their spokesman, and don’t care that nominating him would be throwing the election.

    That’ll probably change as the election gets closer, but it does mean that the GOP side of the primaries is likely to remain The Trump Show for months, not weeks.

    The other factor is that Trump, unlike the other candidates, isn’t dependent upon donors in order to remain in the race. Typically a primary candidate crashes and burns after performing poorly in a straw poll or a primary and the donations stop coming in. The campaign can’t pay its bills or its staff, so it shuts down.

    I don’t know how much money Trump actually as, but it seems that can self-finance his campaign for as long as necessary. He also has the advantage that the media cover everything he says. And I now am convinced that he really believes that he has a chance to win.

  46. avatar
    J.D. Sue August 14, 2015 at 12:19 pm #

    The Magic M (not logged in): Now I don’t want to invoke Godwin’s Law, but the rise of a demagogue who tells people the (self-proclaimed) “oppressed” everything they want to hear eeriely reminds me of another such person in my country nigh a century ago.
    (Trump isn’t Hitler, of course, but the pattern by which he attempts to rise to power is very similar.)


    I concur. And he tells them they will be ‘great again’ if they just get rid of 11 million people …. Scary stuff.

    Back when Sarah Palin was running for VP, I came across a term that I think is so apropos to the American RWNJ movement: Palingenetic Ultranationalism

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palingenetic_ultranationalism

  47. avatar
    Crustacean August 14, 2015 at 1:05 pm #

    From what I’ve read on BR, I’d say White Hat is an Obot who’s having a little fun with the (ir)regulars there.

    The term “White Hats” can refer to hackers who try to penetrate computer systems with the goal of helping the system’s owners identify weaknesses. I believe it is also a term for “good guy” secret agents. I think the BR commenter who uses that name is trying to give the impression that he or she is one of these mysterious spies, part of some kind of shadowy Illuminati-like group that secretly runs the country – writing, for example, that Obama works for them, not the other way around.

    So the “doing what we tell him to do” is not a reference to Trump’s doing the bidding of birthers, but rather the bidding of this secret cabal. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least a few of those poor, gullible suckers at BR believe it’s true. If so, kudos to White Hat! 🙂

    Dr. Conspiracy: Strange comment at BR from someone posting as White Hat: “Well, he’s [Donald Trump] winning because he’s doing exactly what we tell him to do.”

    RanTalbott: Doubly strange because he’s not: the gerbils want him to go Full Metal Birther, and he keeps trying to distance himself from it.

  48. avatar
    Dave B. August 14, 2015 at 1:22 pm #

    Republicans getting some birfer on them:
    http://www.rawstory.com/2015/08/california-gop-group-plans-taste-of-kenya-fundraiser-headlined-by-birther-filmmaker/

  49. avatar
    Dave B. August 14, 2015 at 1:45 pm #

    Jedi Pauly’s got a new blog, flogging his book:
    https://paulaaronguthrie.wordpress.com
    “I know you’ve wondered about what happened to me after I went to England seeking political asylum…”

  50. avatar
    Dave B. August 14, 2015 at 1:50 pm #

    David Farrar telling yet another bald-faced lie over at the Conservative HQ:

    “7 FAM 1131.6-2 Eligibility for Presidency (d)
    Submitted by david.is.farrar on Wed, 08/12/2015 – 22:21.
    Congress has specifically stated that statutory U.S.citizens may not be Art. II §I Cl. 5 natural born Citizens for constitutional purposes.*

    Moreover, there is nothing in Title 8 USC §1401 (g), the statutory provision Sen Cruz states bestows his U.S. citizenship at birth, that requires any participation in any further naturalization procedures later. But most signification of all, natural born citizens do not acquire the citizens by the grace of Congress, but by natural right, a point that was not lost on the founders and framers of the U.S. Constitution.

    * Source: Google: “7 Fam 1131.6-2 Eligibility for President””

    http://www.conservativehq.com/article/20851-tea-party-leader-becky-gerritson-endorses-ted-cruz-president

  51. avatar
    Crustacean August 14, 2015 at 2:14 pm #

    I second that emotion, Sue!! Magic M put it perfectly: “the (self-proclaimed) ‘oppressed.’ ”

    And the head-smacking irony is that many birthers would apply that phrase to the “Black Lives Matter” folks, completely oblivious to the fact that it is a much better fit for themselves.

    And speaking of oblivious, birthers have expressed frustration that Trump isn’t using his soap box to birf to the heavens and “expose” Obama as a fraud. They don’t seem to realize that for Trump to birf would be poison to his campaign.

    If I had been one of The Donald’s GOP debate opponents, I would’ve hammered him relentlessly on it, with something like this: ladies and gentlemen, Donald Trump has no business being anywhere near the Oval Office, for many reasons, but we only need one: he is a birther. Seriously, think upon that for a moment. He is a birther! Is that someone you want in the White House? He said he had people in Hawaii who were finding out unbelievable things about Obama. I will ask him now – and I encourage any journalist who has any pride in their profession to ask the same question – what did your people find, Mr. Trump? And when he gives another one of his non-answers, ask him again, and again, until he answers: what did your people find?

    Anyone with any sense knows that President Obama was born in Hawaii, so we know they couldn’t have found anything fraudulent related to his birth certificate. What was it that your people couldn’t believe, Mr. Trump? And if these people didn’t really find anything, why didn’t you say anything about that to clear up the misunderstanding? There is no room for crackpots in this forum, so Mr. Trump has a lot of explaining to do.

    J.D. Sue: I concur. And he tells them they will be ‘great again’ if they just get rid of 11 million people …. Scary stuff.

  52. avatar
    bob August 14, 2015 at 2:58 pm #

    D.C. Cir. affirms dismissal of Arpaio/Klayman’s challenge to Obama’s executive actions on immigration.

    Between this and the court tossing Klayman’s RICO suit against the Clintons, this just isn’t Klayman’s week.

