Waiting for the other shoe to drop

Things are sort of quiet on the birther front and I’m waiting for something interesting to happen. There are a couple of dropping shoes that I’m waiting for.

First is some development in the Arpaio/Montgomery story. We learned that Sheriff Joe Arpaio has been spending 6 figures on information from a notorious scammer about federal judge G. Murray Snow and US Attorney General Eric Holder. This is apparently some offshoot of the Cold Case Posse investigation of Obama’s birth certificate. I and commenters here have posted their speculations. What I’m waiting for is a public response from the Sheriff’s Office or from another media article confirming or expanding the story.

The second shoe belongs to Reed Hayes. It’s no accident that my article about Google queries featured the keyword reedwrite.com–it came from my Google alerts. There was a strong indication a while back that Hayes was going to post something on his web site related to his examination for Mike Zullo of a second or third-generation copy1 of the Obama birth certificate. What I once, but no longer strongly suspect is that poster Joe Mannix at Birther Report is Mike Zullo and that what he said about the Reed Hayes report is authoritative:

Of course. Reed is a master at detecting forgeries, especially when people try to mimic other peoples signatures on such things such as checks or birth certificates as in this case. He detects anomalies in forged signatures the average person can’t recognize. He immediately knew something was wrong after looking at the document hence why he called Mike back within 20 minutes.

That’s about all we know, and “know” is even too strong a word. It would be great for the other shoe to drop and we learn from Hayes himself what he thinks about how his work has been characterized. We remember that Ivan Zatkovich eventually spoke out against how his work had been buried and mischaracterized by WorldNetDaily.


1I consider the White House PDF to be a digitally compressed second-generation copy. The birth certificate itself is a photocopy of the original onto security paper. Scanning to PDF and display on a computer monitor, or printer gives the second generation.  (Considerable confusion has arisen from the complex digital compression involved in the creation of the PDF). The AP press scan is from photocopy (or perhaps a photocopy of a photocopy) of the certified copy, then imaged and displayed making it the third (or fourth) generation.

About Dr. Conspiracy

I'm not a real doctor, but I have a master's degree.
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55 Responses to Waiting for the other shoe to drop

  1. gorefan says:

    I disagree with Mannix, Hayes may have concluded the signatures were also forgeries but in his conclusions he is reported to have written,

    “…based on my observations and findings, it is clear that Certificate of Live Birth I examined is not a scan of an original paper birth certificate, but a digitally manufactured documented created by utilizing material from various sources.”

    and

    “In over 20 years of examining documentation of various types, I have never seen a document that is so seriously questionable in so many respects. In my opinion, the birth certificate is entirely fabricated.”

    It sounds like he is describing more than the just the two signatures.

  2. A point.

    gorefan: It sounds like he is describing more than the just the two signatures.

  3. CarlOrcas says:

    Something to note is that the New Times is a weekly and they don’t often break the cycle unless it is really a big story which they have to get on their website.

    My guess, and that’s all it is, is that Lemons will have a followup in his column this week.

    This is a complicated story and most media don’t like following up on someone else’s complicated story until it gets a lot simpler. I suspect, and that’s all it is, that a couple of other reporters in Phoenix – print and broadcast – are probably trying to followup on the story with their sources to see if they can develop something independently.

  4. HistorianDude says:

    The AP image (a photograph actually, not a scan) is most likely a fourth generation image. The original was photocopied onto security paper to create the 1st generation image.

    But rather than simply copying the certified copy directly to make the press packets, an admin would have more likely made a copy for inclusion in a master handout packet (the 2nd generation image) with other documents, which was then replicated using the auto collate function of a copier to create the paper copies handed out to the press (the 3rd generation copies).

    One of those was then photographed (using a handheld camera) to create the AP JPEG we know so well (a 4th generation copy).

  5. Rickey says:

    gorefan:

    It sounds like he is describing more than the just the two signatures.

    Agreed, although actually there are three signatures:

    Stanley Ann Dunham Obama
    David A Sinclair
    Verna K. Lee (hers looks liked “V K R Lee” to me)

    I’m not sure how Reed Hayes could have concluded that any of the three signatures is a forgery without having a verified legitimate signature to compare it with (Sinclair’s family has confirmed that the signature is his). And as you have pointed out, the small portion of Hayes’ report which has been released says nothing about forged signatures.

