The occasional open thread: better late than never edition

Posted on February 1, 2012 by Dr. Conspiracy

Place comments here not related to the current open topics. Comments will close in two weeks.

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I'm not a real doctor, but I have a master's degree.

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182 Responses to The occasional open thread: better late than never edition

Dr. Conspiracy says:

February 1, 2012 at 10:31 am Dr. Conspiracy(Quote)

So I had 9 comments left this morning. They were all made by someone named “author.” Author didn’t leave an email address, but he did give a URL, which was “http://url” and left a comment: “comment.”
J. Potter says:

February 1, 2012 at 10:54 am J. Potter(Quote)

Pinging the site in some way?
Testing the site response?
Testing for active vs. passive management, maybe.
A bot perhaps.
Majority Will says:

February 1, 2012 at 10:59 am Majority Will(Quote)

J. Potter:
Pinging the site in some way?
Testing the site response?
Testing for active vs. passive management, maybe.
A bot perhaps.

It was a bored Langolier just eating up time.
misha says:

February 1, 2012 at 11:51 am misha(Quote)

A must read:

Gay Tiger Attacks Santorum

After making remarks in which he equated homosexuality with bestiality, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum was attacked at a Las Vegas hotel’s jungle habitat by a gay tiger.

Read on: http://www.borowitzreport.com/2012/02/01/gay-tiger-attacks-santorum/
Arthur says:

February 1, 2012 at 12:02 pm Arthur(Quote)

Here’s a little more about Rick Santorum, via Second City:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaPKt3c8S-w&feature=player_embedded
Arthur says:

February 1, 2012 at 12:06 pm Arthur(Quote)

And for those who want even more laughs: the transcript of Orly Taitz bumble-dicking around at the Georgia ballot hearing.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/79854011/Georgia-Farrar-et-al-v-Obama-Certified-Transcript-1-26-12-Hearing-tfb
Majority Will says:

February 1, 2012 at 12:16 pm Majority Will(Quote)

“Rick Santorum” ” A BLR Soundbite

“I borrow meat to provide for my puddy tat.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=js3BYcHmBhE
Arthur says:

February 1, 2012 at 12:31 pm Arthur(Quote)

Thanks for the link–I love a little laughter in the morning. Feels like . . . victory.

Majority Will: “Rick Santorum” ” A BLR Soundbite
Majority Will says:

February 1, 2012 at 12:49 pm Majority Will(Quote)

Arthur:
Thanks for the link “I love a little laughter in the morning. Feels like . . . victory.

“I’m crazy and I’m right.” – That would make a good banner for Haskins’ Birther Summit of 12 people that will fail spectacularly in the near future.
J. Potter says:

February 1, 2012 at 1:18 pm J. Potter(Quote)

Majority Will: Haskins’ Birther Summit of 12 people that will fail spectacularly in the near future.

Gonna be a long day for 12 people trying to hit up 535 Congressional offices. On a Friday.
Majority Will says:

February 1, 2012 at 1:20 pm Majority Will(Quote)

J. Potter: Gonna be a long day for 12 people trying to hit up 535 Congressional offices. On a Friday.

Well, maybe Swensson can help his birther brother out with another 6 people.
Sarina says:

February 1, 2012 at 1:23 pm Sarina(Quote)

I was having a conversation with a birther, he was saying something about Muslims and I told him “did you know that we have two Muslims in Congress? ( last time a checked) one of them is Keith Ellison, and he was sworn in with the Koran that Jefferson had in his office.

He told me that Jefferson read the Koaran to “know our enemy” and I told him, one of my teacher in HS told me that Jefferson acquired the Koran when he was a law student . He was interested in other customs and cultures of other countries.

Can somebody know something else about why Thomas Jefferson had a Koran in his office?
J. Potter says:

February 1, 2012 at 1:25 pm J. Potter(Quote)

LOL! Farah birf’d re: Rubio on Hannity last night:

http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/201201310014

He asserts Rubio is not eligible for the Vice Presidency. And everyone blows him off.

Why does Fox keep having this guy on?!?
J. Potter says:

February 1, 2012 at 1:29 pm J. Potter(Quote)

Sarina: Can somebody know something else about why Thomas Jefferson had a Koran in his office?

A great article from Slate:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/fighting_words/2007/01/jeffersons_quran.html

And a much more in-depth article from Early American Literature
http://www.cairchicago.org/doc/thomas_jefferson_quran.pdf

And the best reasoning of all, from V for Vendetta 😉
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RH96S4rBZbI
Sarina says:

February 1, 2012 at 1:56 pm Sarina(Quote)

Thank you J. Potter!
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 2:05 pm G(Quote)

LMAO!!!

Majority Will: It was a bored Langolier just eating up time.
Dr. Conspiracy says:

February 1, 2012 at 3:53 pm Dr. Conspiracy(Quote)

Misconfigured spamming script, I would think. It was picked up by the spam filter and never actually made it to the site. Keep in mind that I get tens of thousands of spam comments every year, many from broken scripts.

J. Potter: A bot perhaps.
Dr. Conspiracy says:

February 1, 2012 at 3:55 pm Dr. Conspiracy(Quote)

The number of comments on the blog has passed 120,000.
Majority Will says:

February 1, 2012 at 4:01 pm Majority Will(Quote)

Dr. Conspiracy:
The number of comments on the blog has passed 120,000.

Mazel tov!
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 4:05 pm G(Quote)

Woo hoo! 🙂

Dr. Conspiracy: The number of comments on the blog has passed 120,000.
misha says:

February 1, 2012 at 4:41 pm misha(Quote)

Earlier, I suggested to Orly that she go back to her West Bank settlement, and get her kicks instead, by beating up Arabs.

That was not hyperbole: http://newyorkleftist.blogspot.com/2009/10/jewish-pogrom.html

Orly and Andrew Adler are two sides of the same coin, and they are dangerous:

“Jewish publisher is an idiot – but his hatred is shared by many – There is something eerily familiar in all this, of course, for anyone who was present 16 years ago at Tel Aviv’s Kikar Malchei Yisrael, as it was then known, on the night that Yitzhak Rabin was murdered.

I know, and most of you know, that Adler’s crazy and criminal suggestions are not the ranting of some loony-tune individual and were not taken out of thin air – but are the inevitable result of the inordinate volume of repugnant venom that some of Obama’s political rivals, Jews and non-Jews included, have been spewing for the last three years.”

Read on: http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/west-of-eden/jewish-publisher-is-an-idiot-but-his-hatred-is-shared-by-many-1.408466
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 5:29 pm G(Quote)

With the FL primary now complete and showing 100% of the votes in, I thought I’d post my latest comparative analysis & reflection on the state of the race here.

First of all, the FINAL results from last night:

1 Mitt Romney 775,014 46.42%
2 Newt Gingrich 533,117 31.93%
3 Rick Santorum 222,798 13.34%
4 Ron Paul 117,105 7.01%
5 Rick Perry (withdrawn) 6,768 0.41%
6 Jon Huntsman (withdrawn) 6,198 0.37%
7 Michele Bachmann (withdrawn) 3,959 0.24%
8 Herman Cain (withdrawn) 3,494 0.21%
9 Gary Johnson (withdrawn) 1,196 0.07%

Total 2012 FL GOP Primary Votes: 1,669,649 100.00%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Florida_primary

Now, let’s take a quick look at the FL Primary Election (January 29, 2008) results in comparison:

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2008/2008pres.pdf

1 McCain, John R 701,761 36.00%
2 Romney, Mitt R 604,932 31.03%
3 Giuliani, Rudy R 286,089 14.68%
4 Huckabee, Mike R 262,681 13.47%
5 Paul, Ron R 62,887 3.23%
6 Thompson, Fred R 22,668 1.16%
7 Keyes, Alan R 4,060 0.21%
8 Hunter, Duncan R 2,847 0.15%
9 Tancredo, Tom R 1,573 0.08%

Total Party Votes: R 1,949,498 100%

Each Primary race tells us a number of things – not only about the race, but also about the electorate and enthusiasm in general.

I’ll get into assessing what Romney’s win last night meant…and the path forward for him and the other 3 remaining candidates in subsequent posts. Here, I’ll just end with some high-level observations:

1. This was the first CLOSED contest we have had so far. What that means is that ONLY registered GOP voters could participate. (i.e. those registered in advance as such). In ALL the prior races, a varying degree of INDEPENENTS (or even party switching Democrats) could ALSO participate in the GOP Primary/Caucus contest.

2. Surprisingly, this is the first contest to show a *HUGE* decline in total participation – 279,849 LESS GOP voters than just 4 years ago! That is more than a 14% decline in turnout…and in an all important “swing state” of FL – that is definitely not a good sign for the GOP and should be viewed as a “red flag”.

3. However, keep in mind that this decline in turnout is a direct contrast to the huge gains in participation that SC demonstrated, which was close to 35% more turnout than the prior cycle. (Then again, SC was an OPEN primary, where *both* independents AND Democrats could chose to vote GOP…and where Obama was unopposed…so that needs to be factored in as well…)

4. The first two contests (IA and NH) were only marginally better in turnout than their 2008 results. Also, the exit poll results from those first two contests showed that there was a huge increase in “Independent” participation as a big factor. When those that are declared “Independent” are factored out, these states show a decline in GOP participation as well.

With only 4 states having voted so far, this just points to an area of analysis that deserves further attention as more and more states participate. Right now, both the trend and its causes are unclear.

On one hand, an extended competitive contest should increase participation and turnout and engender passion or excitement in certain voting blocks. In that aspect, I’m actually quite surprised by the HUGE decrease in FL participation – particularly when record-breaking amounts of money and coverage have been spent in that state this cycle.

On the other hand, some of the red flags of actual GOP voter turnout in this contest should cause the GOP to be further concerned about their General Election chances.

What the “Independent” participation really means in these races is also unclear and is likely a mixed-bag of messages, as “Independent” is just a catch-all for all sorts of different motivations at play.

In summary, the turnout itself is becoming a fascinating part of the whole story and will be an area I’ll try to watch & provide further analysis on as this race continues.
gorefan says:

February 1, 2012 at 5:40 pm gorefan(Quote)

G: First of all, the FINAL results from last night

Wow, Santorum really screws it up for Newt.
Majority Will says:

February 1, 2012 at 5:46 pm Majority Will(Quote)

gorefan: Wow, Santorum really screws it up for Newt.

I’m not seeing the problem there. 😀
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 6:24 pm G(Quote)

Not really. If you add Santorum’s total to Newt’s total, it is still approx 20 K votes shy of what Mitt Romney got. Therefore, Mitt got more than both Newt & Santorum combined and still would have won this particular FL race.

However, Mitt’s 46.42% is not as impressive as expectations led many to predict. A number of the exit polls were giving him as much as 52% of the vote yesterday…and the establishment was clearly hoping he would clear the 50% mark, in order to really push the narrative of him as the “defacto inevitable nominee” again.

Obviously, that is still the narrative that they will try to push… in hopes of pressuring the others to drop out of the race, but that looks very unlikely to happen at this point, until at least after “Super Tuesday” on March 6th.

All 3 of the other campaigns vowed to continue and the data gives them good reason to try…as long as their money sources don’t run out before then. Right now, we’ve had 4 races and 3 different winners. Romney is back in a good spot with a 50 delegate win and now being the first to claim 2 state victories. But 2 for 4 was not going to end this, regardless of whether it was Romney or Newt that won FL.

Romney now has regained momentum and has a lot of states favorable to him coming up in Feb. There is a fair chance that he could “run the board” and win ALL of the pre-Super Tuesday contests. That is his best hope here, because in doing so, he can extremely blunt the others chances and momentum to pull of a victory in any of the Super Tuesday races.

While the others can still build up delegates during this period, they have to each prove they can score another WIN by the time Super Tuesday completes, or else they are effectively “out” of this after March 6th… regardless of whether they try to limp along past that or not. All of them do have chances to pick up wins in this interim period (which I’ll discuss in a later post), but Romney is clearly back in the driver’s seat at the moment.

Even FL’s results, upon closer inspection, give reasons for Romney’s campaign to be concerned…and for Newt’s campaign in particular, to remain hopeful.

For one, Romney’s FL margin of victory over Newt is pretty much just a flip of how badly Newt beat Romeny in SC. So again, all we really have here is another momentum shift and nothing that breaks new ground in being decisive at all. Had Romney been able to edge past 50% instead of only getting 46%…he’d have a stronger case against Newt.

Second, when you look at the actual map of who won FL, you see that Newt actually won an impressive amount of counties – and the types that give his campaign hope that Newt will still be the victor when more Southern states come into play.

In fact, when you look at the race so far from a county level, you can see where all 4 campaigns see justification for continuing on at this point:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Republican_Party_presidential_primaries_results_by_county,_2012.png

Finally, in terms of FL and its 50 “winner-take-all” delegates… that “winner-take-all” designation itself is likely to be contested, as it violated the current RNC rules for no “winner-take-all” contests prior to April. Expect Newt’s campaign to pursue challenging this rule and with a fair shot of winning the argument for proportional allocation. The final results map for FL shows that Newt has great incentive to continue to push for that designation to be overturned, as he would likely get a decent apportionment of those 50 delegates, if FL was forced to adhere to the proportional allocation rules.

gorefan: Wow, Santorum really screws it up for Newt.
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 7:01 pm G(Quote)

Ok, for now I’m only going to focus on the next set of races that take place in the next week:

Nevada caucuses – February 4
Maine caucuses – February 4-11
Minnesota caucuses – February 7
Missouri primary – February 7
Colorado caucuses – February 7

The rest of the Pre-Super Tuesday contests don’t take place until towards the end of the month, so there will be an extended period of a few weeks for those (particularly AZ, MI & WA) to be influenced by not only the results of these other 5, but also whatever the campaigns do to “retool” in that interim. So, I’ll hold of any analysis or prognosis for them until we get past these next 5 first.

First up – Romney. He’s in the best position here for several reasons:

First, he has the obvious momentum from FL’s decisive win.

Second, he has the most money and most of the establishment backing.

Third – GROUND organization. This too often gets overlooked in the media hype… yet it is critical in every state race – especially caucus contests.

Even in FL, where all the emphasis was on Romney’s unprecedented ad campaign (well over $15 million) and where he easily outspent Newt’s groups by a factor of more than 5 to 1. Yes, that is all extremely impressive…but it is not the sole reason for his strong win there. His better performance in the FL debates (and Newt’s less forceful performance) also is a well credited factor. However, what seems to get lost in the reporting is how he also had an extremely impressive and well organized ground game in FL. In fact, his operation in FL had more offices and operatives on the ground than he did in all of the prior 3 states combined! Romney truly deserves credit for being well prepared for FL on ALL levels and more credit needs to be given for the ground game operations he is building.

I state that to also point out that his teams have been on the ground in ALL these Feb contest states and that he’s got impressive organizations in place and humming along in all of them too. So, Romeny is in a very, very good position for these contests as well.

Fourth – Where the “Mormon factor” actually HELPS Romney: NV and CO have sizeable Morman populations, so this should help Romeny in those states as well. Similarly, his New England “roots” are expected to be a boost to his appeal and chances in ME.

So, in summary, Romney is in the best position for these early Feb contests. He stands a reasonable chance at winning all of them. The others all still have chances to win…but any winner OTHER than Romeny should be considered an “upset” for these particular races.
gorefan says:

February 1, 2012 at 7:25 pm gorefan(Quote)

G: Not really

All I’m saying is without Santorum the headline changes from “Mitt decisively wins” to “Mitt edges Newt”

And that is 20,000 votes out of 1.7 million.
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 7:26 pm G(Quote)

Now to look at Newt’s chances in the next 5 contests. First of all, we need to examine how Newt’s FL results impact his momentum.