  53. avatar
    Sef August 14, 2015 at 5:11 pm #

    bob:
    D.C. Cir. affirms dismissal of Arpaio/Klayman’s challenge to Obama’s executive actions on immigration.

    Between this and the court tossing Klayman’s RICO suit against the Clintons, this just isn’t Klayman’s week.

    bob beat me to this one. Some more info at http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/sheriff-joe-smacked-down-by-appeals-court . The comments are hilarious. There are links to other stories of relevance here.

  54. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 14, 2015 at 8:24 pm #

    Speaking of Obots at BR, Pastor Bandini has been banned, and outed himself at The Fogbow as none other than Foggy himself.

    Crustacean: From what I’ve read on BR, I’d say White Hat is an Obot who’s having a little fun with the (ir)regulars there.

  55. avatar
    Pete August 14, 2015 at 9:34 pm #

    Dr. Conspiracy: MCSO HQ on lockdown due to powdery substance:

    Probably just an unlabeled delivery of whatever it is they snort in that place.

  56. avatar
    Crustacean August 14, 2015 at 10:49 pm #

    Well played, Pete!

    Or could it be that Sheriff Joe spontaneously combusted? I’m pretty sure that would leave a white powdery substance.

    Pete: Probably just an unlabeled delivery of whatever it is they snort in that place.

  57. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 14, 2015 at 11:01 pm #

    Joel Gilbert to appear at GOP “Kenyan themed fundraiser.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2015/08/california-gop-group-plans-taste-of-kenya-fundraiser-headlined-by-birther-filmmaker/

  58. avatar
    Punchmaster via Mobile August 15, 2015 at 12:21 am #

    Dr. Conspiracy:
    MCSO HQ on lockdown due to powdery substance:

    http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/breaking/2015/08/14/mcso-headquarters-lock-down-powdery-substance/31747403/

    That’s just the talc, for Shurfjoke’s Depends.

  59. avatar
    Keith August 15, 2015 at 3:00 am #

    Rickey: I don’t know how much money Trump actually as, but it seems that can self-finance his campaign for as long as necessary. He also has the advantage that the media cover everything he says.

    That, I believe is his strategy: constantly be saying such stupid things that he gets all the air time he could ever want for free. He doesn’t need donors or a personal fortune for that.

  60. avatar
    Keith August 15, 2015 at 3:01 am #

    J.D. Sue: I concur. And he tells them they will be ‘great again’ if they just get rid of 11 million people …. Scary stuff.

    Yeah. Interesting number that. I wonder where I’ve heard it before?

  61. avatar
    The Magic M (not logged in) August 15, 2015 at 3:56 am #

    Dr. Conspiracy: MCSO HQ on lockdown due to powdery substance

    Next up: “Sorry Mr. Monitor, we hads to throw away them hard-drives, theys had what might’ve been anthrax sprayed all over, it was a sneaky mess, I tells ya!”

  62. avatar
    Dave August 15, 2015 at 11:56 am #

    Washington Post: An Iowa surprise: Donald Trump is actually trying to win.

  63. avatar
    Kate August 16, 2015 at 11:20 am #

    Watching Trump on MTP this a.m. was nauseating but I decided to tolerate it out of curiosity, wondering if he’s toned it down since the debate. One of the most ignorant answers he gave was to Todd’s question about where does he get his military advice. “I watch the shows.” Just imagine if any REAL candidate said something along those lines. Todd let Trump get away with repeating the lies about spending $4 million dollars on legal fees to hide his records after asking him if he really believed President Obama was a citizen. None of these so-called journalists will pin him down on anything and then when he answers, he just filibusters endlessly, never really saying anything, just talking in circles. Trump says the last time America was great was during the Reagan administration and then Todd brings up an ad Trump took out at the time bashing the Reagan administration. He tried to bullshit his way out of that one, too, and, of course, Chuck Todd let him get away with it.

  64. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 16, 2015 at 1:20 pm #

    I just wonder how much Trump spent trying to hide the top of his head.

    Kate: Todd let Trump get away with repeating the lies about spending $4 million dollars on legal fees to hide his records

  65. avatar
    RanTalbott August 16, 2015 at 2:41 pm #

    Dr. Conspiracy: I just wonder how much Trump spent trying to hide the top of his head.

    I actually think he _might_ have spent a fair amount: I haven’t cared enough to look really carefully, but your mention of it reminded me that I got the impression the other day that he was doing a “comb-over” from the back to hide a receding hairline in front.

    Or maybe it was a mistaken impression from a cursory glance. But, even if I’m wrong, he’s probably spending more than the average family income in the non-industrialized world to maintain his hair.

  66. avatar
    J.D. Sue August 16, 2015 at 4:47 pm #

    Dr. Conspiracy: I just wonder how much Trump spent trying to hide the top of his head.

    —-
    Maybe he negotiated a terrific deal with his wife for some of her fantastic caviar-based age-defying products.

  67. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 16, 2015 at 4:55 pm #

    Ten or fifteen years ago, I saw a commercial for hair transplant that mentioned the phrase “bad comb-over.” i looked in the mirror and never tried that again.

    RanTalbott: I got the impression the other day that he was doing a “comb-over” from the back to hide a receding hairline in front.

  68. avatar
    Lupin August 17, 2015 at 2:44 am #

    Kate: Watching Trump on MTP this a.m. was nauseating

    Watching MTP in general has been a nauseating experience since the drumming towards the Iraq war.

  69. avatar
    donna August 17, 2015 at 9:17 am #

    A Q&A with Jack Cashill: “Birthers Say These 4 GOP Candidates May Be Ineligible To Be President”

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/rubio-jindal-cruz-santorum-birthers

  70. avatar
    The Magic M (not logged in) August 17, 2015 at 10:55 am #

    donna: “Birthers Say These 4 GOP Candidates May Be Ineligible To Be President”

    I would include Trump who was born in Jamaica according to an internet image of his purported short form BC. And given birthers haven’t seen any other candidate’s BC, the entire GOP field should be called “may be ineligible” by them.