  6. It’s been almost a year since we’ve known of the existence of the Reed Hayes report. I understand birthers are gullible, but I’m surprised that I still don’t see any calls for Zullo to release the report from the birther faithful.

    The only people who have something to hide yadda yadda yadda and all.

  7. JPotter says:

    sactosintolerant: It’s been almost a year since we’ve known of the existence of the Reed Hayes report.

    I would have sworn it was longer, but you’re right. They started pimping Hayes a year ago this week.

    http://www.obamaconspiracy.org/2013/06/reed-hayes-expert-enigma/

  8. Andrew Morris says:

    Is there was video of Obama’s birth taken by Billy Graham with Roy Moore as midwife, the Birthers still wouldn’t believe it

  9. gorefan says:

    HistorianDude:
    The AP image (a photograph actually, not a scan) is most likely a fourth generation image. The original was photocopied onto security paper to create the 1st generation image.

    But rather than simply copying the certified copy directly to make the press packets, an admin would have more likely made a copy for inclusion in a master handout packet (the 2nd generation image) with other documents, which was then replicated using the auto collate function of a copier to create the paper copies handed out to the press (the 3rd generation copies).

    One of those was then photographed (using a handheld camera) to create the AP JPEG we know so well (a 4th generation copy).

    And that was turned into another PDF.

    http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/ap_obama_certificate_dm_110427.pdf

  10. Andrew Vrba, PmG says:

    Andrew Morris:
    Is there was video of Obama’s birth taken by Billy Graham with Roy Moore as midwife, the Birthers still wouldn’t believe it

    Shot in HD no less!

  11. RanTalbott says:

    gorefan: And that was turned into another PDF.

    The JPEG in the PDF is higher resolution than the one published “standalone” on the web.

    It’s also lower resolution than the one that Vogt and Irey bought and published as part of their not-a-lawsuit.

    My conclusion is that AP sold Vogt a copy of the original from the digicam, and used publishing tools that further compressed it for the web.

  12. I believe the image Vogt and Irey used was a version of the AP jpeg they found at the KBMT-TV web site. It is still there http://www.12newsnow.com/story/14523440/white-house-releases-president-obamas-birth-certificate. I copied that link from Vogt’s public affidavit. This image is 7 MB as compared with the version Doc has here which is only 2 MB. http://www.obamaconspiracy.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/BirthCertificateHighResolution.jpg

    They both appear to be 4851 x 4047 pixels. I think the Channel 12 image is not as compressed. Maybe someone familiar with interpreting EXIF data can take a look at these and figure it out. Vogt and Irey may have thought it was a better image to use because the file size was larger. I don’t think that it is any better than other versions however.

    RanTalbott: My conclusion is that AP sold Vogt a copy of the original from the digicam, and used publishing tools that further compressed it for the web.

  13. RanTalbott says:

    I may be confusing it with one of the other debacles, but I’m sure I saw mention of a purchase of a photo from AP in somebody’s filings. I think they even included a copy of the receipt.

  14. Dr. Conspiracy: Things are sort of quiet on the birther front and I’m waiting for something interesting to happen.

    Agreed. I’m sure there will be further developments in the Snow/Holder/Montgomery mess, but I can’t figure out what or when. The only thing I’m fairly confident in predicting is that now there never will be a press conference by Arpiehole and the Cold Cream Posse.

    Oh wait, this just in:

    Whatever happens, we won’t learn about it first on Birther Report. As always, we’ll have it first and those birfoons can catch up whenever.

  15. The Channel 12 image is set to 72 PPI (screen resolution) and the one from my site is set at 300 DPI (print resolution). The Channel 12 version has Photoshop CS4 metadata, and mine does not. The difference in size does suggest that one is a lower quality image than the other, but to my eye, there’s no significant difference.

    Unfortunately, fotoforensics.com won’t take an image that big. It will show the compression percentage.