Obviously, he didn’t get a win, which would have really given him a huge boost. But is he really damaged by coming in second? No, I don’t think so… as much as the “establishment” clearly wishes he was.

For one thing, a 2nd place finish in FL with 32% of the vote is still quite impressive. For another, he actually WON 34 of FL’s counties – those that more align with “Southern” and “Tea Party” base voters in the GOP. As I mentioned above, if Newt does stay in this for the long haul…he might even be able to overturn the “winner take all” allocation in FL and pull away some FL delegates for himself.

So Newt can look at these results and be encouraged that he not only still has a solid base of support to pursue, but more importantly, realize that Romney has some major “red flags” in support demographics in this race.

NV and ME have shown certain polling levels of support for Newt beyond just the “Conservative Not Mitt” bubbles…so he still has a fair chance to do well there. I’ve got less data on Newt’s fan base in CO or MN, so I can’t really assess his chances there.

Newt’s biggest obstacle in this next period is MO – where he failed to qualify for the ballot.

However, MO’s Feb 7th primary is just a “beauty contest” and does not allocate delegates at all…so it will be the most ignored of all the races by the media next week. But, by failing to qualify there, that also probably means he can’t participate in their Mar 17th Caucus…which is when they *do* allocate their delegates…so MO is still a “red flag” for Newt’s chances, period.

But Newt is unlikely to be stopped by the Feb contests, regardless of how he performs in them. Newt’s strength and results so far show that he’s looking to the Southern states to give him his next big boost and chance. Which means he needs to hold out until Super Tuesday, when GA and TN are at stake. In particular, GA should be considered his “home state” and that should be the contest in which he truly needs to WIN in order to justify staying in this beyond March 6th.

So, while the media and establishment will likely proclaim Newt “dead” yet again this cycle, the Feb. contests are not the right measuring stick to evaluate him on. It really doesn’t matter how he performs in Feb and will come down to GA on Mar 6th. If he can’t win anywhere else by then AND loses GA…then and only then can he finally be discounted and considered “dead” in this race. I simply wouldn’t count Newt out before then.
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 7:36 pm G(Quote)

Now to look at Santorum. I think he’s got the hardest path forward at this point, but is certainly not out of this at all.

Santorum’s strategy completely relies on having either Newt or Romney faltering between now and the end of Super Tuesday, in order to parlay their weakness as an opportunity for him to persuade voters that he is the more stable alternative and provides the more convincing contrast to Obama.

Santorum has certainly demonstrated continuous solid improvement in his last four debate performances and he’s got a compelling argument to make to both blue collar voters and to Deep Red voters.

His performance in these next 5 contests is simply too hard for me to predict. Unless his daughter’s health causes him to bow out, I would not be surprised if he stays in through March 6th, regardless. But if he can’t pull off another win by the time March 6th is over… I don’t see how he justifies staying in beyond that … unless March 6th reveals a near fatal weakness in either Mitt or Newt that he feels he can still exploit and turn into wins in the subsequent states. Regardless, he’s definitely in an underdog position at the moment and his future success is very dependent on weakness and failure in the other candidates.
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 8:06 pm G(Quote)

Finally, there is Ron Paul. I’ve always said that Feb will be the true test of Ron Paul’s chances.

The media seems unable to fathom why Ron Paul’s supporters were so jubilent after his 4th place finish in FL. What they fail to grasp is that, other than participating in the 2 TV debates, Ron Paul didn’t bother with FL at all. His reason – knowing the current “winner take all” stakes and the high cost of the FL media market. If anything, his decision to completely bypass FL was a sound strategy for his campaign to not waste money or resource effort where they knew they couldn’t win. Instead, while the other candidates were focused on FL, he was already wisely campaigning in the early Feb areas.

So, let’s do analysis like we have in the past of Paul’s 2008 & 2012 FL performance, to truly see if he was still improving even there:

2008 FL: 5th place; 62,887 votes; 3.23%
2012 FL: 4th place; 117,105 votes; 7.01%

ANALYSIS: Obviously, the 4th place finish over 5th doesn’t mean anything, as there are only 4 candidates left in the race. Instead, it is his vote total that should be compared…as that tells the true story – and it remains an IMPRESSIVE one.

For one thing, Ron Paul *did* campaign and try to compete in FL in 2008. Contrast that with 2012, in which he had ZERO offices in the state and spent ZERO time on the ground. In a year in which 279,849 LESS votes were cast in the FL GOP primary, Paul managed to INCREASE his own voter turnout by 54,218 additional votes!!!

So I would argue that these results still demonstrate the strength and momentum of Paul’s current campaign that continues to be ignored and discounted in the media.

Paul’s ground game in ALL of these upcoming Feb contests needs to be pointed out as well. His ground organizations in these areas seem to be every bit as strong as Romney’s. He also has quite a bit of money at his disposal to finally unleash in advertising, should he chose to do so.

Therefore, I continue to suspect that Paul will actually be the most competitive challenger to Romney in these Feb contests and I would not rule out that he might even win one or two of them. I think ME is his strongest chance, but he should be competitive in all of them. As long as he delivers even a few 2nd place performances, he will continue to increase his following’s momentum and chances for the late Feb contests (MI, AZ and especially WA) and remain a possible threat through Super Tuesday as well.

If he can demonstrate strength in these Pre-Super Tuesday events, then even a number of the Super-Tuesday contests are in play for him. In particular, these states on March 6th are where he could be competitive: AK, ID, ND, VT, VA, OH. (Only GA, MA, OK & TN are weak for him).
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 8:08 pm G(Quote)

Well, that pretty much concludes my post FL summary of the race for now. I hope JoyEagle is still reading here and is willing to share how he & his family decided to cast their votes in FL and how they feel about the race…
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 8:09 pm G(Quote)

Thanks for clarifying. Point taken.

gorefan: All I’m saying is without Santorum the headline changes from “Mitt decisively wins” to “Mitt edges Newt” And that is 20,000 votes out of 1.7 million.
Arthur says:

February 1, 2012 at 9:05 pm Arthur(Quote)

And now for something completely different: MARIO APUZZO IS CHOSEN MAN OF THE YEAR!

http://www.thepostemail.com/2011/12/31/man-of-the-year-award-mario-apuzzo-esq/
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 9:27 pm G(Quote)

In both GOP race & BIrther News – Trump Plans Major Announcement tomorrow:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/02/01/trump_plans_major_announcement.html#disqus_thread

Trump Plans Major Announcement

Donald Trump plans “a major announcement” tomorrow in Nevada which “will pertain to the Presidential race,” Politico reports.

Wall Street Journal: “Mr. Trump loves to keep people guessing — and elbowing his way into the headlines. Perhaps the best question, if he’s not throwing his hat in the ring, is whether the candidate who receives his endorsement actually wants his backing.”
misha says:

February 1, 2012 at 9:38 pm misha(Quote)

Arthur: MARIO APUZZO IS CHOSEN MAN OF THE YEAR!

Correction: putz of the year. I’ll drink to that.

True story: when one of Mario’s accident clients dies, he provides donor organs with a certificate:

“This kidney is a certified Manischewitz™ kosher kidney, and it can safely be placed in your husband’s body. We only ask a small donation to the Sages of Israel, so they can continue their work of throwing stones at women in short pants, and at cars driving on Shabbat.”

Mit glick und mazel,
M. ~~Apuzzo~~ Abramowitz
Majority Will says:

February 1, 2012 at 9:43 pm Majority Will(Quote)

G:
In both GOP race & BIrther News “ Trump Plans Major Announcement tomorrow:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/02/01/trump_plans_major_announcement.html#disqus_thread

That weird, angry mongoose on his head is actually a SuperPAC?
Arthur says:

February 1, 2012 at 9:56 pm Arthur(Quote)

Do you think he’s going to endorse Mitt Romney?

G: In both GOP race & BIrther News “ Trump Plans Major Announcement tomorrow:
misha says:

February 1, 2012 at 10:05 pm misha(Quote)

Majority Will: That weird, angry mongoose on his head is actually a SuperPAC?

Will you people show some respect? That is NOT a mongoose. It’s a badger.

If it was a mongoose, it would eat the weapon Glenn Beck stashed there, after that poor girl met her demise – allegedly.

Here’s the full story:
http://newyorkleftist.blogspot.com/2010/11/glenn-beck-accidentally-not-put-down.html
JPotter says:

February 1, 2012 at 10:31 pm JPotter(Quote)

In light of past several week’s events, I wish every day was Thursday!

If it wasn’t for Trump’s ridiculous ego, endorsing Romney would be a no-brainer for him. If Trump himself was not a no-brainer, he would realize that association with him does more harm than good.

I can’t wait for the overhyped, pointless distraction. Really, the suspense. Oh dear, I am being killed.

Arthur:
Do you think he’s going to endorse Mitt Romney?
misha says:

February 1, 2012 at 10:37 pm misha(Quote)

Arthur:
Do you think he’s going to endorse Mitt Romney?

He’s too egotistical.
G says:

February 1, 2012 at 10:46 pm G(Quote)

Beyond finding a way to turn this latest stunt into promoting his new season of Celebrity Apprentice (starts Sun 2/19 on NBC at 9pm), who really knows what hucksterism Trump has planned for tomorrow…

I honestly have no clue. The Birther contingency is not one any serious candidate would want grafted to their campaign. I can’t imagine any of these 4 actually stumping for Trump’s blessing (despite those articles reporting rumours of a Romney endorsement). I would expect such to be more damaging and useful AGAINST a candidate than helpful…

Arthur: Do you think he’s going to endorse Mitt Romney?
Arthur says:

February 1, 2012 at 11:00 pm Arthur(Quote)

G: I would expect such to be more damaging and useful AGAINST a candidate than helpful ¦

I don’t know . . . afterall, all the major Republican hopefuls, on their own volition, traveled to New York to have a meeting and photo op. with Trump. They must have seen some political value in doing so.
JPotter says:

February 1, 2012 at 11:02 pm JPotter(Quote)

misha: He’s too egotistical.

New York Times reports he will endorse Gingrich. I don’t see why, but, Trump’s a moron, so I am happily unable to understand him. Whatever it is, he’ll fit right in with fellow Gingrich endorsers: Cain, the Palins, Chuck Norris, Tim Lahaye, WND ….
JPotter says:

February 1, 2012 at 11:06 pm JPotter(Quote)

G: The Birther contingency is not one any serious candidate would want grafted to their campaign.

The Birthers disowned Trump. Well, some of them did. They can’t even settle on a unified dogma,* much less anything else!

* I always point out how powerless Birtherism is, unable to win converts on its merits. Hell, birtherism of a given strain can’t even convince birthers adhering to other strains! I will refrain from implying a parallel between birther strains and religious denominations. Oops, just did.
gorefan says:

February 1, 2012 at 11:13 pm gorefan(Quote)

Arthur: Do you think he’s going to endorse Mitt Romney?

Wasn’t Newt the only one to accept the Donald’s debate invitation?
misha says:

February 1, 2012 at 11:41 pm misha(Quote)

JPotter: New York Times reports he will endorse Gingrich.

Wonderful. Barry (I’m not Jewish) Goldwater redux.
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:07 am G(Quote)

Ah…you have a point there… Although I’m not sure if all of them did…or exactly which ones did and which ones didn’t.

I’m pretty sure Ron Paul never visited Trump. I know Gingrich did. I think I remember hearing about both Cain & Bachmann visiting him too…but they are out of the race.

Although Santorum agreed to the Trump debate (which got cancelled), he never visited Trump to “kiss his ring” and even boasted that he wouldn’t do that:

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/12/rick-santorum-im-not-a-celebrity/

Romney, the peerless panderer, *did* slink over to kiss Trump’s ring… but he tried to do so in “stealth mode” and actually was doing everything in his power to keep it out of the media at the time:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20111838-503544.html

So…other than perhaps ego-driven Newt… I can’t see anyone of the other 3 wanting to get a public endorsement from Trump whatsoever at all…

Arthur: I don’t know . . . afterall, all the major Republican hopefuls, on their own volition, traveled to New York to have a meeting and photo op. with Trump. They must have seen some political value in doing so.
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:09 am G(Quote)

Wow…what a rogue’s gallery!

JPotter: New York Times reports he will endorse Gingrich. I don’t see why, but, Trump’s a moron, so I am happily unable to understand him. Whatever it is, he’ll fit right in with fellow Gingrich endorsers: Cain, the Palins, Chuck Norris, Tim Lahaye, WND ¦.
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:09 am G(Quote)

Newt & Santorum.

gorefan: Wasn’t Newt the only one to accept the Donald’s debate invitation?
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:10 am G(Quote)

Points taken! 😉

JPotter: The Birthers disowned Trump. Well, some of them did. They can’t even settle on a unified dogma,* much less anything else!* I always point out how powerless Birtherism is, unable to win converts on its merits. Hell, birtherism of a given strain can’t even convince birthers adhering to other strains! I will refrain from implying a parallel between birther strains and religious denominations. Oops, just did.
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 1:27 am G(Quote)

Well, I’ll just remain a bit skeptical of the reports until I see what carnival barker stunt Trump actually pulls tomorrow. I’ve seen various reports on otherwise “credible” political and news blogs claiming 4 different things already – 1) that he’s taken steps to enter the GOP race, 2) that he’s going to run 3rd party, 3) that he’s going to endorse Romney and 4) that he’s going to endorse Newt.

So, I don’t know what to believe. So far, it seems like just a bunch of wild speculation…some of which is being passed along as if it is fact. Nothing will surprise me with Trump.

If he did endorse Newt, my sarcastic quip would be wondering if the Romney campaign put him up to it in order to further damage Newt. 😉

…But on the serious side, I’d be wondering which Newt endorsement ranks as the worst – WND, Trump or Duke Cunningham & “80% of his prison buddies…”

JPotter: New York Times reports he will endorse Gingrich. I don’t see why, but, Trump’s a moron, so I am happily unable to understand him. Whatever it is, he’ll fit right in with fellow Gingrich endorsers: Cain, the Palins, Chuck Norris, Tim Lahaye, WND ¦.
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 2:01 am G(Quote)

Well, it looks like you are going to get your wish for another Birther-Crazy Thursday!

In addition to Trump’s antics, I just saw this report over at Patrick’s BadFiction blog:

http://badfiction.typepad.com/badfiction/2012/02/dispatches-from-birtherstan-31-january-1-february-2012.html#more

31 January – Looks like some people in Alabama are still upset that the scary black man is in the WHITE House. In this case, Hugh McInnish, member of the Madison County GOP Executive Committee.

“For the last several months I have been working on a white paper presenting the evidence that Mr. Obamas so-called birth certificate is a forgery. I have completed this paper and it contains some 30 pages of text and exhibits. I and my colleague Dean Johnson, who is a lawyer, will present it in a press conference on the steps of the Alabama Capitol in Montgomery on Thursday, February 2 at 1:30. The public is, of course, invited, and if you are patriotically inclined please join us. Signs are invited (but please leave your AK47s at home in the closet.)”

JPotter: In light of past several week’s events, I wish every day was Thursday!
JPotter says:

February 2, 2012 at 2:08 am JPotter(Quote)

To be accurate, WND has not (to my knowledge) endorsed Gingrich, but several of their writers have. Which is weird, seems like they’d go all in on Santorum. But anyway, WND never endorses anything, they’re never for anything, that takes spine, character, fiber. And the guts to risk error. WND itself is against a great many things (Romney!), but for nothing.
JPotter says:

February 2, 2012 at 2:18 am JPotter(Quote)

G: Well, it looks like you are going to get your wish for another Birther-Crazy Thursday!… (but please leave your AK47s at home in the closet.)

Sweeeeet! Kudos to bad fiction for picking up on the Streeter cartoon! They have good taste!