  71. avatar
    Rickey August 17, 2015 at 12:00 pm #

    donna:
    A Q&A with Jack Cashill: “Birthers Say These 4 GOP Candidates May Be Ineligible To Be President”

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/rubio-jindal-cruz-santorum-birthers

    Cashill says this in his article:

    Still, in 2008 McCain had to jump through all kind of hoops, including a hearing in the U.S. Senate, to confirm his eligibility.

    On Saturday I sent the following e-mail to Cashill:

    I just read your article dated 8/12/15 at World Net Daily.

    I am curious about this sentence:

    “Still, in 2008 McCain had to jump through all kind of hoops, including a hearing in the U.S. Senate, to confirm his eligibility.”

    Can you tell me when this hearing took place? I have searched through the Congressional Record and cannot find any record of such a hearing. I am familiar with Senate Resolution 511, which was handled as a “simple resolution.” It was introduced on April 10, 2008 and was referred to the Judiciary Committee. Senator Leahy, who was then Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, marked it up and reported it to the full Senate without amendments on April 24. But there is no record that I can find of the Judiciary Committee holding a hearing on it.

    If you have evidence to support your claim that a hearing was held, I would appreciate knowing what that evidence is.

    No response from him yet.

  72. avatar
    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater August 17, 2015 at 12:46 pm #

    Rickey: If you have evidence to support your claim that a hearing was held, I would appreciate knowing what that evidence is.

    No response from him yet.

    And I doubt you ever will. Also I’m curious about the so-called hoops McCain had to jump through. What was their make-up, dimensions and what types? Were they specifically of the hula variety?

  73. avatar
    Jim August 17, 2015 at 12:52 pm #

    At least they should be flaming hoops too.

  74. avatar
    Rickey August 17, 2015 at 1:06 pm #

    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: And I doubt you ever will.Also I’m curious about the so-called hoops McCain had to jump through.What was their make-up, dimensions and what types?Were they specifically of the hula variety?

    Given McCain’s age, it would have been unseemly to make him jump through any hoops, hula or otherwise.

    Of course, the only other “hoop” I can think of was Hollander v. McCain, and it looks like the RNC did all the work on that for him.

  75. avatar
    Nancy R Owens August 17, 2015 at 1:48 pm #

    Update:

    To FBI/Interpol, List Of Assassinations Of Nancy R Owens, Medellin Cartel (Partial)

    http://beforeitsnews.com/obama-birthplace-controversy/2015/08/to-fbiinterpol-list-of-assassinations-of-nancy-r-owens-medellin-cartel-partial-2492612.html

  76. avatar
    Rickey August 17, 2015 at 3:21 pm #

    I found a list of the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings for April, 2008. There was no hearing on Senate Resolution 511.

    http://www.judiciary.senate.gov/hearings?month=04&year=2008&c=all

  77. avatar
    bgansel9 August 17, 2015 at 5:58 pm #

    I haven’t read the thread to see if anyone else has addressed this yet, but, Doc… have you seen this?

    http://www.examiner.com/article/ted-cruz-must-show-naturalization-papers-to-keep-his-us-senate-seat

    I went to the SCRIBD link on that article and I don’t see where Cruz’s mother renounced her U.S. Citizenship. Looks like total BS to me. Opinions?

  78. avatar
    bgansel9 August 17, 2015 at 6:00 pm #

    Nancy R Owens: Update:

    To FBI/Interpol, List Of Assassinations Of Nancy R Owens, Medellin Cartel (Partial)

    http://beforeitsnews.com/obama-birthplace-controversy/2015/08/to-fbiinterpol-list-of-assassinations-of-nancy-r-owens-medellin-cartel-partial-2492612.html

    Dear Mr. FBI man…

    It’s okay, most of us here realize Nancy didn’t really kill all those people, but, since she admits she does, I for one wouldn’t mind if you could place her in a mental facility where she really belongs. Thanks for your consideration in this matter.

  79. avatar
    bgansel9 August 17, 2015 at 6:06 pm #

    The Magic M (not logged in): I would include Trump who was born in Jamaica according to an internet image of his purported short form BC.

    I have a nephew who was born in Rome. (Both Rome and Jamaica are in New York).

  80. avatar
    y_p_w August 17, 2015 at 6:40 pm #

    bgansel9:
    I haven’t read the thread to see if anyone else has addressed this yet, but, Doc… have you seen this?

    http://www.examiner.com/article/ted-cruz-must-show-naturalization-papers-to-keep-his-us-senate-seat

    I went to the SCRIBD link on that article and I don’t see where Cruz’s mother renounced her U.S. Citizenship. Looks like total BS to me. Opinions?

    Man, I almost forgot that there was this “hyperlocal” series of examiner.com portals. I sort of lost track after the San Francisco Examiner was sold to an investment group and stopped with the extreme right-wing bent.

  81. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 17, 2015 at 6:48 pm #

    My first opinion is that most of those commenters arrogantly display their utter and complete ignorance of nationality law (with exceptions such as Mr. Moran).

    I do not see anything in the timeline that points to any evidence that Cruz’ mother eve became a Canadian citizen. The father said that he had become a Canadian citizen, and there is a puff of smoke and somehow his mother did too.

    bgansel9: I went to the SCRIBD link on that article and I don’t see where Cruz’s mother renounced her U.S. Citizenship. Looks like total BS to me. Opinions?

  82. avatar
    Crustacean August 17, 2015 at 7:11 pm #

    Taking bets now on what California will run out of first: water or security paper.

    SACRAMENTO — A particular security-enabled paper used to print all vital records in California is in short supply after the Ohio business that produced it suddenly closed, forcing some counties to ration the number of birth and death certificates people can buy.

    http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Counties-scramble-to-produce-records-amid-6447773.php

  83. avatar
    RanTalbott August 17, 2015 at 7:33 pm #

    If at first you don’t succeed, try, try the same thing again, and hope for a different result 😉

    The WOBC folks, having failed with Congress, and failed with every sheriff and state AG in the country, have now launched “Operation Failedixed Bayonet”, wherein they try to get locals in every county to ask their grand jury to join the snipe hunt.