    Reality Check: They both appear to be 4851 x 4047 pixels. I think the Channel 12 image is not as compressed. Maybe someone familiar with interpreting EXIF data can take a look at these and figure it out. Vogt and Irey may have thought it was a better image to use because the file size was larger. I don’t think that it is any better than other versions however.

  16. RanTalbott says:

    From imagemagick’s “identify” command (large amounts of gory detail left out. “ap_pdf-000.jpg” was extracted fromn the AP PDF):

    Image: 14523440_BG1.jpg
    Format: JPEG (Joint Photographic Experts Group JFIF format)
    Class: DirectClass
    Geometry: 4047×4851+0+0
    Resolution: 300×300
    Print size: 13.49×16.17
    Units: PixelsPerInch
    Type: TrueColor
    Endianess: Undefined
    Colorspace: RGB
    Depth: 8-bit

    Filesize: 6.964MiB

    Image: ap_pdf-000.jpg
    Format: JPEG (Joint Photographic Experts Group JFIF format)
    Class: DirectClass
    Geometry: 2698×3234+0+0
    Resolution: 200×200
    Print size: 13.49×16.17
    Units: PixelsPerInch
    Type: TrueColor
    Endianess: Undefined
    Colorspace: RGB
    Depth: 8-bit

    Filesize: 1.015MiB

    Image: AP_0427_obama-certificate.jpg
    Format: JPEG (Joint Photographic Experts Group JFIF format)
    Class: DirectClass
    Geometry: 1000×1199+0+0
    Resolution: 300×300
    Print size: 3.33333×3.99667
    Units: PixelsPerInch
    Type: TrueColor
    Endianess: Undefined
    Colorspace: RGB
    Depth: 8-bit

    exif:Software: Adobe Photoshop Elements 5.0 Windows

    Filesize: 972KiB

  17. Dave says:

    Well, of course we will. Those guys will never figure out which member of the CCP works for us.

    Comrade Fogovich:

    Whatever happens, we won’t learn about it first on Birther Report. As always, we’ll have it first and those birfoons can catch up whenever.

  18. Was that a shoe I heard?

    R.C. announced that Stephen Lemons will be on R.C. Radio this Weds., June 11 to discuss his universe-shattering story.

    http://www.blogtalkradio.com/rcr/2014/06/12/rc-radio-with-stephen-lemons-from-the-phoenix-new-times

  19. Drool.

    Comrade Fogovich: R.C. announced that Stephen Lemons will be on R.C. Radio this Weds., June 11 to discuss his universe-shattering story.

  20. CarlOrcas says:

    Comrade Fogovich:
    Was that a shoe I heard?

    R.C. announced that Stephen Lemons will be on R.C. Radio this Weds., June 11 to discuss his universe-shattering story.

    http://www.blogtalkradio.com/rcr/2014/06/12/rc-radio-with-stephen-lemons-from-the-phoenix-new-times

    Excellent! This should be very interesting.

  21. Andrew Vrba, PmG says:

    Comrade Fogovich:
    Was that a shoe I heard?

    R.C. announced that Stephen Lemons will be on R.C. Radio this Weds., June 11 to discuss his universe-shattering story.

    http://www.blogtalkradio.com/rcr/2014/06/12/rc-radio-with-stephen-lemons-from-the-phoenix-new-times

    HAHAHA!
    This is gonna be good!

  22. john says:

    Maybe the “Universe Shattering” information has been the Bergdahl Swap. While not related to the birth certificate, it is absolutely criminal and almost historic (That the Commander In Chief would trade a suspected deserter for 5 of the world’s deadylist terrorists which could potentially shift the balance of power in the Middle East.) as Gallup has suggested.

  23. Unlikely, as the swap is said to be a very recent decision.

    john: Maybe the “Universe Shattering” information has been the Bergdahl Swap.

  24. Dave says:

    Interesting theory. If so, why is Zullo remaining silent?

    john:
    Maybe the “Universe Shattering” information has been the Bergdahl Swap.