I note that this joker is also a county bigwig in the GOP. What gives? If this some kind of Southern NCO Red birther strategy? Our top level estates of national prominence will oppose this madness, while our low-level estates will embrace it. Robert the Bruce the Elder was a Republican after all. 😉

Yeah, definitely leave the AK47s* at home, way too Islammer-commernist fer a birfer pitchfork rally! Shotguns much more in keeping. Please remain vigilant against 2nd Amendment fashion faux pas at all times.

* What a bizarre, random, paranoid comment!
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 2:29 am G(Quote)

Yeah…and worse than that, it seems this kook has quite a dubious past, rife with various connections to clearly racist statements and support of neo-Nazi types of causes… seems he’s been on the watch list of the SPLC for quite some time. If you read more of Patrick’s article on this, he provides quite a few links to those slimy connections in this creep’s past…

JPotter: I note that this joker is also a county bigwig in the GOP. What gives? If this some kind of Southern NCO Red birther strategy? Our top level estates of national prominence will oppose this madness, while our low-level estates will embrace it. Robert the Bruce the Elder was a Republican after all.

Yeah…totally bizarre and creepy!

JPotter: Yeah, definitely leave the AK47s* at home , way too Islammer-commernist fer a birfer pitchfork rally! Shotguns much more in keeping. Please remain vigilant against 2nd Amendment fashion faux pas at all times.

* What a bizarre, random, paranoid comment!
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 2:32 am G(Quote)

Good clarification, thanks.

Then again, it is easy to argue that folks like either Farah or Corsi are so directly connected to the cr@p site that is WND, that their personal views and that site are practically interchangeable and indistinguishable…

JPotter: To be accurate, WND has not (to my knowledge) endorsed Gingrich, but several of their writers have. Which is weird, seems like they’d go all in on Santorum. But anyway, WND never endorses anything, they’re never for anything, that takes spine, character, fiber. And the guts to risk error. WND itself is against a great many things (Romney!), but for nothing.
Keith says:

February 2, 2012 at 4:42 am Keith(Quote)

G: Well, that pretty much concludes my post FL summary of the race for now.

Have you got a committed delegate count? Usually these things are being discussed ad infinitum by this point in the race. I haven’t heard a thing about it this cycle.
Keith says:

February 2, 2012 at 4:45 am Keith(Quote)

Arthur:
Do you think he’s going to endorse Mitt Romney?

More likely a TV show “The Apprentice: GOP Candidates edition”

p.s. I have been away for a few days and didn’t check the date on this post. My snark may already be obsolete.
J. Potter says:

February 2, 2012 at 9:38 am J. Potter(Quote)

Keith: Have you got a committed delegate count? Usually these things are being discussed ad infinitum by this point in the race. I haven’t heard a thing about it this cycle.

Keith, between various rule changes and what not, maybe the word ‘committed’ has gone out of style. What I am seeing everywhere is ‘pledged’ (bound by primary results (caucuses are much slipperier, don’t actually bind anything!)), and unpledged delegates (‘superdelegates’, party officials, elected officeholders). Lots of sources post delegate counts, CNN has one here:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries.html

Very much subject to change. According to them, Romney leads 85-27 at the moment.

Lots of things are AWOL this election cycle. Like George W. Bush. He continues to be radioactive to the Reds. I think he may be sequestered until 2013, or exiled to Africa. Not much action at Facebook, no action at all at his Presidential library. georgewbush.org is still up, providing some vintage laughs!

Another unmentionable is “Federal Matching Funds”. I think it’s only for losers now.* Since Bush decided to break the bank, and Obama fought back by maxing out small and large donors to really break the bank, that system is a distant memory.

* Literally, only for losers. Helps them pay up campaign debts after they ‘suspend’.
Arthur says:

February 2, 2012 at 9:44 am Arthur(Quote)

From the Department of I Told You So, a new study published in Psychological Science and reported by the Huffington Post, shows that “people who score low on I.Q. tests in childhood are more likely to develop prejudiced beliefs and socially conservative politics in adulthood.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/27/intelligence-study-links-prejudice_n_1237796.html
Arthur says:

February 2, 2012 at 10:24 am Arthur(Quote)

Here’s an entertaining trailer to the HBO film, “Game Change,” starring Ed Harris as John McCain and Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=IPhh7mch5zo
J. Potter says:

February 2, 2012 at 11:23 am J. Potter(Quote)

Arthur: From the Department of I Told You So, a new study published in Psychological Science and reported by the Huffington Post, shows that “people who score low on I.Q. tests in childhood are more likely to develop prejudiced beliefs and socially conservative politics in adulthood.”http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/27/intelligence-study-links-prejudice_n_1237796.html

I could swear there has been a very similar claim posted on OCT before. Check your confirmation bias before reading …. the PDF of the study referred to is at:
http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2012/01/04/0956797611421206.full.pdf+html
Keith says:

February 2, 2012 at 11:51 am Keith(Quote)

J. Potter: Very much subject to change. According to them, Romney leads 85-27 at the moment.

Apparantly Newt is challenging the Florida winner takes all. He’s saying that since they went before 1 Feb they have to allocate it according to percentage.
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:00 pm G(Quote)

It is quite complex…and a bit uncertain, actually. In terms of Committed Delegates, I would go with this list:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

Now I’ll put asteriks to discuss where delegate numbers are most subject to change

Romney: 66 (FL=50*, SC=2, NH = 7, IA = 7**)
Gingrich: 27 (SC=23, IA = 4**)
Paul: 10 (SC=3, IA = 7**)
Santorum: 7 (IA = 7**)

* = FL: Why: Gingrich likely to contest FL “winner take all” status, since GOP rules for this cycle were ALL states before April 1st were to be proportional. Gingrich won 35 counties in FL and has a fair argument to strip some of those 50 Romney delegates for himself.

** = IA: Why: Existing numbers are just projected assumptions based on caucus race results & Perry dropping out & endorsing Gingrich. Actual delegate allocation happens towards end of entire race and is based on who gets elected to pledge their delegate vote, NOT on the actual results. Ron Paul’s campaign has been working to stack those delegate election committee’s with people loyal to him. In other words, this was a “non-binding” caucus, and the final people selected to be delegates can vote for whomever they choose. [25 delegates appear to be available in IA…note: this final number is also subject to some dispute and might be contested at the convention as well]

1143 Delegates is the minimum threshold needed by a candidate to become the nominee (i.e. half the full total available).

The GOP also has 132 “Super-Delegates” available. These are basically high-powered people within the GOP that count as their own delegate vote. So far, 15 have pledged to Romney and 1 each to Newt & Santorum.

The Projected Delegate Total combines the Committed Delegates from the State contests and the Super Delegate counts. Therefore, where things stand today, this is how things appear at the moment:

Romney: 81
Gingrich: 28
Paul: 10
Santorum: 8

Bottom Line: Only about 5% of the delegates available have been allocated so far and no one yet has even reached 100 delegates. With 1143 needed to cinch a win, there is a long way to go. Only 112 delegates have been available from the 4 state races so far.

The early Feb contests (NV, ME, CO, MN) will provide for 128 more delegates to be allocated. So, by Feb 11th, we should know how those all turned out.

The end of Feb contests (NMI, AZ, MI) plus WA (Mar 3) put up another 111 delegates into the mix.

Then Super-Tuesday gives us 10 states and 437 delegates on Mar 6th. In other words, that day alone provides as many delegates as all the races before it.

Therefore, by the time Super-Tuesday completes, 660 state delegates will be “projected” onto the candidates. It is understandable to see why all 4 candidates in this race would want to try to stick though Super-Tuesday to realistically assess if they have a shot at this.

http://www.gop.com/images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf

Keith: Have you got a committed delegate count? Usually these things are being discussed ad infinitum by this point in the race. I haven’t heard a thing about it this cycle.
J. Potter says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:01 pm J. Potter(Quote)

Keith: Apparantly Newt is challenging the Florida winner takes all. He’s saying that since they went before 1 Feb they have to allocate it according to percentage.

Another champion of individual liberty and states’ rights. What a @#%$!!! Is this an internal, party challenge, or, reason forbid, in the courts?

That blubbery bully is a waddling embarrassment.

As John Stewart said ….”Please don’t do this….please?”
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:06 pm G(Quote)

That is correct. See my previous post, under the * = FL section, which explains why. Also, the link I put at the bottom helps explain this. I’ll restate it:

http://www.gop.com/images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf

Newt actually has a very strong case to get FL’s “winner take all” to be overturned and reallocated as proportional. As he won 35 of FL’s counties, he could end up with a decent sized minority chunk of those 50 if he wins.

If FL became a proportional allocation, only Mitt Romney and Newt would end up with delegates out of FL, based on the election results. Right now, all 50 went to Mitt.

Keith: want to try to stick though Super-Tuesday to realistically assess if they have a shot at this.
http://www.gop.com/images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:14 pm G(Quote)

On this I disagree with you.

This is very different from the stupid legal challenges that Newt, Perry, Santorum, Bachmann and Huntsman tried in Virginia.

In FL, the controlling authority is the GOP’s own convention rules that they set forth and adopted in 2008 for the 2012 cycle. All state GOP were to adhere to those rules. FL violated several of them. The penalty of having their 98 votes cut to 50 was for their calendar violation.

The “winner take all” issue is a separate infraction and hasn’t been addressed and won’t be resolved until their meeting at the end of this process.

What will happen then is very similar to the meeting the Democrats had at the end of the 2008 Primary, in which several of their own state’s infractions and penalties had to be debated and assessed.

So, Newt contesting this particular issue is fully within their own rules and is to be expected. Heck, this particular FL allocation issue was likely to be subject to a committee rule debate at the end, regardless. Newt just gives it extra momentum.

Expect a number of the early state penalties and other small infraction issues to also come up at this committee…so there is a fair amount of additional uncertainty in terms of what final delegate totals will be, period. All of that is simply how their own internal rules process works.

J. Potter: Another champion of individual liberty and states’ rights. What a @#%$!!! Is this an internal, party challenge, or, reason forbid, in the courts? That blubbery bully is a waddling embarrassment. As John Stewart said ¦.”Please don’t do this ¦.please?”
J. Potter says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:22 pm J. Potter(Quote)

G: On this I disagree with you.

And it sounds like the RNC disagrees with you 😉
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-presidential-primary/208249-gingrich-camp-challenging-florida-delegate-apportionment

No expert on the party rules, but it sounds like the RNC is hands off. FL lost half of it delegates for going early, but the state party sets rules on apportionment.

All a silly urination contest. So long as it isn’t wasting courtroom time!
J. Potter says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:24 pm J. Potter(Quote)

and there’s more, more, more …
http://wwwwakeupamericans-spree.blogspot.com/2012/02/newt-gingrich-and-florida-residents.html

setting up a lingering mess for August!
You’d think the party would anticipate thies foolishness, and get its act together.
J. Potter says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:28 pm J. Potter(Quote)

Oh, this is heartwarming:

We Need To Show Our Support For Judge Malihi and Mr. Kemp!!!!

Yes, pester them with well-meaning birther drool drops right up until the moment they do their jobs, er, that is, “stab you all in the back” 😉

There’s some amazingly longwinded links on the site’s righthand navigation.
“Dummy’s guide to the 14th amendment” is anything but.
“When will the birthers be happy?” made no attempt to answer that question.

I want my money back.
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:35 pm G(Quote)

Actually, the “winner take all” violation for FL is because they went before April 1st.

That is a violation of the GOP’s own internal rule: 15(b)(2):

Any presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting held for the purpose of selecting delegates to the national convention which occurs prior to the first day of April in the year in which the national convention is held, shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis.

FL also had a separate violation by moving their Primary contest up from what I think was originally sometime in April to eventually be on Jan 31st.

That violated rule 15(b)(1):

No primary, caucus, or convention to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to the national convention shall occur prior to the first Tuesday in March in the year in which a national convention is held. Except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their processes at any time on or after February 1 in the year in which a national convention is held and shall not be subject to the provisions of paragraph (b)(2) of this rule.

As you can see, the Feb 1st date only applied to IA, NH, SC and NV. (and IA, NH and SC decided to violate that rule too).

ALL the other states couldn’t go before the 1st Tuesday in March (i.e March 6th this year – “Super-Tuesday”).

ALL states that violated the calendar rule (which turned out to be ALL the states prior to 3/6 this year, with the exception of NV) had their delegates cut in half.

This can be found under the enforcement provisions under Rule 16.

I hope that clears things up a bit. Obviously, it has been such a cluster-f*#k of various violations in play, that everyone, including many within the GOP and media remain confused and often pass along incorrect info about dates and how the penalties work.

Keith: He’s saying that since they went before 1 Feb they have to allocate it according to percentage.
Arthur says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:36 pm Arthur(Quote)

J. Potter: I could swear there has been a very similar claim posted on OCT before. Check your confirmation bias before reading

You’re probably right about this study being referenced earlier, as it was released on-line before it was printed this January.

In terms of confirmation bias, I reviewed the abstract of the research and it appears to support that the summary of the article I quoted:

“Despite their important implications for interpersonal behaviors and relations, cognitive abilities have been largely ignored as explanations of prejudice. We proposed and tested mediation models in which lower cognitive ability predicts greater prejudice, an effect mediated through the endorsement of right-wing ideologies (social conservatism, right-wing authoritarianism) and low levels of contact with out-groups. In an analysis of two large-scale, nationally representative United Kingdom data sets (N = 15,874), we found that lower general intelligence (g) in childhood predicts greater racism in adulthood, and this effect was largely mediated via conservative ideology. A secondary analysis of a U.S. data set confirmed a predictive effect of poor abstract-reasoning skills on antihomosexual prejudice, a relation partially mediated by both authoritarianism and low levels of intergroup contact.”

I would find it hard to accept a study that concluded that ALL conservatives test for low cognitive abilities, but it’s been my experience that the conservative movement, which was once synonymous with profound aesthetic and intellectual traditions, has been tainted by unsavory forces in American culture, e.g. the birthers.
J. Potter says:

February 2, 2012 at 12:53 pm J. Potter(Quote)

Trump to endorse Romeny?

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/02/trump-set-to-endorse-romney/

Oh man, just when Romney seemed to have it all back together!
Maybe he could pay him off to keep him quiet.
I was really looking forward to a union of serially bankrupt Trump and serially divorced Gingrich. They could have put together quite a collection! Perhaps the egos just couldn’t coexist. Might have set off a chain reaction, producing enough stupid to consume all of known reality.

Got to love an ego big anough to announce his endorsement ahead of time. That’s usually reserved for real politicians. This is right down there with the LeBron 1-hour special! 😉
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 1:07 pm G(Quote)

Actually, if you read both of those articles AND the GOP rules I cited, you will see that they are making the SAME point I am making.

Newt is fully within his right to contest this particular rules violation. It really is no different than the same challenges that were addressed at the end of the 2008 Democratic Primary process.

The whole point of those articles was that Newt cannot contest those issues UNTIL the RNC convention in August of this year. So, ALL allocations remain what they are until the end. Obviously, the RNC establishment wants Romney and *not* Newt as their nominee, so of course they don’t want to see him pursue this challenge.

They are simply hoping that he is out of the race and that the matter is settled definitevely for Romney as the nominee prior to the convention, making the need for such legitimate contesting of the rules moot by the time he could actually bring up such challenges.

As your second article link pointed out:

All it takes is a registered Florida Republican to file a protest with the RNC, and the party’s contest committee would have to consider the issue when it meets in August just before the convention.

And your first article also reinforced this same point I just made:

A contest procedure exists for challenges to a state’s delegation or delegates. The RNC cannot consider any issue regarding Florida’s delegation unless and until a proper contest is brought.”