    There’s modest excitement among the gerbils. One suggested a massive littering airdropped leaflet campaign as an alternative.

    Sharon Rondeau once again demonstrates her talent for making a description of Armageddon sound like a fishing story you’ve heard from your semi-senile uncle at 17 consecutive Thanksgiving dinners.

  84. avatar
    bgansel9 August 17, 2015 at 8:01 pm #

    Dr. Conspiracy: The father said that he had become a Canadian citizen, and there is a puff of smoke and somehow his mother did too.

    Exactly. That’s what I noticed also.

  85. avatar
    y_p_w August 17, 2015 at 8:05 pm #

    Crustacean:
    Taking bets now on what California will run out of first: water or security paper.

    SACRAMENTO — A particular security-enabled paper used to print all vital records in California is in short supply after the Ohio business that produced it suddenly closed, forcing some counties to ration the number of birth and death certificates people can buy.

    http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Counties-scramble-to-produce-records-amid-6447773.php

    I’ve got several different California vital documents. The names I’ve seen on them (some even differ from the same office) include Midwest Bank Note (since acquired by Colonial Bank Note), Pacific Bancnote, and American Bank Note. All three have websites up and running. Maybe they’re not updated, some have exited the business, and/or there’s been consolidation? It just doesn’t sound likely.

    http://pacificbancnote.com
    http://www.colonialbanknote.com
    http://www.abnote.com/products-and-services/secure-documents/vital-records

    Google does state that Colonial Bank Note is “Permanently Closed”.

    https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=colonial+banknote

  86. avatar
    y_p_w August 17, 2015 at 8:22 pm #

    Here’s other articles on the vital records security paper situation:

    http://www.modbee.com/news/article30965163.html

    Some counties in California have run out of “secure bank note paper” after their sole supplier, Sekuworks LLC of Ohio, suddenly closed in July. California is among states that adopted the “intaglio” method for printing certified copies of birth, death and marriage certificates. The states use paper with printed security features to prevent counterfeiting of vital records.

    Lundrigan said there are not many printing plants in the world equipped for intaglio printing, and several have closed or gone away from it recently. Officials are arranging for a company in Canada to supply the security paper to counties in California. Changes could be coming for the state’s printing requirements.

    I suppose there’s the possibility that previous suppliers decided it wasn’t worth it any more. The Pacific Bancnote website specifically shows an image of a California vital records form.
    http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/08/01/california-faces-shortage-of-paper-for-birth-death-marriage-certificates/
    http://www.wlwt.com/news/harrison-companys-closure-causes-paper-problems-for-some-states/34524796
    http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20150803/PC16/150809803/1177/state-rationing-of-death-certificates-creates-a-challenge-for-grieving-sc-families
    http://www.recordnet.com/article/20150802/NEWS/150809967
    http://www.ocregister.com/articles/paper-676389-county-cabrera.html

  87. avatar
    Benji Franklin August 18, 2015 at 1:16 am #

    RanTalbott: The WOBC folks, having failed with Congress, and failed with every sheriff and state AG in the country, have now launched “Operation Failedixed Bayonet”, wherein they try to get locals in every county to ask their grand jury to join the snipe hunt.

    Karl Gall Oops!:”On the phone with us today, failed former Obama lawsuit bringer, Blare Silly Bee, to tell us about his new initiative aiming at overturning the Obama Presidency within minutes! Go ahead, Blare!”

    Blare Silly Bee:”Yes, Karl, well it’s not my idea, credit where credit is due, Mike Violin and a million monkeys randomly pressing keys on typewriters both came up with this idea simultaneously. What it is, and we’ve done this in one place already, is we are hand-delivering a Sheriff’s Kit, some hate literature about Obama and HIS KIND, and our own UNOFFICIAL interpretation of the Constitution, to EVERY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CROSSING GUARD in the Western Hemisphere, and asking them to honor and protect the Constitution AS WE UNIQUELY interpret it, by impaneling a grand jury, right there in the street, and having that Grand Jury find this uppity black man ‘INELIGIBLE TO THE PRESIDENCY’ or even just ‘GUILTY’ of ANY hanging offense!”

    Karl Gall Oops!:”WOW! WOW! WOW! Fantastic idea there, Blare! Any success yet?”

    Blare Silly Bee:”You bet! You betcha! You betcha! At long last, Karl ……well, no. And we got the message out. 489, 344 kids checked with their county officials, and were told officially, no grand journey because there’s no evidence, including in the Sheriff’d Kit, of any prosecutable crime! I tell you, it just goes to show that the EXTENT of the conspiracy to protect Obama from accountability here is mind-boggling! Who intimidated almost a half-million young people into accepting the official interpretation of the Constitution? I feel sorry for these kids, and not just because now we need to see them hanged for treason.”

    Karl Gall Oops!:”Wow! Wow! Wow! This REALLY IS braking news! Buttttttttttttttttttttttttt, gotta go! See you everybody!”

  88. avatar
    Lupin August 18, 2015 at 3:46 am #

    As I predicted a few years ago, the birther seed has now grown into a full-blown attack against the concept of jus soli citizenship:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/a-good-chunk-of-gop-field-wants-to-repeal-the-14th-amendment_55d24915e4b055a6dab12015

  89. avatar
    Lupin August 18, 2015 at 3:48 am #

    May I add that once again Trump plays the role of an electoral roach motel.

  90. avatar
    The Magic M (not logged in) August 18, 2015 at 4:10 am #

    Lupin: the birther seed has now grown into a full-blown attack against the concept of jus soli citizenship

    Of developed countries other than the United States, only Canada has birthright citizenship.” => There goes American exceptionalism. “Nobody else is doing it, why should we?”

    he said he didn’t “think the 14th Amendment was meant to apply to illegal aliens.”” => There goes “the Founders were infallible gods”.