  25. Andrew Vrba, PmG says:

    john:
    Maybe the “Universe Shattering” information has been the Bergdahl Swap.While not related to the birth certificate, it is absolutely criminal and almost historic (That the Commander In Chief would trade a suspected deserter for 5 of the world’s deadylist terrorists which could potentially shift the balance of power in the Middle East.) as Gallup has suggested.

    Well John, before something can be called “Criminal” it has to be tried in an actual court of law, as opposed to the court of public opinion…Sound familiar?
    And there are so many conflicting and unconfirmed reports of what Bergdahl is or isn’t, was or wasn’t, that no one can really form an educated opinion about the particulars.
    The only fact of the matter, at the moment, is that people, probably ones like you, are making Bergdahl and his family’s life a living hell, based on what they think they know.

  26. Suranis says:

    And the silence of Joe Mannix continues.

  27. Suranis says:

    John, its pretty pathetic that you find yourself so desperate to derail a thread that your spelling goes completely out of whack..”Deadylist”? Seriously?

  28. But of course Gallups didn’t know two of the five have been turned, and will be invaluable sources of intelligence in the dismantling of Al Qaeda. The other three have radio activated detonators planted in their skulls, devices that cannot be removed.

    Works for me.

    john: (That the Commander In Chief would trade a suspected deserter for 5 of the world’s deadylist terrorists which could potentially shift the balance of power in the Middle East.

  29. Actually he tried to derail another thread, and I moved the comment here because this is a “nothing is happening” filler article anyway.

    Suranis: John, its pretty pathetic that you find yourself so desperate to derail a thread that your spelling goes completely out of whack..”Deadylist”? Seriously?

  30. J.D. Sue says:

    john: it is absolutely criminal and almost historic (That the Commander In Chief would trade a suspected deserter for 5 of the world’s deadylist terrorists which could potentially shift the balance of power in the Middle East.) as Gallup has suggested.

    —-
    Speaking of risking balance of power in the Middle East, Israel traded 1,027 Palestinian prisoners to get back 1 Israeli soldier held by Hamas. Nobody likes trading prisoners whose hands are stained with the blood of one’s people. But, it is unacceptable to leave a soldier behind.

  31. Benji Franklin says:

    john: Maybe the “Universe Shattering” information has been the Bergdahl Swap. While not related to the birth certificate, it is absolutely criminal and almost historic

    Well, John, I’m glad to see that, just as Zullo tried to do at first, at least YOU, among Birthers, are still just working to prove that the President is innocent of any criminality. God will bless you for trying to do that, perhaps with a second brain cell.

  32. justlw says:

    J.D. Sue: But, it is unacceptable to leave a soldier behind.

    Unless, you know: Obama.

  33. ASK Esq says:

    gorefan: It sounds like he is describing more than the just the two signatures.

    It most certainly does. When Zullo first told the world about Hayes working for the posse, he didn’t point out that his only certification was in handwriting analysis. I guess he thought all document examiners are the same. But Doc and others soon found that the only certification listed for Hayes came from NADE, which only certifies handwriting analysts.

    But something interesting has happened recently. Hayes now has a certification from another group listed on his CV. He gives the date as 2013, but I’m not sure when it first appeared. The group is the Scientific Association of Forensic Examiners. He is even listed as a board member. It is difficult to say exactly what areas SAFE certifies in, as their website, until recently, was virtually blank, and even now it doesn’t give much information about the group. A random check on some of the members listed found only handwriting analysts.

    While I cannot say for certain, of course, to me it seems possible that Hayes created this group so as to make himself appear more qualified, and to deflect some of the anti-birther criticism of his qualifications to pass judgment on the scan.

  34. Bonsall Obot says:

    Sounds like the Rand Paul gambit of self-accreditation.

    An idiot looks like a genius to another idiot.

  35. Suranis says:

    Sounds good to me. Flame on!

    Dr. Conspiracy:
    Actually he tried to derail another thread, and I moved the comment here because this is a “nothing is happening” filler article anyway.

  36. Suranis says:

    AND those people were responsible for the killing of a total of 536 Israelis.

    On onother occasion Netinyahu traded 1500 palestinians for 4 mossad agents.

    The Israeli Prime Minister is a serious Muslim sympathizer, no?