Even if there were a way to challenge proportionality for the RNC, no one in the state party has any interest. Lenny Curry, the state GOP chairman, on Thursday painted Gingrich’s campaign as sore losers for making the argument.
¦
whether they should be proportional an “unsettled question which will not be resolved until the Republican convention in Tampa this August.”
¦
McCollum said the challenge would be brought “to contest committee, then on convention floor.”

Your second article even went further and provided the analysis of how the allocation might change, if such a challenge were made at that time:

If Florida used the simplest possible proportional rules instead of “winner take all,” Romney would win 23 delegates from his 46 percent last night and Newt would win 16 ” reducing a 50-delegate margin to just seven in one fell swoop. Problem is, the RNC’s already punished Florida once for moving its primary up by taking half its delegates away; if they forced them to go proportional on top of that, it would be an additional sanction. So, to compromise, they could in theory restore all of Florida’s delegates and then award those proportionally. That would mean, obviously, 46 for Mitt and 32 for Newt for a margin of 14. Team Mitt will battle to preserve the current “winner take all” scenario, but as we get closer to the convention, Florida pols will inevitably start demanding that all of the state’s delegates be seated notwithstanding its violation of RNC rules. (The same thing happened in the 2008 Democratic primary between Obama and Hillary, you may remember. Eventually the full Florida delegation was reinstated when the results of the primary became immaterial to Obama’s overall victory.) It’d be hard for the RNC under any circumstances to ignore claims that it’s disenfranchising swing-state Floridians by penalizing the state, but the convention this year is in ¦ Tampa. Good luck telling half the Florida delegation to go home when they already are home. Which means if Mitt and Newt end up battling to the bitter end, the proportional scenario may be the compromise solution.

In summary, all of this only comes into play *IF* the race isn’t clearly settled by the time of the GOP convention *AND* if Newt is still in the “race” by that point.

Those are all big *ifs*. Romney has always been the assumed “defacto nominee” that the party will settle on for this cycle. That remains the default assumption.

All Romney has to do is obtain a clear threshold of delegates to become the nominee that falls outside of any legitimate allocation arguments, and these issues become moot. Right now, under the current interpretation of the rules, that threshold stands at 1143 delegates.

If any of the other 3 candidates (separately or combined) remain in the race and get enough delegates to deny Romney from obtaining a clear threshold win (or can make arguments such as FL that changes the threshold dynamic), then such issues may legitimately come up at the August convention and matter. But ONLY under such a scenario.

We are still too early in the process to know whether any of that will happen or matter. Newt is simply doing the smart thing from his campaign’s POV to push this issue (even now), to try to keep his supporters and make an argument that he’s still in this race.

By the time Super Tuesday completes, we should have the first real picture of knowing whether anyone else still has any chance to challenge or deny Romney a clear victory or not. Enough contests and delegates will be “allocated” by then to really assess where (and if) there are legitimate paths forward for whomever is trying to remain in the race at that point.

J. Potter: And it sounds like the RNC disagrees with you http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-presidential-primary/208249-gingrich-camp-challenging-florida-delegate-apportionmentNo expert on the party rules, but it sounds like the RNC is hands off. FL lost half of it delegates for going early, but the state party sets rules on apportionment.All a silly urination contest. So long as it isn’t wasting courtroom time!

J. Potter: and there’s more, more, more ¦http://wwwwakeupamericans-spree.blogspot.com/2012/02/newt-gingrich-and-florida-residents.htmlsetting up a lingering mess for August!You’d think the party would anticipate thies foolishness, and get its act together.
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 1:10 pm G(Quote)

Yeah, the Birthers are always good at annoying people with their SPAM. They simply lack the social awareness to realize when their actions are not helpful to their cause and more likely to backfire than persuade…

J. Potter: Oh, this is heartwarming:We Need To Show Our Support For Judge Malihi and Mr. Kemp!!!!Yes, pester them with well-meaning birther drool drops right up until the moment they do their jobs, er, that is, “stab you all in the back” There’s some amazingly longwinded links on the site’s righthand navigation.“Dummy’s guide to the 14th amendment” is anything but.“When will the birthers be happy?” made no attempt to answer that question.I want my money back.
Majority Will says:

February 2, 2012 at 1:18 pm Majority Will(Quote)

G:
Yeah, the Birthers are always good at annoying people with their SPAM.They simply lack the social awareness to realize when their actions are not helpful to their cause and more likely to backfire than persuade ¦

I think we can count on them to embarrass the Republican nominee as well as the RNC.

The birther crazy train will get only noisier and more obnoxious throughout the year.
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 1:19 pm G(Quote)

LMAO! Egads…!

Well, we’re just a few hours away from Trump making his “announcement”.

I’ll actually feel a bit sorry for Romney if he get’s tarred with Trump’s endorsement. Romney will be stuck having to try to distance himself and duck media questions about that association…not an enviable position to be put in at all.

Trump’s endorsement is probably a worse case for ridicule and embarassment than Duke Cunningham’s prison endorsement of Gingrich…simply because Trump is more well known in the general public.

Wow…this GOP race just continues to be a never ending clown show circus!

J. Potter: Trump to endorse Romeny?
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/02/trump-set-to-endorse-romney/

Oh man, just when Romney seemed to have it all back together! Maybe he could pay him off to keep him quiet.
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 1:24 pm G(Quote)

Oh, don’t get me started on that LeBron 1-hour special… as a Clevelander, that is still quite a sore subject around these parts… Heck, we’re still P.O.’d at Art Modell for stealing the Browns away to Baltimore back in the late 90’s. In fact, people around here still say that they have to “Modell” or “take a Modell” if they feel the urge of a really nasty and painful “dump” coming on…

J. Potter: Got to love an ego big anough to announce his endorsement ahead of time. That’s usually reserved for real politicians. This is right down there with the LeBron 1-hour special!
Scientist says:

February 2, 2012 at 1:34 pm Scientist(Quote)

G: Trump’s endorsement is probably a worse case for ridicule and embarassment than Duke Cunningham’s prison endorsement of Gingrich, simply because Trump is more well known in the general public.

A Fox news poll taken back in September showed 6% were more likely to vote for a candidate because of Trump’s endorsement, while 31% were less likely.
J. Potter says:

February 2, 2012 at 2:25 pm J. Potter(Quote)

Romney makes a clarification ….
http://www.borowitzreport.com/2012/02/02/a-clarification-from-mitt-romney/

Some days, Borowitz is a bore, and somedays, he knocks it out of the park.

This is one of those days. 😉
Arthur says:

February 2, 2012 at 2:29 pm Arthur(Quote)

J. Potter: Some days, Borowitz is a bore, and somedays, he knocks it out of the park.

Very funny! Thanks for the link.
G says:

February 2, 2012 at 2:49 pm G(Quote)

LOL! That was a good one. “TwoFaceBook”… priceless!

Also – I agree with your assessment of Borowitz too… often he is overrated, but he certainly delivers some real winners too…

J. Potter: Romney makes a clarification .http://www.borowitzreport.com/2012/02/02/a-clarification-from-mitt-romney/Some days, Borowitz is a bore, and somedays, he knocks it out of the park.This is one of those days.
aarrgghh says:

February 2, 2012 at 3:53 pm aarrgghh(Quote)

G: Yeah, the Birthers are always good at annoying people with their SPAM.They simply lack the social awareness to realize when their actions are not helpful to their cause and more likely to backfire than persuade.

did anyone remember to give “mike” kemp’s and malihi’s email addresses before he got baned?
aarrgghh says:

February 2, 2012 at 4:11 pm aarrgghh(Quote)

trump gives his nod to romney, via freepertown:

“What? FREEPERS were cheering that he was going to endorse Newt and calling him a great conservative. I wonder if the FREEPERS will change their tone now.”
Keith says:

February 2, 2012 at 10:10 pm Keith(Quote)

Look mommy! That man isn’t wearing any clothes!

Anonymous Hacks Neo-Nazis, Finds Ron Paul
misha says:

February 2, 2012 at 10:28 pm misha(Quote)

Keith: Look mommy! That man isn’t wearing any clothes!

I’ve been saying all along, he and Rand are anti-Semites:
http://newyorkleftist.blogspot.com/2010/05/asshole-of-year.html
Arthur says:

February 2, 2012 at 11:28 pm Arthur(Quote)

Interesting site, Keith; thanks for the link.
JPotter says:

February 3, 2012 at 12:52 am JPotter(Quote)

Doc, sorry to hear about the stone. Been there. Hoping for a quick passage! 😉
Majority Will says:

February 3, 2012 at 7:12 am Majority Will(Quote)

Reminder: Trump’s A Birther Whose Endorsement Won’t Really Help

(excerpt) He’s As Much Of A Birther As He Ever Was — Not even the release of President Obama’s long-form birth certificate has swayed Trump from his role as the most famous face on the movement that claims the occupant of the White House is a foreign-born fraud. In October, Trump’s spokesperson told me “I don’t know” if the long-form certificate is real. Trump himself told Piers Morgan that he thinks the certificate is “a forgery” during that same week.

(source: http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/02/reminder-donald-trump-is-a-birther-whose-endorsement-wont-help-the-gop-nominee.php_)
Scientist says:

February 3, 2012 at 8:50 am Scientist(Quote)

Today’s job numbers for January were unreservedly positive. Similarly positive numbers over the next few months will pretty much seal Obama’s re-election. In that even, what will Romney have to campaign on?
misha says:

February 3, 2012 at 1:47 pm misha(Quote)

Scientist: Today’s job numbers for January were unreservedly positive. Similarly positive numbers over the next few months will pretty much seal Obama’s re-election.

The stock market is also climbing. Intrade has Obama at 56%.
justlw says:

February 3, 2012 at 5:20 pm justlw(Quote)

I haven’t seen it here yet — Malihi decided against the plaintiffs. Decision here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/80417613/Farrar-Welden-Swensson-Powell-v-Obama-Judge-Malihi-Final-Decision-Georgia-Ballot-Challenge-2-3-2012
G says:

February 3, 2012 at 7:12 pm G(Quote)

It has now been posted on several of the threads here and Dr. C. has now also put up an official blog post on it too.

justlw: I haven’t seen it here yet — Malihi decided against the plaintiffs. Decision here:http://www.scribd.com/doc/80417613/Farrar-Welden-Swensson-Powell-v-Obama-Judge-Malihi-Final-Decision-Georgia-Ballot-Challenge-2-3-2012
y_p_w says:

February 6, 2012 at 10:45 am y_p_w(Quote)

I was thinking about the whole concept of natural born citizenship overseas by being born to one or two US citizen parents.

Of course being born on US soil renders one a natural born citizen for Presidential eligibility purposes. Unless using birther logic, but that’s been discussed to death. Then one born overseas to US parents is also a natural born citizen. However, there are documents that provide prima facie evidence of this, namely a certified birth certificate (issued by a local or state vital records office) for those born on US soil, and a Consular Report of Birth Abroad (or several previous document titles) issued by the State Department.

However, there exists a few specific cases where by statute US territories don’t automatically confer US citizenship, but do automatically confer US nationality. One born in American Samoa or Swains Island (it really tiny) are automatically considered US nationals but would require a US citizen parent to be considered a US citizen at birth. The same goes for the Panama Canal Zone (which had a really convoluted policy), which would bring up an interesting dilemma for McCain.

The US government directly issues birth certificates for American Samoa and for the Panama Canal Zone. The State Dept specifically notes that they don’t issue the Consular Report of Birth Abroad for anyone born in a US territory. So exactly what prima facie evidence is there of US citizenship at birth? That Panama Canal Zone birth certificate might confer US nationality for getting a passport, but the following says that one’s parents had to have previously resided in the US to confer US nationality on their child.

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-45104/0-0-0-45717.html

It also brings up some interesting questions about what happens if a US national who isn’t a US citizen has a child born abroad. Maybe there’s something to address the nationality of the child, but I haven’t seen it. Obviously the Consular Report of Birth Abroad shouldn’t apply, because that only confers US citizenship. However, most consular officials just accept a US passport, which in fact doesn’t mention whether or not one is a US citizen. I’m not kidding. Anyone with a US passport can see that there’s nothing in there that says whether or not the passport holder is a US citizen; it strictly refers to the holder as a US national. I’m not sure if maybe they might require an additional affidavit from the parents for the Consular Report of Birth Abroad, or if they even have a special category for non-citizen nationals.

So McCain wouldn’t necessarily have a document that show US citizenship at birth unless that specific birth certificate requires that the parents must list their citizenship. I’m not even sure he could legally establish the right to vote in Arizona if he had to.
y_p_w says:

February 6, 2012 at 11:10 am y_p_w(Quote)

Oh – here’s something interesting. Arizona requires that one must be a US citizen to vote and show so-called proof of citizenship to register vote. Some of the documents they request don’t necessarily describe US citizenship.

http://www.azsos.gov/election/voterregistration.htm#Proof

If you have an Arizona driver license or non-operating identification issued after October 1, 1996, write the number in box 9 on the front of the Arizona Voter Registration form.

This part is interesting because one doesn’t need to be a US citizen to get a drive license. One doesn’t even need to be a parament resident to get an Arizona driver license. All that’s needed is proof of legal status in the US.

http://mvd.azdot.gov/mvd/formsandpub/viewPDF.asp?lngProductKey=1410&lngFormInfoKey=1410

They list three categories which are for foreign nationals with a right to live in the US.

In addition to that, an acceptable document includes a US passport, which I’ve figured doesn’t necessarily demonstrate proof of citizenship per se. They also allow for photocopies of a passport page or birth certificate, but require that naturalization papers must be submitted in person.
Rickey says:

February 6, 2012 at 11:12 am Rickey(Quote)

For those who like to follow the polls, Obama’s job approval rating is back up to 50% in the latest ABC/Washington Post poll. Approve: 50% Disapprove: 46%

http://pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm

In the same poll he has a 6-point lead over Romney, 51%-45%.

http://pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm
misha says:

February 6, 2012 at 11:31 am misha(Quote)

Rickey: In the same poll he has a 6-point lead over Romney, 51%-45%.

Intrade has Obama at 57%. Suck on that birthers.
Scientist says:

February 6, 2012 at 12:15 pm Scientist(Quote)

I found this article interesting in view of the endless discussion of the meaning of various phrases within the Constitution that seem to have little connection with the modern world. The article discusses how the US Constitution has lost its former status as a model document for other countries, to a large extent because it is seen as an ossified document that is almost impossible to amend and update. One law professor compared it to Windows 3.1. Certainly the natural born citizen clause is emblematic of the archaic nature of the document.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/07/us/we-the-people-loses-appeal-with-people-around-the-world.html

I have to say that I am often frustrated, not just by the birthers, but also by those anti-birthers who cite back at them “origiinal intent”. The article notes a letter from Jefferson to Madison that “every constitution naturally expires after 19 years”. Certainly, the natural born citizen clause has passed that expiry date. Perhaps it’s worth a moment to consider whether the time spent arguing over its meaning wouldn’t be better spent updating the source code.
y_p_w says:

February 6, 2012 at 3:00 pm y_p_w(Quote)

Thinking again about California birth certificates. There’s still an heirloom birth certificate law on the books, but I see no mention of it on the California Dept of Public Health website. It was entered into law at a time when anyone could order a birth certificate.

http://articles.latimes.com/1989-07-27/news/mn-186_1_legal-birth-certificate

And here’s the specific law on the requirements for vital records paper from the California Health and Safety Code:

http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/cgi-bin/displaycode?section=hsc&group=103001-104000&file=103525-103590

103526.5. (a) Each certified copy of a birth, death, or marriage
record issued pursuant to Section 103525 shall include the date
issued, the name of the issuing officer, the signature of the issuing
officer, whether that is the State Registrar, local registrar,
county recorder, or county clerk, or an authorized facsimile thereof,
and the seal of the issuing office.
(b) All certified copies of birth, death, and marriage records
issued pursuant to Section 103525 shall be printed on chemically
sensitized security paper that measures 8 1/2 inches by 11 inches and
that has the following features:
(1) Intaglio print.
(2) Latent image.
(3) Fluorescent, consecutive numbering with matching barcode.
(4) Microprint line.
(5) Prismatic printing.
(6) Watermark.
(7) Void pantograph.
(8) Fluorescent security threads.
(9) Fluorescent fibers.
(10) Any other security features deemed necessary by the State
Registrar.
(c) The State Registrar, local registrars, county recorders, and
county clerks shall take precautions to ensure that uniform and
consistent standards are used statewide to safeguard the security
paper described in subdivision (b), including, but not limited to,
the following measures:
(1) Security paper shall be maintained under secure conditions so
as not to be accessible to the public.
(2) A log shall be kept of all visitors allowed in the area where
security paper is stored.
(3) All spoilage shall be accounted for and subsequently destroyed
by shredding on the premises.