    I think the most bigoted part is how Conservatives are quick to call everyone who disagrees with the Constitution “un-American” or even a traitor, yet want to change the Constitution every time they disagree with a SCOTUS ruling or a cultural development.
    (Not to mention that the whole “Mexicans/Chinese/Muslims will breed us out of existence” claim is the worst fascist crap imaginable. You hear it all the time from German Nazis.)

  91. avatar
    Keith August 18, 2015 at 4:17 am #

    Lupin:
    As I predicted a few years ago, the birther seed has now grown into a full-blown attack against the concept of jus soli citizenship:

    We are in violent agreement on this since even before a few years ago.

  92. avatar
    Keith August 18, 2015 at 4:20 am #

    Doc, I figured out my password and don’t need help logging in anymore (until the next time).

    But, your CAPTCHA verification system was broken yesterday and probably still is.

  93. avatar
    Lupin August 18, 2015 at 8:19 am #

    The Magic M (not logged in): “Of developed countries other than the United States, only Canada has birthright citizenship.” => There goes American exceptionalism. “Nobody else is doing it, why should we?”

    FWIW here is how it works in France for children born in France to foreign parents.

    Such a child may acquire French citizenship:
    * automatically at birth, if stateless.
    * at age 18, if resident in France with at least 5 years’ residence since age 11.
    * between ages 16 and 18 upon request by the child and if resident in France with at least 5 years’ residence since age 11.
    * between ages 13 and 16 upon request by the child’s parents and if resident in France continuously since age 8.

    A 1993 Law required children born in France of foreign parents to actually request French nationality at adulthood, rather than being automatically accorded citizenship but this was subsequently abrogated by another law in 1998.

    Children born in France to tourists or short-term visitors do not acquire French citizenship by virtue of birth in France: residency must be proven. Since immigration has become increasingly a political theme, our various governments (both left and right-wing) have tried to tighten the process.

    An amusing anecdote A little known 1961 law enabled people from former French territories to apply for immediate naturalization, bypassing the normal five-year residency requirement.

    Someone jokingly suggested that Bill Clinton having been born in Arkansas (which had been part of French Louisiana) would qualify to become a French citizen. (Shades of Madison!) Sarkozy must not have been amused (or fearing the competition>? :-)) because he had that provision repealed in 2006 when he was Minister of the Interior.

    So it goes.

  94. avatar
    RanTalbott August 18, 2015 at 9:08 am #

    Lupin: As I predicted a few years ago, the birther seed has now grown into a full-blown attack against the concept of jus soli citizenship:

    By the birthers, perhaps, but their attacks have proven about as effective as those of a newly-hatched constrictor snake.

    The politicians are doing some posturing to generate soundbites, but Trump and Walker have shown that they have no clue what they’re talking about. Walker said he wanted to eliminate birthright citizenship because “we have to enforce the law”. It’s like he thinks it came about because some bureaucrat wrote a policy that can be reversed with an executive order.

    Unless we have another mass-psychosis-inducing event like 9/11, the grown-ups should keep them in check. If it doesn’t die of a Senate filibuster, the required amendment will fail to get enough states to ratify it.

  95. avatar
    Rickey August 18, 2015 at 1:36 pm #

    RanTalbott:

    The politicians are doing some posturing to generate soundbites, but Trump and Walker have shown that they have no clue what they’re talking about.

    Agreed, but that hasn’t kept Trump from taking a commanding lead in the polls for the Republican nomination

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/18/politics/donald-trump-presidential-poll-debate/index.html

    Interestingly, although 24% of Republicans say that they support Trump, his unfavorable rating among all Americans is 59%.

  96. avatar
    bgansel9 August 18, 2015 at 7:16 pm #

    Rickey: his unfavorable rating among all Americans is 59%.

    And yet… he’s going to get the Hispanic vote and the Black vote and the “wimmens” vote…. Yeah, right! Next he tells us that he’s going to get the GLBT vote. 😛

  97. avatar
    Pete August 18, 2015 at 7:33 pm #

    Trump won’t get the nomination. If he does, he won’t win.

    It’s probably be Jeb Bush or Scott Walker who gets the nomination.

  98. avatar
    Notorial Dissent August 18, 2015 at 11:20 pm #

    Right now I’m leaning towards a Bush Walker ticket as they seem to be bland of the bland right now, unless the also ran from last election decides to try for a repeat of his last performance. Then probably him and Bush as VP.

  99. avatar
    RanTalbott August 19, 2015 at 12:51 am #

    Rickey: but that hasn’t kept Trump from taking a commanding lead in the polls

    There’s no such thing as a “commanding lead” at this point: the last few people who had that kind of lead (Perry, Bachmann, Giuliani, and Cain) were all completely out before Super Tuesday.

    We’re at the “swimsuit” phase of this beauty pageant, and only the hardest-core political junkies are paying serious attention to anything other than the superficial. Unlike a real beauty pageant, though, 90% of the final score is going to be based on the “talent” competition. Or would be, in a typical campaign. The mood of the GOP this time seems to emphasizing appearance over the substance of ability to get elected and govern. So the weighting of the “talent” score may well go down. But probably not enough to let Trump slip through.

    I like the analysis by Maddow I posted the other day: Trump won’t crash the same way the others I mentioned above did, because
    a. he’s not financially dependent on making a strong showing in the early voting, and
    b. his appeal isn’t based as purely on novelty.

    He’s tapped a deep vein of dissatisfaction that will carry him farther that those others got. But almost certainly not all the way to the nomination. He’ll crash when the primary voters have to confront the fact that he’d be a terrible president.

  100. avatar
    Pete August 19, 2015 at 1:59 am #

    I think some of the people supporting him are doing so just to express their dissatisfaction with the status quo and business as usual. It’s not because they actually want him to be President or think he’d do anything other than screw everything up.

    When the rubber meets the road, they’ll dump Trump and switch to someone who isn’t a goofball.