    J.D. Sue: —-
    Speaking of risking balance of power in the Middle East, Israel traded 1,027 Palestinian prisoners to get back 1 Israeli soldier held by Hamas.Nobody likes trading prisoners whose hands are stained with the blood of one’s people.But, it is unacceptable to leave a soldier behind.

  37. The Magic M says:

    john: Maybe the “Universe Shattering” information has been the Bergdahl Swap.

    I wonder why the loons haven’t yet connected it to #Benghaaaaaazi (in their logic it should be a no-brainer, given that they claim a “botched abduction attempt” where the terrorists wanted the ambassador as hostage to exchange for jailed terrorist leaders).

    And lemme guess, Bergdahl was the real Boston marathon bomber who got his guns from Fast & Furious and his captivity in the closed war memorial near Sandy Hook was financed by the IRS.

    Do I win the “highest RWNJ meme density award” now?

  38. The Magic M says:

    Dave: Those guys will never figure out which member of the CCP works for us.

    All of them, of course. 😉

  39. Andrew Vrba, PmG says:

    Suranis:
    Sounds good to me. Flame on!

    http://i.imgur.com/Tdh4g2V.jpg

  40. Daniel says:

    //the Bergdahl Swap. While not related to the birth certificate, it is absolutely criminal and almost historic (That the Commander In Chief would trade a suspected deserter for 5 of the world’s deadylist terrorists//

    John, surely you know that every wartime President has had prisoner exchanges under his watch, right?

    Oh sorry, forgot to whom I was speaking.

    But really John, prisoner exchanges are common and trivial things in wartime. It’s simply business as usual.

    In fact it’s so much a normal part of wartime operations, it’s covered by Geneva Convention (1929), articles 68 to 74, and the Annex.

    It would really help us out a lot, dearest John, if you could please try to take even the most basic steps to learn some basic facts about what you blather on about. I know that no one takes you seriously anyway, but you should at least take some responsibility for your own education.

  41. BillTheCat says:

    john:
    …which could potentially shift the balance of power in the Middle East

    Wow. Just, wow. You really are that thick.

  42. James M says:

    BillTheCat: Wow. Just, wow. You really are that thick.

    Someone in a position to know that the five prisoners under discussion are among “the world’s [deadliest] terrorists] would not be at liberty to discuss such information publicly, with any civilians, and certainly not in a public forum that is read by enemies of the United States.

    But “john” has no such knowledge.

  43. roxy7655 says:

    James M: But “john” has no such knowledge.

    FIFY

  44. Hermitian says:

    HistorianDude: HistorianDude
    June 9, 2014 at 11:57 am HistorianDude(Quote)
    #

    The AP image (a photograph actually, not a scan) is most likely a fourth generation image. The original was photocopied onto security paper to create the 1st generation image.
    But rather than simply copying the certified copy directly to make the press packets, an admin would have more likely made a copy for inclusion in a master handout packet (the 2nd generation image) with other documents, which was then replicated using the auto collate function of a copier to create the paper copies handed out to the press (the 3rd generation copies).
    One of those was then photographed (using a handheld camera) to create the AP JPEG we know so well (a 4th generation copy).

    There are two Blue-background Applewhite images for sale on the AP images website. The larger size image can be obtained from the smaller one by scaling the image size (in inches) by a factor of 1.5. The two images have the same pixel dimensions. The larger page size image is 200 PPI resolution and the smaller is 300 PPI. The pixel dimensions do not correspond to any of the pixel dimensions of any of the available image formats of Applewhite’s Canon EOS 1D Mark IV camera. Also, the aspect ratio of the two AP images is different from the aspect ratio of Applewhite’s DSLR.

    Consequently, your 4th generation copy should be 5th generation. And somewhere buried in the AP archives is the original Applewhite image.

  45. JPotter says:

    BillTheCat: Wow. Just, wow. You really are that thick.

    …. and he’s not alone. Why just last night I caught a campaign commercial for Lankford, one of the nuts vying to replace Coburn as Okieland’s Junior US Senate Nutbag. In the message which he endorsed, he assured me he would continue “fighting against Benghazi” (WTF does that even mean???), and against Obama’s plot to subvert American public education, Common Core.