I personally experienced “spoliage” when a county employee pulled up the wrong file and printed it before realizing it was the wrong document.

Also – I really want a copy of Bruce Lee’s birth certificate. That would be cool – especially framed along with a photo of him.
G says:

February 6, 2012 at 3:48 pm G(Quote)

That would definitely be cool!

y_p_w: Also – I really want a copy of Bruce Lee’s birth certificate. That would be cool – especially framed along with a photo of him.
y_p_w says:

February 6, 2012 at 4:18 pm y_p_w(Quote)

G:
That (Bruce Lee’s birth certificate) would definitely be cool!

I’ve never heard of anyone doing that. I’ve seen copies of Tom Cruise’s kid’s BC since California law says that anyone can get an informational copy. There are a bunch more since California birth records are public. I know some have ordered a copy of LeBron James’s BC from Ohio. His doesn’t even list his father. He’s obviously travelled on a passport, so I don’t think that was an issue.

I’m thinking of doing that the next time I’m in San Francisco. I’d certainly like to do it in person so they can maybe tell me they don’t actually have it before I pony up the cash. I could mail it in to them or to the California Dept of Public Health, but if they can’t locate a copy that means I’d be left playing for a fancy piece of paper (a “certificate of no record”) that says they can’t locate it.

Anyone want to try this?

http://www.sfdph.org/dph/comupg/records/vitalRec/default.asp
http://www.sfdph.org/dph/files/vitalRecsDocs/BirthMailApplication2012.pdf

http://www.cdph.ca.gov/certlic/birthdeathmar/Pages/default.aspx
http://www.cdph.ca.gov/pubsforms/forms/CtrldForms/VS111.pdf

His name was supposedly “BRUCE LEE” on the birth certificate, but I don’t know if he would have been assigned a middle name. His birth date as Nov 27, 1940, his father’s name was Lee Hoi-chuen Lee (names reversed from traditional Chinese) and his mother’s name was Grace Ho. Even if the details aren’t perfect, that should be enough data to conduct a search. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone else hadn’t tried.

If you see the movie Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story they have a scene where his father pulls out his birth certificate (from the Jackson Street Hospital, which is now known as Chinese Hospital), but it’s just the hospital one with the footprints. I think this might have been in an era when once could actually use that as an identity document.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gceI4ery1N4
y_p_w says:

February 6, 2012 at 9:02 pm y_p_w(Quote)

I’m still wondering what happens in the case of a non-citizen US national who tries to vote in an election or run for office.

I mean – a non-citizen US national has nearly every right that a US citizen has. One can freely travel/work within the US. However, there’s no solid documentary proof that one is a US citizen. We’re left with birth certificates and passports, which don’t shed much light because the rules are different. If you’re born in Arizona in 1975, you’re a US citizen. If you’re born in American Samoa in 1980 – maybe you’re a US citizen.

However, I don’t know if there’s really any kind of documentation that establishes that someone born in American Samoa or the Panama Canal Zone (i.e. McCain) is actually a citizen at birth. Maybe a non-citizen national US national becomes naturalized as a US citizen – that would establish citizenship after birth. A US passport wouldn’t make any distinction and the usual State Dept birth citizenship documents aren’t issued for births in any US territory. I don’t think their birth certificates make any note of the citizenship status of the parents.

Certainly a passport indicating birth in a US state or other territory (Guam, Puerto Rico, etc) would establish birthright US citizenship.

It would be an interesting thing to this ever come up – let’s say some Samoan kid comes to the mainland US.and eventually wants to run for Congress. They’re eligible for a US passport with just a birth certificate. They’re eligible to work. What if the kid doesn’t even know about the citizenship of the parents?
Arthur says:

February 7, 2012 at 3:26 pm Arthur(Quote)

True to form, commentators at Obama Release Your Records are blaming fear, bribery, and corruption for Secretary of State Kepm’s decision to accept Malihi’s recommendation:

“This country is screwed, the freakin corruption on the state level is as bad as it is on the federal level. States are going to have to start seceding because I have zero doubt that Obama/Soetoro will be placed back into office.”

“Well so horseheads and offshore accounts work.”

“Cowards top to bottom, spineless pansies who are afraid to stand up for the constitution, Cowards who have to pass the buck since they haven’t the courage to stand up for what is right.”

“GA SOS really stands for Georgia Same Ole’ Sh&*?”

Some look to Joe Arpaio as their final hope:

“Now we can throw Kemp into the cesspool littered with cowards and treasonous bastards and move on to appellate courts. Kemp will regret that he didn’t wait until Sheriff Joe announces his findings on March 1.”

“i think that sheriff joe is the last chance for anything to move.”
Majority Will says:

February 7, 2012 at 3:34 pm Majority Will(Quote)

Arthur:
True to form, commentators at Obama Release Your Records are blaming fear, bribery, and corruption forSecretary of State Kepm’s decision to accept Malihi’s recommendation:

“This country is screwed, the freakin corruption on the state level is as bad as it is on the federal level. States are going to have to start seceding because I have zero doubt that Obama/Soetoro will be placed back into office.”

“Well so horseheads and offshore accounts work.”

“Cowards top to bottom, spineless pansies who are afraid to stand up for the constitution, Cowards who have to pass the buck since they haven’t the courage to stand up for what is right.”

“GA SOS really stands for Georgia Same Ole’ Sh&*?”

Some look to Joe Arpaio as their final hope:

“Now we can throw Kemp into the cesspool littered with cowards and treasonous bastards and move on to appellate courts. Kemp will regret that he didn’t wait until Sheriff Joe announces his findings on March 1.”

“i think that sheriff joe is the last chance for anything to move.”

Leopold von Sacher-Masoch would be proud of these birther morons who must enjoy their self-inflicted misery.
Arthur says:

February 7, 2012 at 4:56 pm Arthur(Quote)

Majority Will: Leopold von Sacher-Masoch

Ah, the birther’s patron saint–he should go in Dr. C.’s bestiary.
Keith says:

February 7, 2012 at 6:26 pm Keith(Quote)

Scientist: The article discusses how the US Constitution has lost its former status as a model document for other countries, to a large extent because it is seen as an ossified document that is almost impossible to amend and update.

You wanna see a Constitution that is almost impossible to amend, you should read the Australian Constitution.

From the Wikipedia article on the Constitution of Australia:

Chapter VIII specifies the procedures for amending the Constitution. Section 128 provides that constitutional amendments must be approved by a referendum. Successful amendment requires:

* an absolute majority in both houses of the federal parliament; and
* the approval in a referendum of the proposed amendment by a majority of electors nationwide, and a majority in a majority of states.

You know how difficult it is to get an overall majority nationwide for a referendum? not very.
You know how difficult it is to get a majority in a majority of states? very

This is both good and bad. You really don’t want the Constitution changing every five minutes like the Constitutions of the various states in Australia, which don’t, in my opinion actually have Constitutions, just acts of State Parliament with the title on the top of the page (State Constitutions are amended by State Parliament without even any public discussion, let alone voting).

On the other hand, the Australian Constitution is not serving the nation all that well, and it would be nice if they could remove some of the ambiguities and overlapping responsibilities.

Australian civics discussions like to say that it is modeled after the US Constitution, but the only resemblance is that the two houses are called the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Keith says:

February 7, 2012 at 6:27 pm Keith(Quote)

I messed up the markup on my last post. Everything after the bullet points is my comments, not the Wiki article.
Scientist says:

February 7, 2012 at 6:53 pm Scientist(Quote)

Keith: Chapter VIII specifies the procedures for amending the Constitution. Section 128 provides that constitutional amendments must be approved by a referendum. Successful amendment requires:
* an absolute majority in both houses of the federal parliament; and
* the approval in a referendum of the proposed amendment by a majority of electors nationwide, and a majority in a majority of states

I’m not sure that’s harder than a 2/3 majority in both houses and 3/4 of state legislatures.

What rights does the Australian Constitution guarantee?

The Canadian Charter Rights and Freedoms, which the article lauded as a model, has several that are not specifically mentioned in the US Constitution, including:
Free assembly and association
A right to vote and serve in the legislature (note: not limited to natural born citizens, including for Prime Minister)
A right to legal counsel and to an interpreter in court
Strong guarantees or aboriginal rights
Paper says:

February 7, 2012 at 7:46 pm Paper(Quote)

As if actual corrupt politicians don’t have better things to do…

Arthur: True to form, commentators at Obama Release Your Records are blaming fear, bribery, and corruption for Secretary of State Kepm’s decision to accept Malihi’s recommendation:
Keith says:

February 7, 2012 at 7:51 pm Keith(Quote)

Scientist: What rights does the Australian Constitution guarantee?

That is a simple answer: none.

The courts have, from time to time, found ‘implied’ rights, such as free speech. But basically there are none. From time to time noise is made that Australia needs a Bill of Rights, but it is shouted down by the conservatives who insist that it will just put too much of a constraint on the government trying to govern properly.

And in the main, there is a pretty good protection of rights for everyday occurrences through legislation and convention, like freedom of the press (but the Government can stop stories about sensitive security issues and the Courts can and do limit reporting on active cases). But legislation and convention can be overthrown at any time by newer legislation, and discrimination and abuse can be legislated in at the will of the Government. Like dealing with asylum seekers by putting them in concentration camps, for example.
Keith says:

February 7, 2012 at 7:56 pm Keith(Quote)

Scientist: I’m not sure that’s harder than a 2/3 majority in both houses and 3/4 of state legislatures.

Australia only has 6 states however, 3 of which are always contrary. New South Wales and Victoria can muster a national majority between them, Queensland, Western Australia, and Tasmania can be counted on to vote contrary to what ever Victoria and NSW vote. Its just what they do.
y_p_w says:

February 8, 2012 at 12:02 pm y_p_w(Quote)

Speaking of better late than never, I found out where a reporter obtained a copy of Richard Nixon’s birth certificate in 2009.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/thedailymirror/2010/08/nixon-birthplace-revisited.html

Filed when he was 29. Not signed by an attendant or even a certifier per se. It was a delayed filing with a signature line specifically for the registrant. it’s some sort of special form that I’m guessing was common at the time due to haphazard registration in the early 20th century. It doesn’t list anything other than the approximate place of birth, the names of the parents, and that “oral evidence” was presented and stamped “COURT ORDER”.

Not sure why the reporter ordered from the California Dept of Public Health when a trip to the Orange County Clerk-Recorder would have been faster.
Arthur says:

February 9, 2012 at 1:58 am Arthur(Quote)

Article II Super PAC has the video of the Georgia hearing with cleaned up audio.
http://www.art2superpac.com/
misha says:

February 9, 2012 at 3:49 am misha(Quote)

Arthur: Article II Super PAC has the video of the Georgia hearing with cleaned up audio.

Thanks for the link.
I found an even better video!: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sShMA85pv8M
Arthur says:

February 9, 2012 at 5:01 am Arthur(Quote)

I got a big laugh out of the “Who’s On First” scene. It’s a classic, and still very funny.

What more laughs? Well, Dean Haskins has posted a piece that is ostensibly about Sheriff Joe’s oft-delayed report; however, Haskin’s real focus is excoriating Lady Liberty, a.k.a., Orly “Taser” Taitz. “There is no person or organization that has poisoned our efforts more than Orly Taitz has,” writes Haskins.

To get the full entertainment value, read the comments about Haskin’s critique that have been left at “Obama Release Your Records.” The birthers go at each other like hungry Orcs. Very amusing!

http://obamareleaseyourrecords.blogspot.com/2012/02/cold-case-posse-sources-has-sheriff.html#comment-form
bovril says:

February 9, 2012 at 8:05 am bovril(Quote)

Birfer Warz are almost as delicious as Birfer Tears…..
Dr. Conspiracy says:

February 9, 2012 at 9:23 pm Dr. Conspiracy(Quote)

Under the category of Over the Top, I offer this article from the Sonoran News

http://www.sonorannews.com/archives/2012/120208/guesteditorial-hollrah.html

Lady Justice has died

Historians might have viewed the events of Thursday, January 26, 2012 in Atlanta, Georgia, as one of the singular events of American history, along with landmark events such as Lincoln’s signing of the Emancipation Proclamation; Lee’s surrender at Appomattox; the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor; and the Supreme Court’s Brown v. Board of Education decision.
Majority Will says:

February 9, 2012 at 9:46 pm Majority Will(Quote)

Dr. Conspiracy:
Under the category of Over the Top, I offer this article from the Sonoran News

http://www.sonorannews.com/archives/2012/120208/guesteditorial-hollrah.html

FTFA:

“Since 2008, nearly 90 court cases have been filed, challenging Obama’s eligibility. All have fallen victim to either political correctness or political chicanery . . .”

The fetid stench of birther paranoia and bigotry is truly nauseating.
Nearly 90? And this mental giant kept referring to the hearing as a trial.
Actual facts are too pesky for birthers with an agenda. A mountain of verifiable, credible evidence can’t mean they’re wrong. Oh no. It MUST be an incredibly complex nefarious plot and corrupt officials.

Pathetic.
JPotter says:

February 10, 2012 at 2:05 am JPotter(Quote)

Another Orly masterpiece! It’s a fun day at the office when this comes across your desk:

http://www.orlytaitzesq.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Official-complaint-Indiana-elections-board.jpg

She believes she can have Obama removed in a fashion similar to Charlie White, recently convicted of voter fraud in Indiana … an ironic conviction for a Secretary of State!

She seems to think she can’t get Obama convicted of a felony in Indiana. Good luck as always.
Arthur says:

February 10, 2012 at 9:26 am Arthur(Quote)

Well, in case you just haven’t had enough of her, here’s Victoria Jackson interviewed at CPAC (no ukulele!): http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/09/victoria-jackson-cpac-_n_1267027.html?ref=politics
Dr. Conspiracy says:

February 10, 2012 at 3:36 pm Dr. Conspiracy(Quote)

Nancy Pelosi attacks Stephen Colbert:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lLH0fT3mbe0
Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter says:

February 10, 2012 at 3:51 pm Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter(Quote)

This new Internet Article may help explain the two citizen parent Birther’s aberrant mental behavior – – – Cacophony Fantastique’ – The Birther “Idee Fixe”:

http://birtherthinktank.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/cacophony-fantastique-the-birther-idee-fixe/

Squeeky Fromm
Girl Reporter
G says:

February 10, 2012 at 4:17 pm G(Quote)

That was hilarious!

Dr. Conspiracy: Nancy Pelosi attacks Stephen Colbert:http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lLH0fT3mbe0
G says:

February 10, 2012 at 4:30 pm G(Quote)

Excellent article, Squeeky! In fact, I think it was one of your best and most important to date. Kudos. Although current psychological designations have evolved many more specialized and detailed forms of this particular psychosis, your use of the older “Idee Fixe” is quite useful in putting a broader bow around the fixated delusions of denialism we constantly see from the Birtheristani.