  101. avatar
    Rickey August 19, 2015 at 2:10 am #

    RanTalbott: There’s no such thing as a “commanding lead” at this point: the last few people who had that kind of lead (Perry, Bachmann, Giuliani, and Cain) were all completely out before Super Tuesday.

    The difference is that in 2011 it was essentially a seven-person race. Polling at 24% isn’t nearly as impressive in a field of seven as polling at 24% in a field of seventeen.

    I’m not saying that Trump won’t crash and burn. But he is defying expectations.

  102. avatar
    Dave B. August 19, 2015 at 2:48 am #

    Okay, then there’s the latest on Phil Berg:
    http://www.phillymag.com/news/2015/08/18/obama-birther-philip-berg-uberx/

  103. avatar
    donna August 19, 2015 at 9:33 am #

    Larry Klayman: 1776-Style Revolution Coming If Conservatives Don’t Win 2016 Election

    Last week, a U.S. Appeals Court unanimously rejected a lawsuit brought by right-wing legal activist Larry Klayman on behalf of Sheriff Joe Arpaio challenging the Obama administration’s executive actions on immigration.

    Klayman used his weekly WorldNetDaily column on Friday to declare that he is now taking his battle to the Supreme Court, hoping that the court “will stand up against growing tyranny.”

    “Our country is dying, most Americans are feeling and fearing,” Klayman claimed, writing that those who feel that way are beginning “to flock to Donald Trump and other anti-establishment presidential candidates.”

    “Tomorrow, if real, honest, non-establishment leaders fail to get elected, such as a president who can arrest the downward spiral of the nation, revolution will break out as it did in 1776,” he wrote. “All political persuasions in this country have had it, and the judicial, legislative and executive establishment will figuratively be taken to the guillotines.”

    http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/larry-klayman-1776-style-revolution-coming-if-conservatives-dont-win-2016-election

    Notorious Obama Birther Philip Berg Now Driving UberX in Philly

    http://www.phillymag.com/news/2015/08/18/obama-birther-philip-berg-uberx/

    Trump Defends Mass Deportation Vow: ‘I’ll Test 14th Amendment in Court’

    http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/08/18/donald-trump-illegal-immigration-plan-we-have-start-building-big-beautiful-powerful-wall

    I think Trump’s “[m]any lawyers” who agree with him might be Klayman & Berg. O’reilly told Trump to file a federal lawsuit “now” ….. “tomorrow”.

    WSJ: The last time Republicans tried this, in the 1920s, they alienated immigrant groups like the Irish and Italians for decades until Ronald Reagan won them back. If they want to lose in 2016, they’ll follow Mr. Trump’s anti-immigrant siren.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-deportation-party-1439853705

  104. avatar
    Punchmaster via Mobile August 19, 2015 at 9:45 am #

    Larry Klayman can go eat a gun.

  105. avatar
    Notorial Dissent August 19, 2015 at 9:46 am #

    It is beginning to sound like the GOP whether they go with La Rump or not is trying to adopt many of his more outlandish policies, the further out the better.

  106. avatar
    Arthur August 19, 2015 at 11:01 am #

    Punchmaster via Mobile:
    Larry Klayman can go eat a gun.

    Not before he sits on it.

  107. avatar
    The Magic M (not logged in) August 19, 2015 at 12:13 pm #

    donna: Larry Klayman: 1776-Style Revolution Coming If Conservatives Don’t Win 2016 Election

    Or, failing that, if they don’t win the 2018 election, or if the Cubs don’t win the World Series in 2024, or if the first transgender candidate is on the ballot in 2028, or if KKKlayman becomes the first human to be transfered into a computer, or if Hell freezes over. In other words, any day now.

  108. avatar
    bgansel9 August 19, 2015 at 12:28 pm #

    Pete: Trump won’t get the nomination. If he does, he won’t win.

    Well, I for one would LOVE to see him carry out his thread of running as an Independent if he doesn’t get the nomination (of course, I’m rather looking forward to a Republican party split – LOL) 😛

  109. avatar
    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater August 19, 2015 at 12:36 pm #

    Dr. Conspiracy: (with exceptions such as Mr. Moran).

    *waves* hey doc that’s me

  110. avatar
    donna August 19, 2015 at 1:03 pm #

    Trump and Scott Walker want to repeal birthright citizenship. It’s nearly impossible.

    …… there are probably only two ways that the practice could be overturned.

    The first would be to somehow persuade the Supreme Court to overturn the 1898 ruling, United States v. Wong Kim Ark, which established how the 14th Amendment would be enforced. The first clause in the amendment states that “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside.”

    Ratified in 1868, the clause was meant to ensure that freed slaves were considered American citizens. Wong was born in San Francisco to Chinese parents, which the court ruled was sufficient to make him a citizen.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/18/donald-trump-and-scott-walker-want-to-repeal-birthright-citizenship-its-nearly-impossible/

  111. avatar
    Arthur B. August 19, 2015 at 2:02 pm #

    Pete:

    When the rubber meets the road, they’ll dump Trump and switch to someone who isn’t a goofball.

    I agree that they’ll dump Trump. But that they’ll choose a non-goofball — I’ve got serious doubts.

  112. avatar
    Rickey August 19, 2015 at 3:14 pm #

    An article on birtherism at Talking Points Memo.

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/birtherism-gop-candidates-home-to-roost

  113. avatar
    Rickey August 19, 2015 at 3:31 pm #

    donna:

    Klayman used his weekly WorldNetDaily column on Friday to declare that he is now taking his battle to the Supreme Court, hoping that the court “will stand up against growing tyranny.”

    By my count Klayman is 0-8 on appeals which he has filed with the Supreme Court.

  114. avatar
    RanTalbott August 19, 2015 at 4:31 pm #

    Rickey: By my count Klayman is 0-8 on appeals which he has filed with the Supreme Court.