    Crying in my popcorn.

  46. Hermitian says:

    Dr. Conspiracy: Dr. Conspiracy
    June 9, 2014 at 4:58 pm Dr. Conspiracy(Quote)
    #

    The Channel 12 image is set to 72 PPI (screen resolution) and the one from my site is set at 300 DPI (print resolution). The Channel 12 version has Photoshop CS4 metadata, and mine does not. The difference in size does suggest that one is a lower quality image than the other, but to my eye, there’s no significant difference.

    The Channel 12 image is file “14523440_BG1.jpg”. This image is 13.490 in x 16.170 in @ 300 PPI x 300 PPI. This is the same page size as the ABC News PDF and the smaller AP Blue-background image but is higher resolution (300 PPI x 300 PPI vs 200 PPI x 200 PPI).

    The file “BirthCertificateHighResolution.jpg” is page size 56.208 in. x 67.375 in @ 72 PPI x 72 PPI.

  47. Joey says:

    Conservatives conveniently ignore when President Reagan sold American missiles to the terrorist nation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in exchange for the release of American hostages.

    On April 18, 1983 Iran had funded Islamic Jihad to bomb the American Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, killing 67 people and on October 23, 1983, Iran had funded an Iranian suicide bomber named Ismail Ascari to destroy the U.S. Marine Corps barracks in Beirut, killing 241 U.S. military personnel, 58 French military personnel and 6 civilians.

    “A few months ago i told the American people I did not trade arms for hostages. My heart and my best intentions still tell me that’s true but the facts and the evidence tell me it is not.

    Because you see, I thought that if I gave them the arms after they gave me the hostages, that that was two separate, unrelated interactions. Apparently, it’s not.”
    Reagan’s saying that he still stands by what he said earlier about not trading arms to Iran for terrorists, but the facts are that he did.–President Ronald Reagan, nationally televised address to the nation, March 4, 1987.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ew5JxpR7tMg&autoplay=1
    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ew5JxpR7tMg&autoplay=1

  48. Rickey says:

    john:
    Maybe the “Universe Shattering” information has been the Bergdahl Swap.

    How would Zullo have known about the Bergdahl swap months ago? Inquiring minds want to know. Is he clairvoyant?

  49. RanTalbott says:

    Rickey: Is he clairvoyant?

    Given his failure to foresee that all his “evidence” would be ripped to microscopic shreds, that the “VIPs” would never materialize, (still not certain, but probable) that he would be snookered by a con man who gave him fake “proof” that rebutted the Xerox evidence, and that he wouldn’t be on the same continent as “ready” for the Universe-Shattering Reveal™ in March, our panel of psychic experts says ….

    No.

  50. gorefan says:

    ASK Esq: It most certainly does.

    This line – “Certificate of Live Birth I examined is not a scan of an original paper birth certificate, but a digitally manufactured documented created by utilizing material from various sources” – is almost exactly the same as what the CCP experts said. I think he parroted what they wrote when he was given their reports and asked to verify that they were correct.

  51. Northland10 says:

    Joey: Conservatives conveniently ignore when President Reagan sold American missiles to the terrorist nation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in exchange for the release of American hostages.

    Even the ones who did the selling:

    http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/oliver-north-yes-oliver-north-accuses-obama-financing-terrorist-organization-bergdahl-releas

  52. The Magic M says:

    ASK Esq: While I cannot say for certain, of course, to me it seems possible that Hayes created this group so as to make himself appear more qualified, and to deflect some of the anti-birther criticism of his qualifications to pass judgment on the scan.

    Which in turn would lead one to believe Hayes isn’t just someone who gave a third class report (“based on the very selective information that was shown to me, I conclude the BC is a forgery”) or sold his name but someone who is a birther himself. Gee, and I thought one would have to be a conspiracy loon to end up with “you’re one of them!” type conclusions…

  53. Thomas Brown says:

    Henry. Dude. Get a life.

  54. Sef says:

    Xerox’ motto for their printers: “We make originals, not copies.”

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