For me, these particular portions of your excellent article really summed the issues up well:

I am sure most of us have marveled at the degree of apparent gross stupidity exhibited by the Birthers and no doubt have wondered how some of these people manage to feed themselves. We wonder how they can hold some of the beliefs that they do, such as the mis-interpretation of Minor v. Happersett, when all history post-MvH contradicts them. They appear able to read and construct sentences, but their logical functioning is practically non-existent. It is easy to suppose that they are simply lying and pretending to be that stupid. Yet, the concept of idee fixe recognizes that a victim may function perfectly well in all aspects of their life except for whatever has become the focus of their obsession.
…
Rather than question or fault our logic and debating skills, we need to realize that we are often not dealing with rational people. Most of us have sensed that, but now we can give a name to what is wrong . Not all Birthers are so afflicted. Some are no doubt simple opportunists, or attention-seekers. Another subset will probably consist of less-educated and ill-informed persons who are impressed with the legalistic Birther jargon and blather.
We must understand that our audience for the presentation of legal cites and case are those ill-informed persons. Because rationality and reason will work slowly, if at all, with the delusional. And the opportunistic Birther has no incentive to admit that he is wrong. Realizing the mental illness aspects of the Birthers dictate that rather than engage in those 1,000+ response threads that we have all fallen into, we should instead consider making a shorter statement of the relevant facts, and then withdraw from the debate.
…
All in all, I think we have a lot of thinking to do about this, and approaching it as a mental illness problem instead of argumentative problem may make us more successful. Realizing that we often are dealing with mentally ill persons may encourage us to decrease the amount of time we spend debating with them, and focus more on a good short knockout punch. Plus, we may help ourselves break-away from the prolonged circular argument cycle and keep us from becoming co-dependent with a bunch of maniacs.

Again, kudos on both diagnosis and also recommendations for how to deal with encountering it!

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter: This new Internet Article may help explain the two citizen parent Birther’s aberrant mental behavior – – – Cacophony Fantastique’ – The Birther “Idee Fixe”:http://birtherthinktank.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/cacophony-fantastique-the-birther-idee-fixe/Squeeky FrommGirl Reporter
Majority Will says:

February 10, 2012 at 4:41 pm Majority Will(Quote)

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter:
This new Internet Article may help explain the two citizen parent Birther’s aberrant mental behavior – – – Cacophony Fantastique’ – The Birther “Idee Fixe”:

http://birtherthinktank.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/cacophony-fantastique-the-birther-idee-fixe/

Squeeky Fromm
Girl Reporter

Rock on, Squeeky.
Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter says:

February 10, 2012 at 5:38 pm Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter(Quote)

Thank you G and Majority Will !!! I am gad you liked it. I plan on exploring this concept some more in the future because this whole Idee Fixe thingy scares me. If you think about it, it is kind of like what happened in Germany after World War I. The whole anti-Jew thing has gotten a lot of attention for being morally wrong, and maybe enough attention has not been paid to how the anti-Semitism was also factually wrong.

For example, the widespread belief that Jews stabbed Germany in the back and caused the loss, was not just immoral, but also grossly incorrect. From this thing I saw on The History Channel, the Germans lost for the same reasons the South lost the Civil War, namely being out-numbered and out-productioned. Pretty simple that the Good Guys could produce more guns, bullets, air-planes and stuff than the Germans.

But, the German people rejected the common sense and rational explanation and went off into anti-Jew LaLa Land. The TV show even had this part about how German scientists were measuring skulls, and head shape and stupid stuff like that to prove how the Germans were superior to all other races. Which kind of reminds me of Birthers scouring newspapers from the 1700’s looking for evidence to negate the 1898 Wong Kim Ark decision.

Which all is to kind of say that the Germans were not just morally wrong, but extremely delusional to boot. All this history stuff is very interesting.

Squeeky Fromm
Girl Reporter
RuhRoh says:

February 10, 2012 at 5:45 pm RuhRoh(Quote)

The folks over at Obamaballotchallenge have a post up that seems to be saying they have recruited Larry Klayman to lead ballot challenges in FL and CA (perhaps dependent upon raising $25K in the next 96 hours-the article is not very clearly written).

http://obamaballotchallenge.com/the-obama-defense-team-has-finally-met-its-match

I’m not sure whether this is a significant development or simply a fundraising ploy.
Keith says:

February 10, 2012 at 6:20 pm Keith(Quote)

Arthur:
Well, in caseyou just haven’t had enough of her, here’s Victoria Jackson interviewed at CPAC (no ukulele!): http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/09/victoria-jackson-cpac-_n_1267027.html?ref=politics

I’m starting to get the idea that Jackson is taking the p1ss. The lines she pushes are just too pat, too old, too repetitive. It has got to be her ‘act’.
Keith says:

February 10, 2012 at 6:25 pm Keith(Quote)

RuhRoh: I’m not sure whether this is a significant development or simply a fundraising ploy.

When is anything to with the promotion of birtherism ever not a fund raising ploy?
RuhRoh says:

February 10, 2012 at 6:34 pm RuhRoh(Quote)

Keith: When is anything to with the promotion of birtherism ever not a fund raising ploy?

True!

Adding Klayman to the mix won’t change the results of any eligibility challenges, but it will garner more publicity and probably even more money being funneled into the movement. Klayman’s a fairly well known RWNJ.
misha says:

February 10, 2012 at 6:34 pm misha(Quote)

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter: the widespread belief that Jews stabbed Germany in the back and caused the loss, was not just immoral, but also grossly incorrect.

A prime example: http://www.flickr.com/photos/bringinudownfromabove/4058598474/

The caption should be “He is to blame for the war.”
G says:

February 10, 2012 at 7:06 pm G(Quote)

A fair analogy and why the lessons of reality-based history should not be forgotten.

To bad that there are all these delusional revisionists out there… as you allude to, the very need for revisionism seems to be part of the Idee Fixe at play…

…And yes, it is both saddening and quite disturbing to see it play out…

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter: But, the German people rejected the common sense and rational explanation and went off into anti-Jew LaLa Land. The TV show even had this part about how German scientists were measuring skulls, and head shape and stupid stuff like that to prove how the Germans were superior to all other races. Which kind of reminds me of Birthers scouring newspapers from the 1700′s looking for evidence to negate the 1898 Wong Kim Ark decision.
Which all is to kind of say that the Germans were not just morally wrong, but extremely delusional to boot. All this history stuff is very interesting.
G says:

February 10, 2012 at 7:08 pm G(Quote)

She’s no Andy Kaufman.

She’s just that delusional and dumb in reality. The reason that there is barely any daylight between her “comedy act” and her RWNJ actions is because she is simply a one-trick pony. I think it is more appropriate to think of her as so ridiculous an individual in reality, that she simply gets mistaken for being a comedy act…

Keith: I’m starting to get the idea that Jackson is taking the p1ss. The lines she pushes are just too pat, too old, too repetitive. It has got to be her act’.
G says:

February 10, 2012 at 7:16 pm G(Quote)

Agreed. Obviously, at this point, it is yet another fundraising ploy. Should the gullible marks…er…Birthers be able to cobble together the $25 K ransom money for their grifter masters in the next week… then we’ll see if this latest propaganda farce has any legs beyond their own alarmist window of quickly closing opportunity…

RuhRoh: True! Adding Klayman to the mix won’t change the results of any eligibility challenges, but it will garner more publicity and probably even more money being funneled into the movement. Klayman’s a fairly well known RWNJ.

Keith: When is anything to with the promotion of birtherism ever not a fund raising ploy?

RuhRoh: The folks over at Obamaballotchallenge have a post up that seems to be saying they have recruited Larry Klayman to lead ballot challenges in FL and CA (perhaps dependent upon raising $25K in the next 96 hours-the article is not very clearly written).
http://obamaballotchallenge.com/the-obama-defense-team-has-finally-met-its-match
I’m not sure whether this is a significant development or simply a fundraising ploy.
Arthur says:

February 10, 2012 at 9:01 pm Arthur(Quote)

Post and Email reports that Walt Fitzpatrick was released from jail last night. The Republic is safe again.
Majority Will says:

February 10, 2012 at 9:08 pm Majority Will(Quote)

Arthur:
Post and Email reports that Walt Fitzpatrick was released from jail last night. The Republic is safe again.

He’s probably already tracking down jurors like Wile E. Coyote can’t resist trying to trap the Road Runner. Maybe painting a tunnel on a wall will slow Ol’ Walt down.
Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter says:

February 10, 2012 at 9:30 pm Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter(Quote)

Oh, here is another one I just kicked out. I sure wish George Soros paid by the word. Illinois Tells Birther Michael Jackson To “Beat It”!!!

http://birtherthinktank.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/ilinois-tells-birther-micahel-jackson-to-beat-it/

Some of you will probably like the music video in Note 3.

Squeeky Fromm
Girl Reporter
G says:

February 10, 2012 at 10:38 pm G(Quote)

Here’s an interesting study that WND reports to have commissioned… surprising to see them reporting something like this. WND doesn’t do honest news – they are nothing but a propaganda outlet… so I scratch my head in trying to assess what their real goal and intent is by actually releasing these findings, showing that, on average, over 20% of Republicans / conservatives plan to vote for Obama over any of the current crop of GOP candidates…

http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/20-of-republicans-leaning-to-obama/

Normally, WND would just sweep any commissioned report they didn’t like under the rug, like they did with several of the actual “expert” ones that told them there was nothing too their whole LFBC PDF fakery angles.

So, what can they possibly have to gain by revealing the findings of this study to their audience? The findings surely pour salt on the wounds of their constant ODS-flogging agenda. I can only surmise that they are concerned about turnout in the fall and think they can somehow use this to scare their audience into showing up at the polls… Still, it seems like the findings of their own commissioned report are nothing but downsides for them, regardless…
G says:

February 10, 2012 at 10:47 pm G(Quote)

LMAO!!! Yes Squeeky, you are definitely on a roll tonight! 🙂 From the WC Fields references to finding ways to put as many Michael Jackson song titles into your write-up… I was laughing so hard that my sides hurt!

…Thankfully, you wrapped things up with that very funky & groovy Big Daddy version of “Billie Jean”… that was a very soothing way to recover from my laughter pains. Thanks! 😉

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter: Oh, here is another one I just kicked out. I sure wish George Soros paid by the word. Illinois Tells Birther Michael Jackson To “Beat It”!!! http://birtherthinktank.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/ilinois-tells-birther-micahel-jackson-to-beat-it/Some of you will probably like the music video in Note 3.Squeeky FrommGirl Reporter
Arthur says:

February 10, 2012 at 10:48 pm Arthur(Quote)

G: over 20% of Republicans / conservatives plan to vote for Obama over any of the current crop of GOP candidates…

If accurate, that’s a surprising percentage. I wonder if those numbers will hold up to election day.
misha says:

February 10, 2012 at 11:03 pm misha(Quote)

I saw this on Gawker –
http://gawker.com/5884214/best-classified-ad-of-all-time-seeks-metal-band-mates-no-blacks

“All races are welcome except for blacks, so if you are black, pleae do not respond to this ad. I am not racist, it is a drug issue and a safety issue and I cannot have black people at my house.”

I sent him this e-mail:

“I’m so glad I found your band. Barack Obama was born in Kenya, and I have proof:

http://newyorkleftist.blogspot.com/2009/09/another-kenyan-birth-certificate.html ”
G says:

February 10, 2012 at 11:10 pm G(Quote)

I find those numbers quite surprising too…

There is so much unsettled between now and then, that I’m sure there will be several factors (both forseeable and unforseeable) that come into play to impact that equation. It certainly will be an area to monitor as time goes on…not just up to the election, but also in the post-election results.

Arthur: If accurate, that’s a surprising percentage. I wonder if those numbers will hold up to election day.
G says:

February 10, 2012 at 11:12 pm G(Quote)

Ah, the typical racist proclaiming that he’s “not a racist”…but…

It seems that the only thing racists hate more than minorities is being called out as “racist”…

misha: I saw this on Gawker –http://gawker.com/5884214/best-classified-ad-of-all-time-seeks-metal-band-mates-no-blacks“All races are welcome except for blacks, so if you are black, pleae do not respond to this ad. I am not racist, it is a drug issue and a safety issue and I cannot have black people at my house.”I sent him this e-mail:“I’m so glad I found your band. Barack Obama was born in Kenya, and I have proof:http://newyorkleftist.blogspot.com/2009/09/another-kenyan-birth-certificate.html ”
G says:

February 10, 2012 at 11:26 pm G(Quote)

From your link, I also found this current story, about a white-rap act at this year’s CPAC event, which seems to think a stunt play-on-words of “knickers” and the “n-word” is funny…

…Sure seemed to work for their audience… *sigh*

http://gawker.com/5884224/awful-white-rappers-drop-the-n-word-at-cpac-receive-applause-updated

misha: I saw this on Gawker –http://gawker.com/5884214/best-classified-ad-of-all-time-seeks-metal-band-mates-no-blacks“All races are welcome except for blacks, so if you are black, pleae do not respond to this ad. I am not racist, it is a drug issue and a safety issue and I cannot have black people at my house.”I sent him this e-mail:“I’m so glad I found your band. Barack Obama was born in Kenya, and I have proof:http://newyorkleftist.blogspot.com/2009/09/another-kenyan-birth-certificate.html ”
Keith says:

February 11, 2012 at 5:52 am Keith(Quote)

G:
Agreed.Obviously, at this point, it is yet another fundraising ploy.Should the gullible marks…er…Birthers be able to cobble together the $25 K ransom money for their grifter masters in the next week… then we’ll see if this latest propaganda farce has any legs beyond their own alarmist window of quickly closing opportunity…

Oh For Goodness Sake sums the problem pretty thoroughly:

Twenty-five thousand Birther dollars for a guy who sued his own mother, who was suffering from dementia at the time; is under indictment in Ohio for criminal non-support of his children; was banned for life from a California courtroom; had his law license suspended by the Disciplinary Board of the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania; accused by Judicial Watch of misappropriating more than $200,000; and sanctioned and reprimanded by the Supreme Court of Florida, on behalf of the Florida Bar, only six months ago, this stemming from the last time he screwed somebody out of a $25,000 retainer.

He wrote the Florida Bar, after the amount was mediated down to $5,000:

I have and have had very little funds, as my financial situation continues to be dire. I do not own any investments or retirement plans and just have a few pieces of jewelry and clothing, a television, a radio, a bed and clothing and shoes. I rent my apartment. The jewelry is a watch which is of negligible value, and consists of a watch and a ring valued currently under $200.00.
misha says:

February 11, 2012 at 6:30 am misha(Quote)

RuhRoh: The folks over at Obamaballotchallenge have a post up that seems to be saying they have recruited Larry Klayman

Keith: Twenty-five thousand Birther dollars for a guy who sued his own mother, who was suffering from dementia at the time

Larry Klayman not only sued his own mother, but took it to trial! Klayman calls himself a Messianic Jew. I have a more accurate description: A latter day concentration camp capo.
Majority Will says:

February 11, 2012 at 7:22 am Majority Will(Quote)

G:
Here’s an interesting study that WND reports to have commissioned…surprising to see them reporting something like this.WND doesn’t do honest news – they are nothing but a propaganda outlet… so I scratch my head in trying to assess what their real goal and intent is by actually releasing these findings, showing that, on average, over 20% of Republicans / conservatives plan to vote for Obama over any of the current crop of GOP candidates…

http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/20-of-republicans-leaning-to-obama/

Normally, WND would just sweep any commissioned report they didn’t like under the rug, like they did with several of the actual “expert” ones that told them there was nothing too their whole LFBC PDF fakery angles.