    Yeah, but you’re counting grants of cert and favorable decisions: Klayman is counting checks, and clicks of the Paypal button. So, by his criteria, he’s “winning big”.

  115. avatar
    Dave B. August 19, 2015 at 10:14 pm #

    Jack Cashill’s got an article over at the WorldNet Daily about how awful people over at TPM say nasty things about birthers. Doc, wasn’t it commenting on one of his articles that got us booted from ever saying anything at all at WND? –Although I think it was talking about Zullo that got us the nacht und nebel treatment.

  116. avatar
    gorefan August 19, 2015 at 10:32 pm #

    Arthur B.: I agree that they’ll dump Trump. But that they’ll choose a non-goofball — I’ve got serious doubts.

    One of these?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=281&v=ufGlBv8Z3NU

  117. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 19, 2015 at 11:47 pm #

    I think that what got me banned was my comment about Aaron Klien’s radio show where he said that he and WND hired 3 forensic document examiners that said the birth certificate didn’t look like a forgery.

    Dave B.: Although I think it was talking about Zullo that got us the nacht und nebel treatment.

  118. avatar
    Dave B. August 20, 2015 at 12:06 am #

    Could be. I remember, though, that one of the birthers kept running Zullo up the flagpole, and it was mostly you and me that were shooting facts at him. He got banned, and then we did. I kind of made that connection– it looked like they didn’t want that dog getting kicked.

    Dr. Conspiracy:
    I think that what got me banned was my comment about Aaron Klien’s radio show where he said that he and WND hired 3 forensic document examiners that said the birth certificate didn’t look like a forgery.

  119. avatar
    Keith August 20, 2015 at 3:04 am #

    donna: Ratified in 1868, the clause was meant to ensure that freed slaves were considered American citizens.

    That is not quite correct, though the freed slaves were the obvious first beneficiaries.

    In actual fact, the clause in question was meant to overturn Scott v Sandford (the Dred Scott decision) in order to codify the pre-Dred Scott understanding of birthright
    citizenship in the United States.

    In no way does the 14th Amendment cast a restriction on the people to whom it is meant to apply. It specifically says “ALL PERSONS born…in the United States… are citizens…”. It does not say “Former Slaves and their descendants are citizens…”. It does not say “All persons born except Mexicans and Asians and Central Americans”.

    If I recall correctly, during the debate the specific question was asked: “Does this mean that an Asian born here could be President?” and was answered in the affirmative. There was no further counter argument against it. (I could be mistaking that for some other debate, I just don’t have time to look it up right now).

    Clearly, the former slaves were that part of the Amendment’s first and primary beneficiary, and it was certainly inspired by the state of the law after the Dred Scott decision (which, if left intact, would certainly have been used against more that just former slaves). Even at the time, the Dred Scott decision was seen as probably the most dreadful legal error in the history of America, and one that, since it was from the SCOTUS could not be overturned by appeal or mere law. The first clause of the 14th Amendment was meant specifically to overturn that horrible decision.

    Other parts of the 14th Amendment, especially the ‘due process/ privileges and immunities’ clause corrected other ‘deficiencies’ in the Constitution that historical rulings had exposed as unreasonable. The ‘due process’ clause basically overturns Barron v Baltimore and thus extends the protections and restrictions of the Bill of Rights to the State Governments as well as the Federal Government. This part of the 14th has nothing to do with former slaves at all.

    The idea of overturning the 14th Amendment, in vogue amongst some ‘thinkers’ of the conservative movement may have more to do with overturning the due process clause than the birthright citizenship clause.

    Think about that: the Obama birther gumph as a stalking horse for stripping birthright citizenship, and stripping birthright citizenship as a stalking horse for removing the Bill of Rights restrictions on the States. Keep your attention on the immediate invented outrages that are thrown up as smokescreens and you might just miss the long game that is being played.

  120. avatar
    bovril August 20, 2015 at 3:35 am #

    Keith

    The “Can an Asian be President” statement came from the dissent written by the Chief Justice in the WKA case

    “Considering the circumstances surrounding the framing of the Constitution, I submit that it is unreasonable to conclude that “natural-born citizen” applied to everybody born within the geographical tract known as the United States, irrespective of circumstances, and that the children of foreigners, happening to be born to them while passing through the country, whether of royal parentage or not, or whether of the Mongolian, Malay or other race, were eligible to the Presidency, while children of our citizens, born abroad, were not.”

  121. avatar
    The Magic M (not logged in) August 20, 2015 at 4:28 am #

    donna: The first would be to somehow persuade the Supreme Court to overturn the 1898 ruling, United States v. Wong Kim Ark, which established how the 14th Amendment would be enforced. The first clause in the amendment states that “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside.”

    After the shenanigans in King vs. Burwell and other cases, I have no doubt that at least 4 conservative SCOTUS judges will claim the 14th does not say what it says on its face. (In a sane world, a challenge to the meaning of “all persons” would fail 9-0.)
    I bet Scalia would love to cite his own “applesauce” dissent and claim that “since the court has abandoned literal reading of the law in King, I don’t see how it could now claim the literal meaning is what should always count”.
    Not even an originalist view could in good conscience argue how “all persons” should not mean “all persons”.
    (I’m eeriely reminded of the 1930’s when the Nazi party took the rights of Jewish citizens away by inventing a second type of citizenship, “citizen of the Reich”, next to the existing “citizen of the state”. Jews were ineligible for that new citizenship which was then endowed with more rights. Trying to claim “all persons” in the 14th only applies to a certain class of persons is the first step to claiming equal protection is also not a right of “all persons”. What next, the Founders never envisioned a religion with a small radical minority would come to the US and therefore “all persons” does not include Muslims? Add that to the RW’s adoration of Trump the demagogue and you have an almost exact copy of Germany 1933. The only thing that is saving you right now is that the economy is strong.)

  122. avatar
    Lupin August 20, 2015 at 5:36 am #

    The Lunatic Right Wing deep thinkers have found a new way around the 14th amendment.

    Slavery.