So, what can they possibly have to gain by revealing the findings of this study to their audience?The findings surely pour salt on the wounds of their constant ODS-flogging agenda.I can only surmise that they are concerned about turnout in the fall and think they can somehow use this to scare their audience into showing up at the polls…Still, it seems like the findings of their own commissioned report are nothing but downsides for them, regardless…

Argumentum ad metum

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_fear)

Farah’s Playbook:
http://www.emagill.com/rants/eblog114a.html

See examples of appeal to fear in #9. Note the satire in the last line.
Dr. Conspiracy says:

February 11, 2012 at 11:42 am Dr. Conspiracy(Quote)

Article of interest:

http://www.newser.com/story/139475/breitbart-i-have-college-days-obama-videos.html

Andrew Breitbart says of a video he has:

Breitbart said the videos will show how Obama met “a bunch of silver ponytails” such as Bill Ayers and his wife, Bernadine Dohm, “and the rest of us slept as they plotted and plotted” a takeover of the presidency.
John Potter says:

February 11, 2012 at 1:19 pm John Potter(Quote)

Speaking of articles of interest and articles at WND, if anyone missed it here’s Corsi’ lates double-down on Arpaio’s report, full of the usual assurances and laughable claims:

http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/d-day-set-for-sheriff-joe-on-obama-eligibility/

The report is now due March 1—save the date!—pushed back from “sometime in February” .. how does a sheriff know in advance when an investigation will be completed, if truly open-ended and considering all possibilities?

Corsi would have you believe 3000 volunteers are out there beating the bushes. I didn’t know bushes grew online.

A pitch for funds and assurances that the Posse is a 501(c)3 organization. Love to see that charter!

I would never suspect this charade is constructed to pad Arpaio’s own legal defense fund. Never.
G says:

February 11, 2012 at 3:01 pm G(Quote)

Thanks for sharing that, Majority Will!

The list of types of Logical Fallacies found in arguments by E. Magill was excellent. I rate it as a “must read”.

E. Magill did two follow-up articles to that one, which include more types of Logical Fallacy that often come up in conversations and politics:

http://www.emagill.com/rants/eblog156a.html

http://www.emagill.com/rants/eblog170a.html

You already brought up the apt Argumentum ad metum…and the article covers many other types we are quite familiar with (straw man argument, circular reasoning, etc.).

The original article even directly mentions Birthers as an example under #5 – THE UNFALSIFIABLE HYPOTHESIS/SPECIAL PLEADING.

However, instead of pointing out the various types of Logical Fallacy we’ve seen on display from Birtherism, I instead would like to end this post with the best wisdom from all these articles:

We all make logical fallacies, and we all fall for them. What’s important is that we stay vigilant against them, assuming we are interested in debating in good faith and looking for the untarnished truth.

Indeed!

Majority Will: Argumentum ad metum(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_fear)Farah’s Playbook:http://www.emagill.com/rants/eblog114a.htmlSee examples of appeal to fear in #9. Note the satire in the last line.
Majority Will says:

February 11, 2012 at 3:13 pm Majority Will(Quote)

G:
Thanks for sharing that, Majority Will!

The list of types of Logical Fallacies found in arguments by E. Magill was excellent.I rate it as a “must read”.

E. Magill did two follow-up articles to that one, which include more types of Logical Fallacy that often come up in conversations and politics:

http://www.emagill.com/rants/eblog156a.html

http://www.emagill.com/rants/eblog170a.html

You already brought up the apt Argumentum ad metum…and the article covers many other types we are quite familiar with (straw man argument, circular reasoning, etc.).

The original article even directly mentions Birthers as an example under #5 – THE UNFALSIFIABLE HYPOTHESIS/SPECIAL PLEADING.

However, instead of pointing out the various types of Logical Fallacy we’ve seen on display from Birtherism, I instead would like to end this post with the best wisdom from all these articles:

Indeed!

I thought you would like that. 😀
Majority Will says:

February 11, 2012 at 3:15 pm Majority Will(Quote)

Without logical fallacies, birther lawyers and scammers like Apuzzo and Donofrio would be mute.
G says:

February 11, 2012 at 3:17 pm G(Quote)

Here’s another source that I thought covered this situation with appropriate disdain. (and also Breitbart totally losing it when he tries to goad OWS protesters outside of CPAC).

http://www.rumproast.com/index.php/site/comments/cpac_video_breitbart_completely_loses_it_at_ows_demonstrators_outside/

Breitbart truly is an absolute turd stain of a human being.

Dr. Conspiracy: Article of interest:http://www.newser.com/story/139475/breitbart-i-have-college-days-obama-videos.htmlAndrew Breitbart says of a video he has:Breitbart said the videos will show how Obama met “a bunch of silver ponytails” such as Bill Ayers and his wife, Bernadine Dohm, “and the rest of us slept as they plotted and plotted” a takeover of the presidency.
G says:

February 11, 2012 at 3:28 pm G(Quote)

So, how many “pushbacks” of the “big reveal” date does this now make? Wasn’t it originally sometime in October? (The original Tea-Party Birther event with Arpaio actually took place back in August, if I recall…)

It seems it got pushed back to various times in November, December, by the end of the year / early in January, by February, sometime in February…and now March 1st…

LOL!

I really think Arpaio is trapped here and originally thought he was able to simply pull his traditional pandering and that would be the end of it. He’s been continuously pushing back a report date, in hopes that this can just be forgotten and blow over with time. It surely has backfired on him, as the Birthers have only become increasingly fixated and desperate for his report to be their “Great White Hope”…

Expect them to end up throwing him under the bus, when his “findings” turn out to be nothing more than the same cr@pola they’ve already fed to his Cold Case Posse and when it becomes clear (even to them) that he doesn’t have any legal avenue to do anything about their claims…

…Then again, there are BIrthers that still remain Trump fans out there… even though Trump never gave them “followup” on his promise that “you wouldn’t believe what my investigators in HI are finding”…

So, I’m sure that Arpaio thinks he can simply get away with pulling the same type of hyped snow-job on them that Trump did…

John Potter: The report is now due March 1—save the date!—pushed back from “sometime in February” .. how does a sheriff know in advance when an investigation will be completed, if truly open-ended and considering all possibilities?
John Potter says:

February 11, 2012 at 3:32 pm John Potter(Quote)

G: Breitbart truly is an absolute turd stain of a human being.

My son’s judgment: “That guy’s a retard”.

I’m taking his words to heart and quietly meditating, trying to learn to “BEHA-A-A-AVE [MY]SELF” and to “STOP RAPING PEOPLE!” That second one will be hard. Habits can be tough. And what about accidental people raping? Can’t even joke about the guy without sounding foul!

Thanks for sharing that G! He does have a gift for working in buzz words by the car load! And for telling a crowd exactly what they want to hear.
G says:

February 11, 2012 at 3:40 pm G(Quote)

LOL! Tell your son I think he summarized it well. 😉

John Potter: My son’s judgment: “That guy’s a retard”.I’m taking his words to heart and quietly meditating, trying to learn to “BEHA-A-A-AVE [MY]SELF” and to “STOP RAPING PEOPLE!” That second one will be hard. Habits can be tough. And what about accidental people raping? Can’t even joke about the guy without sounding foul!Thanks for sharing that G! He does have a gift for working in buzz words by the car load! And for telling a crowd exactly what they want to hear.
Keith says:

February 11, 2012 at 5:29 pm Keith(Quote)

G: I really think Arpaio is trapped here and originally thought he was able to simply pull his traditional pandering and that would be the end of it.

Agreed. Arpaio didn’t see it coming.
John Potter says:

February 11, 2012 at 6:52 pm John Potter(Quote)

Keith: Agreed. Arpaio didn’t see it coming.

He could double down and weasel out at the same time, by claiming to be the victim of harrassment and stonewalling. The braindead would buy it … but it wouldn’t help his standing with the Feds! 😉
Arthur says:

February 11, 2012 at 7:23 pm Arthur(Quote)

G: Here’s another source that I thought covered this situation with appropriate disdain. (and also Breitbart totally losing it when he tries to goad OWS protesters outside of CPAC).

God, I wish I knew how to autotune; I’d love to remix Breitbottom’s rant into dubstep.

What’s a dubstep autotune sound like? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b369Pt48MVY
Daniel says:

February 11, 2012 at 7:25 pm Daniel(Quote)

Majority Will:
Without logical fallacies, birther lawyers and scammers like Apuzzo and Donofrio would be mute.

… instead of just moot.
Majority Will says:

February 11, 2012 at 8:49 pm Majority Will(Quote)

Daniel: … instead of just moot.

I’d like to see them held accountable for lying and pretending to be competent legal authorities.
Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter says:

February 11, 2012 at 9:20 pm Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter(Quote)

Thanks G, I am glad it made you laugh. I am really working to catch up from my 2 month Birther vacay. Thank God an undercover Obot sent me some Sooper Sekrit Birther information so all I had to do was cut and paste. Cause it really wasn’t me that wrote this. I swear it wasn’t. It is a real live genuine Birther thingy. LOL. I just can not believe some of the stuff they are up to:

http://birtherthinktank.wordpress.com/2012/02/11/the-second-book-of-judges-updates-to-the-birther-bible/

Squeeky Fromm
Girl Reporter
G says:

February 11, 2012 at 10:26 pm G(Quote)

Another excellent rendition and worthy addition to “The Birther Bible”, Squeeky!

I enjoyed it very much. Coincidentally, Doc C. had just posted a new blog topic covering similar territory, so I recommend that to you…and also have cross-posted your latest blog post on that one:

http://www.obamaconspiracy.org/2012/02/the-dog-ate-my-attorney/

On a sad coincidental note, while your last article dealt with a pop star musician that died way too young, as I type, I’m listening to the sad news of another who just passed away – Whitney Houston – at the young age of 48…

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter: Thanks G, I am glad it made you laugh. I am really working to catch up from my 2 month Birther vacay. Thank God an undercover Obot sent me some Sooper Sekrit Birther information so all I had to do was cut and paste. Cause it really wasn’t me that wrote this. I swear it wasn’t. It is a real live genuine Birther thingy. LOL. I just can not believe some of the stuff they are up to:http://birtherthinktank.wordpress.com/2012/02/11/the-second-book-of-judges-updates-to-the-birther-bible/Squeeky FrommGirl Reporter
John Potter says:

February 12, 2012 at 1:45 am John Potter(Quote)

A Treatise on Citizenship by Birth and by Naturalization
Alexander Porter Morse, 1881, 411pgs

Something new from a favorite Scribd source! A mammoth treatise on citizenship from the early days of the gilded age. While not new to veteran Obot researchers, it’s a great source for all Obots. Reading it is like hearing a voice of the past answer all the birther’s arguments. And though dated, it does serve to prove that not only are birthers wrong about a great many thing, but they’ve been wrong about them for a loooooooong time.

Of particular interest is Appendix A, p. 324:
Eligibility and Title to Office in the United States and is the Several States of the Union

Read in conjunction with Margaret Mikyung Lee’s CRS Report for Congress:
Birthright Citizenship Under the14th Amendment of Persons Born in the United States to Alien Parents

… a report which predates birtherism, and written in response to concern over illegal aliens, made for a great night. Lee’s report dated 2010 here, dates to at least 2006 at a UNT site. Lee’s report hilariously anticipates the difficulties of enforcing the Vattelist Birther vision, as she writes about various proposals to amend citizenship then floating around Congress.

Vattelism: Same Old Crap with a New Name

Doing a google search for “Birthright Citizenship 14th Amendment United States Alien Parents” returns a ton of interesting material*, particularly from the heated immigration debates from Bush’s second term. Looking over it, I’d suggest direct ancestry of those debates to the Vattel strain of birtherism, with all its fixation over “anchor babies”.

This one—“Defining American” by James C. Ho, from 2006—has a great ending: “Stay tuned: Dred Scott II may soon be coming to a federal court near you.”

Some fun stuff to throw in the face the next birther you meet.

_________________________

* Including a lot of xenophobic, original intenter crap.
G says:

February 12, 2012 at 2:09 am G(Quote)

Well, the 1st half of the Feb voting contests have concluded, so as promised, time for my updated report on the state of the GOP race:

NV: 1-Mitt (50%), 2-Newt (21%), 3-Ron (19%), 4-Rick (10%)
CO: 1-Rick (40%), 2-Mitt (35%), 3-Newt (13%), 4-Ron (12%)
MN: 1-Rick (45%), 2-Ron (27%), 3-Mitt (17%), 4 -Newt (11%)
MO: 1-Rick (55%), 2-Mitt (25%), 3-Ron (12%), (Newt not on ballot)
ME: 1-Mitt (39%), 2-Ron (26%), 3-Rick (18%), 4-Newt (6%)

And in the CPAC straw poll earlier today, the results were:

1-Mitt (38%), 2-Rick (31%), 3-Newt (15%), 4-Ron (12%)

Summary Analysis:

We now have 9 state contests reporting and the win scoreboard is as follows:

Rick (4), Mitt (4), Newt (1), Ron (0)

After Romney regained some momentum by winning FL and NV, Santorum pulled off a surprising hat-trick of 3 impressive wins in CO, MO, and MN, again putting Romney’s theme of “inevitability in doubt. However, the weekend’s back-to-back wins at CPAC and in ME give Romney’s campaign a chance to breathe a sigh of relief.

The main contests coming up are MI & AZ on Feb 28th. There will also be a US territitorial contest for 9 delegates before then (now being reported as Guam on 2/18… although conflicting reports have said the North Mariana Islands.) The final contest before Super Tuesday on March 6th will be WA on March 3rd.

As of now, there is one public debate on the schedule, on Feb 22nd. Look for that to be one of the main final shapers of the dynamic going into MI & AZ.

Where things stand now, both MI and AZ are strongly favored for Romney to win. However, Santorum has shown the ability to appeal and win over the mid-west & Great Lakes region, so he also should be considered a serious contender for MI. With its significant Morman population, it is also widely expected that Romney should deliver results there similar to what he did in NV. That being said, Romney was also expected to easily walk-away with CO…but he lost that one to Santorum.

The big winner of the week would have to remain Santorum, with Romney only coming in with a status of trying to recover and save face. Until a new dynamic (always possible in this unpredictable year) takes affect, Feb has shifted the focus of the contest to Santorum now being the main challenger to frontrunner Romney.

Both Gingrich and Paul’s fortunes currently seem badly damaged by their inabilities to win any of these Feb contests and therefore, their window of relevance has become quite narrow.

While there is talk about Gingrich making a push for AZ, his main base of support so far has been in the south and his best hopes of another win is still GA, which isn’t until Super-Tuesday. If Newt can hold on to win GA, he still has a chance to make yet another come back argument by demonstrating that his brand of campaign retains support in the Southern states. If Newt can’t win his “home state” of GA, his campaign hopes can be legitimately considered over, regardless of whether he accepts that reality or not.

For Paul, his 2nd place finishes in MN & ME were quite respectable, but we’re quickly reaching the point where that is simply not enough to justify a serious campaign for much longer. Had he been able to eek out a win in either of those states, his campaign would have an argument for potentially broadening their base and becoming a credible challenge in more areas. Without any state wins at this point, he’s got very few “favorable” states coming up in the near term, in which he still has a serious chance to prove himself. WA (Mar 3) and AK, ND, VT (Mar 6) are the most favorable coming up for his support.

Had he captured MN or ME, these others would have been perceived as possible pick-ups for him as well…and all of a sudden, he would be back in this race. However, he’s had several chances now (IA, MN & ME) where he had the dominant ground game and a Caucus format favorable to him and hasn’t been able to convert that into a win. His odds are now discounted in WA…and if he can’t pull of an upset there, he’s just further damaged his chances for the Super-Tuesday states. Like Gingrich, if he can’t demonstrate another win between now and then, he’s effectively done, regardless of his desire to continue past then.

Then again, momentum has continuously shifted and surprised in this race. If “Angry Newt” show up at the Feb 22nd debate, fortunes could shift in his favor again. I really suspect that Newt suffers from some sort of real mania, which tends to go in emotional cycles. If he was just a politician, he’d know which Newt to bring to his different audiences. “Angry Newt” gave him the victory in SC. “Professor Newt” cost him FL. CPAC was yet another missed opportunity for him, with “Professor Newt” showing up instead of “Angry Newt”…and so expect his polling to continue downward unless “Angry Newt” can show up in time to rescue him once again.

Therefore, the main question continues to be the same one since this began – is unlimited money and Establishment backing enough to force a bland and unlikeable “Meg Whitman” candidate onto the base as “inevitable”…or is his appeal and prospects so truly weak, that someone else can still pull off an upset? Only the actual contest results will give us those answers. In the meantime, this remains a captivating race to follow…
Dr. Conspiracy says:

February 13, 2012 at 1:15 am Dr. Conspiracy(Quote)

Site traffic is declining from the recent peak around the Georgia ballot hearing. It’s still above pre-hearing averages with about 1100 visitors a day.
G says:

February 13, 2012 at 1:18 am G(Quote)

You have to also take into account that all of the recent technical issues and downtime situation have likely impacted visitation as well…

Dr. Conspiracy: Site traffic is declining from the recent peak around the Georgia ballot hearing. It’s still above pre-hearing averages with about 1100 visitors a day.
John Potter says:

February 13, 2012 at 1:43 am John Potter(Quote)

G:
You have to also take into account that all of the recent technical issues and downtime situation have likely impacted visitation as well…

Yeah, but just not that much going on. A couple of birther promises to look forward to, Arpaio’s report, Haskins’ summit .. Arpaio will let us down, the summit will happen with a whimper. A slew of court case and ballot challenges, but they’ll get old fast. Expect an uptick as the election nears, but after the election? If Obama loses, this should die a quick death (birthers will gloat (maybe), certainly claim credit). If he wins, 4 more years of birthin’ and then eternal life in the conspiracy canon … to say nothing of the post-election jeremiads.
Dr. Conspiracy says:

February 13, 2012 at 1:44 am Dr. Conspiracy(Quote)

One should be cautions with Morse. He was the one who represented Louisiana in Plessy v Fergusun arguing that racial segregation is constitutional.

He also wrote in the Albany Law Journal in 1904:

If it was intended that anybody who was a citizen by birth should be eligible, it would only have been necessary to say, “no person, except a native-born citizen”; but the framers thought it wise, in view of the probable influx of European immigration, to provide that the president should at least be the child of citizens owing allegiance to the United States at the time of his birth. It may be observed in passing that the current phrase “native-born citizen” is well understood; but it is pleonasm and should be discarded; and the correct designation, “native citizen” should be substituted in all constitutional and statutory enactments, in judicial decisions and in legal discussions where accuracy and precise language are essential to intelligent discussion.

Indeed, Morse may be the only person in US History before 2008 to actually say such a thing.

Morse is talking nonsense about concerns over a “probable influx of European immigration.” In the late 18th century they were begging for European immigrants, and he basically expresses opinions rather than argument and authorities.

John Potter: A Treatise on Citizenship by Birth and by Naturalization
Alexander Porter Morse, 1881, 411pgs
John Potter says:

February 13, 2012 at 2:43 am John Potter(Quote)

Dr. Conspiracy: One should be cautions with Morse. He was the one who represented Louisiana in Plessy v Fergusun arguing that racial segregation is constitutional.

Doc, thanks for the caution and comments. I mentioned his writing because he provides plenty of references, and is a voice from a bygone age. He discusses citizenship from Greco-Roman times to now, and from an international perspective. He does refer to jus soli as “feudal” and jus sanguinis as “enlightened and freer”!

I should have noted that the Appendix of his 1881 work, which is particularly striking … was attributed by him to Desty. Every line there is cited. He presents the Appendix as a digest of contemporary US law. And it reads like a modern understanding, despite predating WKA.

His article in the Albany Law Journal, vol. 66 (“Natural-Born Citizen of the United States: Eligibility for the Office of President”), is odd in that it seems to pre-date WKA, making specific reference to status of Chinese children born here as being undecided, despite being published in 1904. I know it’s one of Puzo’ favorites, and it seems to counter his 1881 work. Perhaps it was a reaction to WKA and he had become cranky.

So yes, I should have more specifically endorsed the Appendix (by Desty) and cautioned on Morse.
misha says:

February 13, 2012 at 4:47 am misha(Quote)

White Nationalists Share Spotlight With GOP at CPAC

To explain the perils of multiculturalism and (nonwhite) immigration, the CPAC organizers have invited several avowed white nationalists—who will spew their bigotry in the same conference hall that will host speeches by Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul (and has already been visited by Herman Cain, who complained about the damage being done to the nation by “stupid” people).

…the CPAC contingent this week will include Peter Brimelow, the notorious race-baiting activist who founded VDARE.com, an anti-immigration website that has long been described by the Southern Poverty Law Center as a hate site. Brimelow’s website regularly publishes the work of white supremacist and anti-Semitic writers.

Joining Brimelow on at least one panel will be Robert Vandervoort, identified by CPAC as executive director of ProEnglish, a group advocating “English-only” policies—but Vandervoort is also the former organizer of the “Chicagoland Friends of American Renaissance,” another white nationalist hate group that is affiliated with the same racist authors who appear on Brimelow’s website. Their panel is called “The Failure of Multiculturalism: How the Pursuit of Diversity Is Weakening the American Identity.”

Read on:
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/white_nationalists_share_spotlight_with_gop_at_cpac_20120212/
Majority Will says:

February 13, 2012 at 9:58 am Majority Will(Quote)

“Obama campaign launches ‘truth team'”

(excerpts) President Obama’s re-election team on Monday rolled out a campaign to recruit two million supporters to help debunk attacks on the president’s record and hit back at his Republican rivals.

Called the “Truth Team,” the new effort will engage Obama supporters online and in person, encouraging them to communicate with undecided voters about the president’s record . . .

The “Truth Team” website highlights the effort’s three goals, each of which have their own website: AttackWatch.com will defend the president against false attacks, KeepingGOPHonest.com will fact check Republicans’ claims about their own records, and KeepingHisWord.com will tout the president’s record.

In 2008, more than a million people participated in Mr. Obama’s similar “Fight the Smears” initiative. This year, the campaign hopes to double that number before the Democratic National Convention in the fall.

(source: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57376463-503544/obama-campaign-launches-truth-team/)
John Potter says:

February 13, 2012 at 11:49 pm John Potter(Quote)

And Now ….
A Nerdy Tale of Stupefying Ignorance

All along I have wondered just how birthers can possibly believe the tales they are telling, and buy the ideas they’ve swallowed. Do they really believe, or are they just parroting, using these memes as props and justifications for their otherwise unacceptable objections to Obama?

Apparently they do believe. But why? And how?

Because they don’t know any better. They literally don’t know any better. Literally!

Perhaps they once knew better, but have allowed their fears and desires to clear the slate, to remove any possible conflicts with more “comforting” explanations.

This often shows in little ways. But earlier tonight, I came across a demonstration of this phenomena that blew my mind.

A couple of hours ago, two birthers ‘discovered’ the Articles of Confederation.

Seriously.

And immediately attempted to fold them into their Vattelist crazy.

One of them has been presenting himself as a ‘constitutional expert’ in longwinded style, for nearly a year (that I know of!), the other is elderly, and simpler, claims to be a veteran. The ‘expert’ discovered an article about the origins of citizenship, mentioned the dates 1776 and 1789, but seemed to be missing a piece. The older chap mentioned never having thought about what happened between the Revolution and the Constitution, did some digging, and came up with the closing of the Articles fom 1781. The ‘expert’ rejoiced as if the Missing Link had been found! Rejoiced!

The ‘expert’ had been revealed as a fool! He had held forth on the meaning of a document, with not a clue as to its origins!

I asked him to confirm he had not heard of the Articles before. His response was, “Oh, now you’re one of the knuckleheads that believes America was invented in 1776?”

He has taken this ‘discovery’ as further proof of his Vattelist beliefs.

Why do I continue to be surprised?

It’s been really quiet over there since The Discovery. Hopefully they’re rediscovering the rest of their misplaced civics. Confessing their sins to their 6th-grade civics teacher. Finally understanding all this business about English common law.

But no, they’re just revising and redecorating, filling in the details in the Halls of Madness.
Keith says:

February 14, 2012 at 12:13 am Keith(Quote)

Lamest. Conspiracy. Ever.
G says:

February 14, 2012 at 1:11 am G(Quote)

LOL! That was hilarious. Although I can top that cartoon with a serious lame crank who just came up with a whole new crazy theory claiming Obama’s birth in HI was faked.

With all the time Doc C has spent on researching the HI birth story issue, he would get a real kick out of this one:

http://thedailypen.blogspot.com/2012/02/vital-records-indicate-obama-not-born.html

Then again, it is a bit long and boring to weed through this “Penbrook One” and his crazy claims about Obama really being a Japanese immigrant or something stupid like that… And sadly, his long winded thesis of statistics matched with made up “conclusions” is only “Part One”… Yeah, that’s right – the new Japanese Obama myth will have a Part 2 & Part 3 to follow…

…Sounds like someone is trying to provide cometition to Sven and his “Barry & The Pirates” fan-fic…

Even more signs that this particular Birther is on the unstable side is where, in true comic-book villain fashion, he reveals his whole “motive” in coming up with all this…

Therefore, in order to circumvent the dereliction of cowardly judges , like Malihi, Lind, O’Carter, etc., we must continue to share the facts and allow this man to be tried against the blood-ransomed justice of public authority. Of course, we seek a sturdy judicial figure willing to evaluate the evidence on its merit but, until then, we will continue to delegitimize this usurper where he now stands before our judgment, with the truth.

For every moment that Obama must conceal another piece of his identity he becomes less of a real man. Every day, he becomes more of a phantom, a ghost, a false shadow figure.

For every piece of evidence denied by a judge ignoring his/her oath of sworn duty to our rule of law , for every American citizen who has sacrificed his life for the freedom of this nation, for every drop of blood that has been shed for our liberty, the abettors of this man’s lies will stand convicted on each count, and they will be punished.

Oooh… *threaty*…

Keith: Lamest. Conspiracy. Ever.
The Magic M says:

February 14, 2012 at 4:56 am The Magic M(Quote)

G: the new Japanese Obama myth

Actually, I think I’ve read this one before. The long-winded babbling about statistics as “proof” of “inconsistencies”… And it hasn’t improved since then. Au contraire, it reads suspiciously like the Martha Trowbridge fiction, both in style and content.

I’m not sure where the guy is going with the Japan angle, but I don’t think he’ll claim Obama is Japanese. Just like any piece of fiction, it offers more than just one storyline, that’s all.
Dr. Conspiracy says:

February 14, 2012 at 7:59 am Dr. Conspiracy(Quote)

That one was actually interesting. The fallacy is that Penbrook misrepresents his sources. The defect is in this paragraph:

In Hawaii in 1961, birth registration records were collected by the State of Hawaii’s Department of Health each week for births registered throughout the five regional offices between the previous Sunday at Midnight through Saturday at 11:59 p.m. Records from the five reporting counties were grouped in order by their geographic reference code into the seven groups shown above. Then the state of Hawaii’s Vital Statistics Registrar assigned birth registration numbers based, first, on regional occurrence with secondary consideration for chronological occurrence, as so stated in the 1961 Vital Statistics of the U.S. Report in Section 5, pg. 5-8.

Penbrook inconveniently omits a hyperlink to the 1961 document, perhaps because it doesn’t say what he claims that it does. What the Vital Statistics document actually says is that most states number certificates when they come in and most records come in in batches from regional offices; therefore, if you send just the even-numbered certificates to the NCHS for statistical purposes, the sample is unbiased. There’s nothing in the NCHS document about putting anything in birth order. Plus we know from the available sample certificates that they aren’t chronological.

G: With all the time Doc C has spent on researching the HI birth story issue, he would get a real kick out of this one:

http://thedailypen.blogspot.com/2012/02/vital-records-indicate-obama-not-born.html
G says:

February 14, 2012 at 9:17 am G(Quote)

Agreed. Yeah, he’s been out there awhile…so most of this isn’t really “new” from him either. He seems to have a 600 page “ebook” chock full of the same cr@pola.

His specialty is misrepresenting statistics and throwing a lot of words together in the attempt to come across as if he’s some professional and knowledgeable authority. Doing so allows him to attempt to sneak in a lot of made up “connectivity” and speculative nonsense that he tries to pass off as “matter of fact”, when it most certainly is not. He’s also quite adept at the sleight of hand trickery of misleading his readers to connect dots that have no meaningful correlation in the first place.

But this was a newly released “post” for him… and his new “three part thesis” is now attempting to make some additional claims about HI birth filing & indexing stats & also bringing Japan into the mix… so there is some new ground of mythmaking that he’s attempting here.

He seems to be using the Japan angle to try to build a case for claiming that HI was a haven for “foreign anchor babies” to get fraudulent birth certificates… *rolls eyes*

So yeah, like another Martha Trowbridge or Sven.

The Magic M: Actually, I think I’ve read this one before. The long-winded babbling about statistics as “proof” of “inconsistencies”… And it hasn’t improved since then. Au contraire, it reads suspiciously like the Martha Trowbridge fiction, both in style and content. I’m not sure where the guy is going with the Japan angle, but I don’t think he’ll claim Obama is Japanese. Just like any piece of fiction, it offers more than just one storyline, that’s all.
G says:

February 14, 2012 at 9:24 am G(Quote)

Good catch on that paragraph! That’s one of the reasons I’m glad you had a chance to read it too – as only your experience might catch a detail like that!

Obviously, there are tons of other given fallacies and flaws in his whole spiel. It looks like he’s trying to put a new spin on the long debunked Sun Yat Sen claims… and create a whole imaginary “illegal alien birth smuggling ring” out of it… and even more ludicrous – “conveniently” stretch those types of claims all the way from Sun’s pre-HI state days, all the way into the 1970’s…

Of course, his misleads his readers with incorrect claims about what the HI Homelands program is about and how it works and is also trying to push the long debunked notion that HI BCs for foreign births would somehow list HI birthplace locations on them…

There’s a lot more wrong to his lenghty spiel than that, but those come across to me as some of the most egregious and flagrant fallacies…

Dr. Conspiracy: That one was actually interesting. The fallacy is that Penbrook misrepresents his sources. The defect is in this paragraph:
Dr. Conspiracy says:

February 14, 2012 at 5:41 pm Dr. Conspiracy(Quote)

Fashion news at the Taitz blog:

“Great Job Orly! You are doning the things us lesser humans can only dream about.”

That should be spelled “donning.”
Squeeky Fromm says:

February 14, 2012 at 7:50 pm Squeeky Fromm(Quote)

Well, I just took on Joseph Farah and WND. “Joseph Farah Goes “Over The Edge”

http://birtherthinktank.wordpress.com/2012/02/14/joseph-farah-goes-over-the-edge/

Squeeky Fromm
Girl Reporter
John Potter says:

February 14, 2012 at 11:57 pm John Potter(Quote)

Squeeky Fromm: Well, I just took on Joseph Farah and WND. “Joseph Farah Goes “Over The Edge”

Good write-up Squeeky!

I saw that clip on FOX and thought, “What’s Farah doing on FOX again? Surely he won’t blow it by going there … oh, he just went there … geeeez”

But that’s why he was on!

FOX wants Farah to birf on air! So they can pretend to be above it, yet still send it to their audience, *wink wink, nudge nudge* style. “It’s not us, it’s that guy.” Right.

“Birtherism is a losing issue. Thus, we will continue to give a voice to the King of Birtherism.”

Duhhhhhhhhh.

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