    I kid you not:

    http://mediamatters.org/blog/2015/08/19/ia-radio-host-jan-mickelson-enslave-undocumente/205020

    Or to quote Wallace Shawn in that MURPHY BROWN episode: “slavery is such an ugly word.” What was once sitcom fodder is now political thought an inch from being endorsed by the leading candidate from one of your two major political parties.

  123. avatar
    Keith August 20, 2015 at 6:40 am #

    bovril: The “Can an Asian be President” statement came from the dissent written by the Chief Justice in the WKA case

    Thanks for the correction.

  124. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 20, 2015 at 8:35 am #

    Sharks circling around Arpaio. Massive new article at Phoenix New Times

    http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/sheriff-joe-arpaios-enemies-are-closer-than-ever-to-taking-him-down-7575718

  125. avatar
    Northland10 August 20, 2015 at 9:03 am #

    Keith: If I recall correctly, during the debate the specific question was asked: “Does this mean that an Asian born here could be President?” and was answered in the affirmative. There was no further counter argument against it. (I could be mistaking that for some other debate, I just don’t have time to look it up right now).

    As always, Ballantine saves the day

    “The proposition before us, I will say, Mr. President, relates simply in that respect to the children begotten of Chinese parents in California, and it is proposed to declare that they shall be citizens. We have declared that by law [the Civil Rights Act]; now it is proposed to incorporate the same provision in the fundamental instrument of the nation. I am in favor of doing so. I voted for the proposition to declare that the children of all parentage whatever, born in California, should be regarded and treated as citizens of the United States, entitled to equal civil rights with other citizens of the United States. Senator Conness, Cong. Globe, 39th Cong. 1st Sess. 2890 (1866)

    For more:

    http://naturalborncitizenshipresearch.blogspot.com/

  126. avatar
    Dr. Conspiracy August 20, 2015 at 10:05 am #

    The next generation of birthers:

    http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/the-next-generation-birthers

  127. avatar
    Punchmaster via Mobile August 20, 2015 at 10:05 am #

    Dr. Conspiracy:
    Sharks circling around Arpaio. Massive new article at Phoenix New Times

    http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/sheriff-joe-arpaios-enemies-are-closer-than-ever-to-taking-him-down-7575718

    I can almost hear a certain announcer exclaiming “Finish Him!”

  128. avatar
    Crustacean August 20, 2015 at 5:41 pm #

    I received an e-mail this morning from a wonderful friend I’ve known since grade school. I asked his permission to share it here (also invited him to join the OCT party; I hope he does):

    “It seems a conservative Iowa radio host (who’s interviewed a number of the GOP candidates already), thinks not only the 14th amendment needs to go, but the 13th as well, asking during his show: “What’s wrong with slavery?”

    “Pure genius! If the non-Trump GOP candidates want to even the odds by leap-frogging Trump with the base, they need to get on this right away and adopt that as their campaign slogan. I figure it can be incorporated into a nifty campaign jingle, to be sung to the tune of “Up with people.” ”

    What’s wrong with slavery?
    Enslave ’em wherever you go!
    What’s wrong with slavery?
    They’re the best brown people I know!
    If white people owned the right people
    (brown people everywhere)
    There’d be a lot less people to worry about
    And enough for us to have a spare!

    Heheh, he hasn’t changed a bit… 🙂

    Lupin: The Lunatic Right Wing deep thinkers have found a new way around the 14th amendment.
    Slavery.
    I kid you not:
    http://mediamatters.org/blog/2015/08/19/ia-radio-host-jan-mickelson-enslave-undocumente/205020

  129. avatar
    Tom Brown August 20, 2015 at 7:02 pm #

    Hi Lupin, I’m the friend Crustacean was referring to. Slavery would take care of the 13th amendment too if I’m not mistaken. But why stop there?

    “I’ll see your 13th amendment and raise you a bill of rights!”

  130. avatar
    Keith August 20, 2015 at 7:13 pm #

    Northland10: As always, Ballantine saves the day

    For more:

    http://naturalborncitizenshipresearch.blogspot.com/

    And thanks for the correction to the correction!!!

  131. avatar
    Tom Brown August 20, 2015 at 9:21 pm #

    It might be time for the WSJ to stop resisting and get on board the Trump/Mickelson bandwagon so they’re not out of step with the base. Perhaps if approached the right way, they might publish an op ed which is respectful of their neo liberal sentiments. I think I could take a crack at writing one… I’d entitle it

    “A modest proposal: It’s time for white America to step up and take ownership of the illegal immigrant problem. Literally.”

  132. avatar
    Dave August 20, 2015 at 10:20 pm #

    Just ran into an interesting article about Trump’s candidacy at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: What to do with the Donald?.

    In it, they coin the term “un-nominatable frontrunner.”

  133. avatar
    Arthur B. August 20, 2015 at 10:57 pm #

    Dave:
    Just ran into an interesting article about Trump’s candidacy at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: What to do with the Donald?.

    In it, they coin the term “un-nominatable frontrunner.”

    It’s one more example of how Trump seems to outpace all the wishful thinking about his fall.

    In Sabato’s article, he predicts optimistically that “Iowa and New Hampshire, in particular, are not won by sound bites and celebrity coverage.”

    But that article is a week old. Today, the Boston Globe reports that “[p]olls show Trump leading the Republican field nationally as well as in the early presidential nominating states of Iowa and New Hampshire.”

  134. avatar
    Dave B. August 20, 2015 at 11:28 pm #

    Now this kind of reminds me of how all the fun goes out of flirting when one party decides to take it serious.

    Arthur B.: It’s one more example of how Trump seems to outpace all the wishful thinking about his fall.

    In Sabato’s article, he predicts optimistically that “Iowa and New Hampshire, in particular, are not won by sound bites and celebrity coverage.”

    But that article is a week old. Today, the Boston Globe reports that “[p]olls show Trump leading the Republican field nationally as well as in the early presidential nominating states of Iowa and New Hampshire.”